EPAC: FELICIA - Post-Tropical
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cycloneye
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EPAC: FELICIA - Post-Tropical
99E INVEST 150718 0600 7.6N 104.5W EPAC 25 1008
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT JUL 18 2015
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Dolores, located a few hundred miles west-southwest of Cabo
San Lazaro, Mexico.
1. Shower and thunderstorm activity has become a little better
organized near an area of low pressure located about 700 miles
south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form early next week while the system moves
northwestward at about 10 mph well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
Forecaster Berg
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT JUL 18 2015
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Dolores, located a few hundred miles west-southwest of Cabo
San Lazaro, Mexico.
1. Shower and thunderstorm activity has become a little better
organized near an area of low pressure located about 700 miles
south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form early next week while the system moves
northwestward at about 10 mph well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
Forecaster Berg
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Yellow Evan
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* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP992015 07/18/15 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 40 52 64 71 75 78 81 82 83
V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 40 52 64 71 75 78 81 82 83
V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 33 36 43 54 64 73 81 88 93 98
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 3 4 6 5 8 9 14 18 18 22 15 11 7
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 2 -1 0 0 -3 -4 -4 -3 -8 -6 -7 -5
SHEAR DIR 118 92 57 59 51 46 21 41 41 35 27 8 4
SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.2 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.4
POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 156 156 156 158 158 156 153 152 153 154 156
200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.2 -52.8 -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.1 -53.1 -52.9
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 6 7 6 7 6 7 6 6
700-500 MB RH 77 79 80 81 83 85 82 81 81 80 80 80 81
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 7 6 8 9 10 11 13 14 15 17
850 MB ENV VOR 17 14 16 11 8 23 22 13 0 6 11 10 9
200 MB DIV 91 96 98 108 118 121 137 112 80 68 89 78 84
700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -1 -3 -3 -1 -2 -2 -1 -2
LAND (KM) 1138 1157 1177 1183 1192 1224 1264 1302 1331 1374 1391 1365 1298
LAT (DEG N) 7.6 7.7 7.8 8.0 8.2 8.7 9.2 9.8 10.4 10.7 11.2 11.7 12.6
LONG(DEG W) 104.5 105.2 105.8 106.6 107.3 108.9 110.4 112.0 113.2 114.1 114.8 115.3 115.8
STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 6 4 4 4 4
HEAT CONTENT 40 39 39 41 46 54 55 50 54 52 40 34 31
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 28. 32. 34. 36. 38.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 4. 5.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 12. 14. 15. 15. 14. 13.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 1. 0. -2. -4.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 27. 39. 46. 50. 53. 56. 58. 58.
** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992015 INVEST 07/18/15 06 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 102.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 63% is 4.8 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 44% is 5.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 27% is 4.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 21% is 4.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%)
* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP992015 07/18/15 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 30 34 39 45 58 68 76 79 81 85 88 91
V (KT) LAND 25 30 34 39 45 58 68 76 79 81 85 88 91
V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 31 35 39 48 60 72 82 90 97 105 111
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 2 6 8 12 11 9 14 15 17 17 9 6 7
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 1 1 0 -3 -4 -4 -2 -4 -6 -6 -6 -4
SHEAR DIR 79 36 47 59 62 48 27 42 35 38 42 36 52
SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.2 28.9
POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 156 156 157 158 156 155 154 156 156 154 151
200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -52.7 -53.1 -53.4 -52.8 -53.6 -52.8 -53.3 -52.6 -53.0 -52.4 -52.9
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 6
700-500 MB RH 78 77 80 82 84 84 83 80 80 79 79 79 79
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 7 8 10 10 11 13 14 16 18 21
850 MB ENV VOR 16 17 10 7 14 26 21 10 11 13 19 26 27
200 MB DIV 103 101 112 106 109 145 106 103 72 71 80 124 75
700-850 TADV -1 -2 -3 -3 -1 -3 -5 -3 -4 -1 0 0 -2
LAND (KM) 1138 1137 1134 1138 1148 1184 1223 1274 1336 1344 1354 1346 1334
LAT (DEG N) 8.0 8.3 8.6 8.9 9.2 9.8 10.4 11.0 11.5 12.0 12.4 12.9 13.6
LONG(DEG W) 105.4 106.2 106.9 107.7 108.4 110.0 111.6 113.1 114.4 115.5 116.5 117.2 118.0
STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 5 5 5 5
HEAT CONTENT 41 40 41 44 46 51 52 55 43 33 34 37 36
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 28. 32. 34. 37. 38.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 4. 5. 6.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. 15. 15.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -11.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 14. 19.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 14. 20. 33. 43. 51. 54. 56. 60. 63. 66.
** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992015 INVEST 07/18/15 12 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 106.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 79% is 6.1 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 58% is 6.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 41% is 6.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 34% is 7.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%)
Conditions look good now, but shear will increase but will likely only slow development, then relax again.
