ATL: CLAUDETTE - Post-Tropical

#21 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 13, 2015 8:41 am

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 14m14 minutes ago
These non-tropical systems love to try in #ElNino years- looks like a race b/w convective organization & cold water!

#22 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Jul 13, 2015 9:21 am

It looks tropical, to me.

#23 Postby **TexasF6** » Mon Jul 13, 2015 9:30 am

This is a TS. It's very obvious. Beautiful banding, center wrapping up. Sooooo, why the lack of a name?

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#24 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Jul 13, 2015 9:38 am

TexasF6 wrote:This is a TS. It's very obvious. Beautiful banding, center wrapping up. Sooooo, why the lack of a name?

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Perhaps they're figuring it won't last long? I'm sure they're having discussions about whether it qualifies as a TS. At the very least it is subtropical, though I think it's tropical. Eric Blake's tweet indicated at least he thinks it isn't tropical. Regardless, we're issuing our own advisories, as we did 84 hours before the NHC named Bill. It isn't much of a threat except perhaps to offshore operators along the Nova Scotia and Newfoundland coasts. Squalls and rough seas as it passes.

#25 Postby **northjaxpro** » Mon Jul 13, 2015 9:39 am

Looks fairly well this morning. This is a TD, possibly a low end TS.

Hurricaneman · #26 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Mon Jul 13, 2015 10:34 am

It will probably be added post season

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#27 Postby **NDG** » Mon Jul 13, 2015 11:05 am

92L organized in a hurry this morning, yesterday evening it looked like it was dead. I agree with all, it is tropical.

#28 Postby **MGC** » Mon Jul 13, 2015 11:13 am

Looks darn close to being a TC or STC to me.......MGC

#29 Postby **NDG** » Mon Jul 13, 2015 11:17 am

Based on this morning's 12z tropical model runs 92L will not be going over sub 26 deg C waters until early tomorrow morning, I think the NHC may not have another option but to upgrade it later today.

Hammy · #30 Postby **Hammy** » Mon Jul 13, 2015 11:19 am

http://199.9.2.143/tcdat/tc15/ATL/92L.INVEST/tc_ssmis/color/2degreeticks/20150713.1222.f18.x.colorpct_91h_91v.92LINVEST.30kts-1008mb-368N-694W.96pc.jpg

Latest microwave pass shows a well defined inner convection, and there's an upper high that's formed just to the south which seems to be aiding in convection, and it still has at least 12 hours over water. I see no reason for this to have not been upgraded earlier this morning.

#31 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 13, 2015 11:20 am

What are they waiting for?

#32 Postby **NDG** » Mon Jul 13, 2015 11:27 am

Hammy wrote:http://199.9.2.143/tcdat/tc15/ATL/92L.INVEST/tc_ssmis/color/2degreeticks/20150713.1222.f18.x.colorpct_91h_91v.92LINVEST.30kts-1008mb-368N-694W.96pc.jpg

Latest microwave pass shows a well defined inner convection, and there's an upper high that's formed just to the south which seems to be aiding in convection, and it still has at least 12 hours over water. I see no reason for this to have not been upgraded earlier this morning.

It has a good 36 hrs over water hour per the consensus from the 12z tropical models.
Is the warm waters that it will be loosing by early tomorrow morning.

#33 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Jul 13, 2015 11:29 am

Looks like the NHC has finally decided to name it:

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1230 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special tropical weather outlook issued to update the discussion on
the low pressure system east of the United States mid-Atlantic
coast.

Satellite pictures indicate that shower and thunderstorm activity
associated with a low pressure system located about 450 miles east-
northeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, continues to become
better organized. Satellite wind data also indicate that the low's
circulation is well defined, with winds of tropical storm force.
Based on these data, advisories on a tropical storm will be issued
within the next hour. The low is expected to accelerate
northeastward during the next day or two, away from the U.S. coast.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain/Brown

#34 Postby **NDG** » Mon Jul 13, 2015 11:37 am

I am sure the NHC saw this ship report
From 12z this morning. 54 knot winds with 19 foot waves.

SHIP S 1200 36.00 -68.10 80 222 90 54.0 - 19.7
8.0 - - 29.80 -0.04 82.4 82.4 77.4 5 7 - - - - - - - ---- ----- - - - - - - -

galaxy401 · #35 Postby **galaxy401** » Mon Jul 13, 2015 11:55 am

I was thinking it wouldn't get upgraded until postseason but all evidence points to this being a TS. This storm reminds me of those East Coast Tropical storms that formed in 2011. So far we're beating last year and 2009.

#36 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 13, 2015 12:03 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032015
100 PM AST MON JUL 13 2015

...TROPICAL STORM FORMS WELL EAST OF THE UNITED STATES MID-ATLANTIC
COAST...
...NOT EXPECTED TO BE A THREAT TO THE UNITED STATES...

SUMMARY OF 100 PM AST...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.4N 68.1W
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM SSE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

Hammy · #37 Postby **Hammy** » Mon Jul 13, 2015 12:29 pm

I need to point out the irony that, with this year being compared to 1997 as far as El Nino, that the same list was used that year, and Claudette formed on the same day in roughly the same place.

#38 Postby **Alyono** » Mon Jul 13, 2015 12:39 pm

Hammy wrote:I need to point out the irony that, with this year being compared to 1997 as far as El Nino, that the same list was used that year, and Claudette formed on the same day in roughly the same place.

Claudette was the 4th storm of 1997, however

#39 Postby **tolakram** » Mon Jul 13, 2015 12:56 pm

Live visible loop:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=38&lon=-67&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=92&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10&mapcolor=gray

#40 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Jul 13, 2015 1:08 pm

I'm thinking the genesis time will be backed up to 0000Z or 0600Z.

ATL: CLAUDETTE - Post-Tropical

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