EPAC: DOLORES - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 JUL 2015 Time : 054500 UTC
Lat : 17:15:42 N Lon : 107:06:30 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.2 / 985.7mb/ 69.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.2 4.4 4.4

Center Temp : -76.5C Cloud Region Temp : -75.1C

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015
300 AM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015

The satellite presentation overnight shows an improved cloud
pattern with a well-developed symmetric Central Dense Overcast and
cloud tops of -80 degrees C. Microwave overpasses also indicate
developing spiral bands over the western portion of the cyclone.
Objective and subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates along
with an earlier AMSU-B estimate support increasing the initial
intensity to 70 kt. There is some northerly shear that appears to
be impinging on the northwestern quadrant of the system but,
guidance indicates that the shear will relax within the next 12-24
hours and the upper flow pattern over the southern half of the
system is quite diffluent. The intensity forecast continues to
reflect strengthening to a major hurricane in 36-48 hours as
indicated by the SHIPS model and the GFS, which has been exhibiting
some intensity skill this season. Afterward, gradual weakening is
forecast as the cyclone moves over cooler water and into the
southern extent of a southward propagating stable air mass.

A series of microwave overpasses suggest that Dolores is moving
slightly to the left of track or, westward at 280/5 kt within
the weak peripheral flow of a ridge stretching over Texas and
northern Mexico. Dynamical guidance indicates that this current
motion is temporary, however, and a turn back toward the
west-northwest is expected later today and should continue during
the next couple of days. Beyond the 48 hour period, the global
models show the ridge strengthening and building westward into Baja
California. This change in the synoptic steering pattern should
cause Dolores to gradually increase in forward speed while
continuing on a west-northwest heading through 96 hours. At the
end of the period, the forecast indicates a turn toward the
northwest which is based on the GFEX, a blend of the GFS and ECMWF
global models. The NHC forecast has been adjusted slightly to the
right of the previous forecast to correspond with the GFEX and TVCN
consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 17.3N 107.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 17.5N 108.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 17.9N 108.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 18.4N 109.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 19.0N 110.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 20.4N 113.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 18/0600Z 21.9N 116.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 19/0600Z 24.5N 120.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

[tolakram]

Live IR loop

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-W%20PACUS&lat=19&lon=-110&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&type=Animation&quality=95&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=6

color

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-W%20PACUS&lat=19&lon=-110&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&type=Animation&quality=95&palette=ir2.pal&numframes=6

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* DOLORES EP052015 07/14/15 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 70 74 80 86 92 99 103 100 92 79 66 55 46
V (KT) LAND 70 74 80 86 92 99 103 100 92 79 66 55 46
V (KT) LGE mod 70 74 77 80 83 87 90 89 83 74 64 52 41
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 10 11 6 3 4 3 6 3 8 8 8 4 7
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -3 -3 -2 -5 -3 -1 -3 1 2 6 0
SHEAR DIR 313 327 358 341 357 88 69 71 46 88 51 47 319
SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.1 28.5 27.7 27.0 26.1 25.3 24.3 23.0 22.7
POT. INT. (KT) 162 161 158 156 153 148 140 133 124 116 106 92 89
200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.5 -51.3 -51.5 -51.5 -50.7 -50.9 -50.2 -50.8 -50.4 -50.9 -50.6 -50.8
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 6 6 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 3
700-500 MB RH 77 75 75 74 72 72 68 64 62 56 53 46 46
MODEL VTX (KT) 23 27 29 30 32 34 38 38 37 34 30 28 25
850 MB ENV VOR 12 18 32 52 46 72 69 93 81 103 97 68 62
200 MB DIV 66 72 89 67 69 73 49 45 -1 15 -11 27 4
700-850 TADV 0 1 1 0 0 -3 -5 -1 -3 1 -3 2 -3
LAND (KM) 366 395 425 439 456 446 398 416 473 511 610 624 643
LAT (DEG N) 17.6 17.8 17.9 18.2 18.4 18.9 19.6 20.3 21.0 21.8 22.6 23.9 25.6
LONG(DEG W) 107.9 108.4 108.8 109.2 109.5 110.4 111.5 112.9 114.4 116.1 117.8 119.5 121.0
STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 4 5 6 7 8 8 9 10 10 10
HEAT CONTENT 27 24 21 19 17 11 6 1 9 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 0. -4. -7. -11. -15.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 9. 9.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -13.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 6. 9. 14. 20. 21. 20. 16. 11. 7. 3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 16. 22. 29. 33. 30. 22. 9. -4. -15. -23.

** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052015 DOLORES 07/14/15 12 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 45% is 3.5 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 18% is 4.2 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015
900 AM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015

Dolores has continued to become better organized during the past
several hours. Microwave imagery indicates that a mid-level eye
has formed, and first-light visible images are showing a hint of
eye development as well. The initial intensity is increased to 75
kt based on a combination of subjective Dvorak Technique and AMSU
intensity estimates.

After its earlier westward turn, Dolores has resumed a
west-northwestward motion of 290/6. The hurricane is currently
being steered by a low- to mid-level level ridge over northern
Mexico. The dynamical models suggest the ridge should strengthen
during the next 48 hours of so, which should cause the storm to
move a bit faster toward the west-northwest. After 96 hours, the
ridge should weaken as a trough moves southward along the coast of
California. This evolution should allow Dolores to turn
northwestward by 120 hours. The new forecast track is similar
to, but a little faster than, the previous forecast. It lies near
the center of the guidance envelope through 96 hours and a little
left of the center of the envelope at 120 hours.

Dolores should continue to intensify through the next 36-48 hours
in an environment of warm water and light vertical wind shear, with
the biggest question being how strong will it get. The official
intensity forecast during this time follows the SHIPS model, which
is at the upper edge of the intensity guidance. However, the SHIPS
Rapid Intensification Index shows a 30 percent chance of a 30 kt
increase in intensity during the next 24 hours, so the current
intensity forecast could be conservative. Regardless of the actual
peak intensity, the cyclone should start a steady weakening trend
after 48 hours as it encounters cooler waters.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 17.7N 108.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 18.0N 108.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 18.5N 109.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 19.0N 110.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 19.7N 111.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 21.0N 114.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 18/1200Z 22.5N 117.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 19/1200Z 25.5N 121.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Yellow Evan]

Cloud tops warming for now, but microwave imagery shows a nice inner core. RI should start tonight.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 JUL 2015 Time : 144500 UTC
Lat : 17:41:30 N Lon : 108:10:36 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.2 / 985.5mb/ 69.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.1 4.0 4.0

ADT's falling for now

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015
300 PM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015

Dolores is developing a cloud-filled 20 n mi wide eye in visible
imagery, with the coldest cloud tops in the eyewall colder than
-80C. The initial intensity remains 75 kt based on AMSU estimates
and a Dvorak estimate from TAFB. While the hurricane has good
cirrus outflow, water vapor imagery and earlier microwave imagery
suggest that mid-level dry air is entraining into the southwestern
semicircle, possibly to near the eyewall.

The initial motion is now 295/6. The hurricane is currently
being steered by a low- to mid-level ridge over northern Mexico.
The dynamical models suggest the ridge should strengthen during the
next 48-72 hours, which should cause Dolores to move a bit faster
toward the west-northwest. After that time, the ridge should weaken
as a trough moves southward along the coast of California. This
evolution should allow Dolores to turn northwestward by 120 hours.
There is some spread in the model guidance during the 72-120 hour
period, with the Canadian, GFDL, UKMET, and several of the consensus
models showing a more northward motion than the GFS and ECMWF. This
part of the new forecast track will lean toward the GFS/ECMWF
solutions and thus lies to the left of the model consensus.

Dolores should continue to intensify through the next 36 hours or so
in an environment of warm water and light vertical wind shear. The
SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index still shows a 30 percent chance of
a 30 kt increase in intensity during the next 24 hours. However,
the dry air entraining into the cyclone makes it unclear whether
rapid intensification will occur. The new intensity forecast calls
for steady strengthening to a major hurricane in 36 hours, and it
is possible this part of the forecast is conservative. After 36-48
hours, Dolores is expected to encounter decreasing sea surface
temperatures, which should cause steady or rapid weakening.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 18.0N 108.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 18.4N 109.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 19.0N 110.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 19.6N 111.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 20.3N 112.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 21.5N 115.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 18/1800Z 23.5N 118.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 19/1800Z 27.0N 122.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Kingarabian]

[Yellow Evan]

ATCf had 90, but I'd go 95 since SAB DT is T5.5 and improved presentation and T6.5 raw ADT's.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015
900 PM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015

Dolores has intensified, with an eye becoming more apparent while
embedded within a very cold-topped central dense overcast (CDO), and
the only break in the CDO is over the northeastern quadrant. Dvorak
classifications from both TAFB and SAB yield an intensity of 90 kt,
and this will be the advisory intensity. The upper-level outflow is
becoming better defined and the dynamical model guidance indicates
that the vertical shear will be fairly weak for the next several
days. Therefore, additional strengthening is likely until
sea surface temperatures begin to cool in 48 to 72 hours. The
official intensity forecast is close to the Decay-SHIPS model and
now shows the system becoming a major hurricane sooner than in the
earlier NHC forecasts. This is consistent with the recently
observed strengthening trend, however.

The initial motion, based on reliable center fixes, remains 295/6
kt. There is little change to the track forecast philosophy. The
hurricane should continue to be steered by the flow on the western
side of a mid-tropospheric ridge, and continue to move on a
west-northwestward to northwestward heading. The official forecast
is to the left of the dynamical model consensus, which favors the
GFS and ECMWF solutions over the U.K. Met. Office and GFDL tracks
since the later two models appear to be unrealistically far to the
east.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 18.2N 109.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 18.6N 109.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 19.2N 110.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 20.0N 112.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 20.5N 113.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 21.5N 116.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 19/0000Z 24.0N 120.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 20/0000Z 27.0N 123.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[Yellow Evan]

Looks a pretty good bet for Cat 4 but CDO needs to warp around the eye more.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 JUL 2015 Time : 014500 UTC
Lat : 18:06:18 N Lon : 109:14:24 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.9 / 969.4mb/ 87.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.9 5.6 6.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 10 km

Center Temp : -28.1C Cloud Region Temp : -74.1C

Scene Type : EYE

[Yellow Evan]

Where is everyone? Normally EPAc monsters like these have like 15+ page threads in recent years.


----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 JUL 2015 Time : 024500 UTC
Lat : 18:02:26 N Lon : 109:20:06 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.4 / 959.8mb/ 99.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.4 5.6 6.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -15.7C Cloud Region Temp : -75.3C

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 JUL 2015 Time : 031500 UTC
Lat : 18:03:34 N Lon : 109:22:49 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.6 / 955.7mb/104.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.6 5.6 7.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -2.1C Cloud Region Temp : -76.2C

Scene Type : EYE

7.2 ADT wow.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Time for a special advisory--105kt? 110kt?

[Yellow Evan]

Looks around a T6.0.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 JUL 2015 Time : 034500 UTC
Lat : 18:04:43 N Lon : 109:25:28 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.6 / 955.7mb/104.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.6 5.7 7.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -2.5C Cloud Region Temp : -77.5C

Scene Type : EYE

Viewing angle inflating raw numbers a bit.

[Kingarabian]

Has to be a special advisory. Probably at 11PM PDT.




Hopefully it pulls a Celia and keeps going till Cat.5.

Compact core should raise that possibility.

[Kingarabian]