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP992015 07/18/15 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 40 52 64 71 75 78 81 82 83
V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 40 52 64 71 75 78 81 82 83
V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 33 36 43 54 64 73 81 88 93 98
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 3 4 6 5 8 9 14 18 18 22 15 11 7
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 2 -1 0 0 -3 -4 -4 -3 -8 -6 -7 -5
SHEAR DIR 118 92 57 59 51 46 21 41 41 35 27 8 4
SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.2 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.4
POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 156 156 156 158 158 156 153 152 153 154 156
200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.2 -52.8 -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.1 -53.1 -52.9
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 6 7 6 7 6 7 6 6
700-500 MB RH 77 79 80 81 83 85 82 81 81 80 80 80 81
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 7 6 8 9 10 11 13 14 15 17
850 MB ENV VOR 17 14 16 11 8 23 22 13 0 6 11 10 9
200 MB DIV 91 96 98 108 118 121 137 112 80 68 89 78 84
700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -1 -3 -3 -1 -2 -2 -1 -2
LAND (KM) 1138 1157 1177 1183 1192 1224 1264 1302 1331 1374 1391 1365 1298
LAT (DEG N) 7.6 7.7 7.8 8.0 8.2 8.7 9.2 9.8 10.4 10.7 11.2 11.7 12.6
LONG(DEG W) 104.5 105.2 105.8 106.6 107.3 108.9 110.4 112.0 113.2 114.1 114.8 115.3 115.8
STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 6 4 4 4 4
HEAT CONTENT 40 39 39 41 46 54 55 50 54 52 40 34 31
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 28. 32. 34. 36. 38.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 4. 5.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 12. 14. 15. 15. 14. 13.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 1. 0. -2. -4.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 27. 39. 46. 50. 53. 56. 58. 58.
** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992015 INVEST 07/18/15 06 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 102.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 63% is 4.8 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 44% is 5.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 27% is 4.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 21% is 4.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%)
* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP992015 07/18/15 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 30 34 39 45 58 68 76 79 81 85 88 91
V (KT) LAND 25 30 34 39 45 58 68 76 79 81 85 88 91
V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 31 35 39 48 60 72 82 90 97 105 111
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 2 6 8 12 11 9 14 15 17 17 9 6 7
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 1 1 0 -3 -4 -4 -2 -4 -6 -6 -6 -4
SHEAR DIR 79 36 47 59 62 48 27 42 35 38 42 36 52
SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.2 28.9
POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 156 156 157 158 156 155 154 156 156 154 151
200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -52.7 -53.1 -53.4 -52.8 -53.6 -52.8 -53.3 -52.6 -53.0 -52.4 -52.9
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 6
700-500 MB RH 78 77 80 82 84 84 83 80 80 79 79 79 79
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 7 8 10 10 11 13 14 16 18 21
850 MB ENV VOR 16 17 10 7 14 26 21 10 11 13 19 26 27
200 MB DIV 103 101 112 106 109 145 106 103 72 71 80 124 75
700-850 TADV -1 -2 -3 -3 -1 -3 -5 -3 -4 -1 0 0 -2
LAND (KM) 1138 1137 1134 1138 1148 1184 1223 1274 1336 1344 1354 1346 1334
LAT (DEG N) 8.0 8.3 8.6 8.9 9.2 9.8 10.4 11.0 11.5 12.0 12.4 12.9 13.6
LONG(DEG W) 105.4 106.2 106.9 107.7 108.4 110.0 111.6 113.1 114.4 115.5 116.5 117.2 118.0
STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 5 5 5 5
HEAT CONTENT 41 40 41 44 46 51 52 55 43 33 34 37 36
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 28. 32. 34. 37. 38.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 4. 5. 6.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. 15. 15.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -11.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 14. 19.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 14. 20. 33. 43. 51. 54. 56. 60. 63. 66.
** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992015 INVEST 07/18/15 12 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 106.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 79% is 6.1 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 58% is 6.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 41% is 6.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 34% is 7.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%)
Conditions look good now, but shear will increase but will likely only slow development, then relax again.
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Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15951
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- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139060
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E
Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with an area of
low pressure located about 700 miles south-southwest of Acapulco,
Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during
the early or middle part of next week while the system moves
northwestward at about 10 mph well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
low pressure located about 700 miles south-southwest of Acapulco,
Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during
the early or middle part of next week while the system moves
northwestward at about 10 mph well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
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Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15951
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
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Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15951
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP992015 07/18/15 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 41 51 60 66 69 72 78 81 83
V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 41 51 60 66 69 72 78 81 83
V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 37 44 53 60 69 80 91 100
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 5 9 14 14 12 12 19 19 17 12 7 2 4
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 2 -2 -6 -2 -6 -3 -5 -5 -7 -2 0
SHEAR DIR 20 27 44 54 56 27 30 40 35 31 29 358 22
SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.1
POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 156 157 158 158 156 154 154 155 155 155 153
200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.7 -53.2 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6
700-500 MB RH 79 81 83 84 84 82 81 80 78 79 78 78 77
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 8 8 9 10 10 11 12 14 15 17
850 MB ENV VOR 25 20 16 18 24 23 14 2 5 14 25 36 49
200 MB DIV 116 134 119 110 107 113 80 86 36 53 56 51 58
700-850 TADV -2 -3 -4 -2 -2 -5 -5 -3 -2 0 0 -1 -2
LAND (KM) 1150 1145 1146 1153 1162 1195 1229 1272 1322 1325 1333 1327 1307
LAT (DEG N) 8.1 8.4 8.7 9.1 9.4 10.0 10.7 11.3 11.8 12.1 12.4 12.8 13.4
LONG(DEG W) 105.9 106.7 107.4 108.2 109.0 110.5 112.1 113.4 114.5 115.3 116.1 116.7 117.3
STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 9 8 8 7 7 5 4 4 4 4
HEAT CONTENT 40 41 44 46 49 51 53 55 41 32 32 35 38
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 28. 32. 34. 36. 38.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 12.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 10. 10. 13.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 16. 26. 35. 41. 44. 47. 53. 56. 58.
** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992015 INVEST 07/18/15 18 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 44.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 117.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 86.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 53% is 4.1 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%)
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP992015 07/18/15 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 41 51 60 66 69 72 78 81 83
V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 41 51 60 66 69 72 78 81 83
V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 37 44 53 60 69 80 91 100
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 5 9 14 14 12 12 19 19 17 12 7 2 4
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 2 -2 -6 -2 -6 -3 -5 -5 -7 -2 0
SHEAR DIR 20 27 44 54 56 27 30 40 35 31 29 358 22
SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.1
POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 156 157 158 158 156 154 154 155 155 155 153
200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.7 -53.2 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6
700-500 MB RH 79 81 83 84 84 82 81 80 78 79 78 78 77
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 8 8 9 10 10 11 12 14 15 17
850 MB ENV VOR 25 20 16 18 24 23 14 2 5 14 25 36 49
200 MB DIV 116 134 119 110 107 113 80 86 36 53 56 51 58
700-850 TADV -2 -3 -4 -2 -2 -5 -5 -3 -2 0 0 -1 -2
LAND (KM) 1150 1145 1146 1153 1162 1195 1229 1272 1322 1325 1333 1327 1307
LAT (DEG N) 8.1 8.4 8.7 9.1 9.4 10.0 10.7 11.3 11.8 12.1 12.4 12.8 13.4
LONG(DEG W) 105.9 106.7 107.4 108.2 109.0 110.5 112.1 113.4 114.5 115.3 116.1 116.7 117.3
STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 9 8 8 7 7 5 4 4 4 4
HEAT CONTENT 40 41 44 46 49 51 53 55 41 32 32 35 38
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 28. 32. 34. 36. 38.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 12.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 10. 10. 13.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 16. 26. 35. 41. 44. 47. 53. 56. 58.
** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992015 INVEST 07/18/15 18 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 44.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 117.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 86.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 53% is 4.1 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%)
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Hurricane Jed
- Category 2
- Posts: 542
- Age: 36
- Joined: Mon Jan 24, 2011 3:36 pm
- Location: Cen Tex
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT JUL 18 2015
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Dolores, located a few hundred miles southwest of Punta
Eugenia, Mexico.
Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with an area of
low pressure located about 700 miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the
early or middle part of next week while the system moves
northwestward at about 10 mph well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
$$
Forecaster Stewart
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT JUL 18 2015
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Dolores, located a few hundred miles southwest of Punta
Eugenia, Mexico.
Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with an area of
low pressure located about 700 miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the
early or middle part of next week while the system moves
northwestward at about 10 mph well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15951
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
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Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15951
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
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Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15951
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP992015 07/19/15 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 37 44 53 64 70 75 79 83 88 88
V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 37 44 53 64 70 75 79 83 88 88
V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 33 40 49 60 71 84 95 104 110
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 8 12 13 13 11 15 15 15 15 10 6 5 9
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 -1 -5 -4 -5 -4 -3 -5 -5 0 0 0
SHEAR DIR 67 55 62 66 70 41 48 41 42 47 52 58 68
SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.1
POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 157 158 158 158 156 157 157 156 155 155 153
200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -52.8 -53.4 -52.6 -53.1 -52.6 -53.0 -52.5 -52.9 -52.5
TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 7 6 6
700-500 MB RH 80 81 83 82 81 79 77 76 76 75 71 73 73
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 10 10 10 11 11 12 14 15 17 18
850 MB ENV VOR 18 14 11 13 13 11 4 0 12 22 42 47 52
200 MB DIV 124 108 106 100 107 82 94 50 63 21 39 42 55
700-850 TADV -3 -5 -3 -2 -3 -5 -3 -3 0 0 -1 -3 -2
LAND (KM) 1041 1039 1044 1044 1049 1081 1118 1181 1204 1215 1209 1187 1120
LAT (DEG N) 9.3 9.7 10.0 10.4 10.8 11.4 12.1 12.5 12.9 13.1 13.4 13.8 14.7
LONG(DEG W) 106.4 107.2 107.9 108.6 109.3 110.8 112.2 113.4 114.4 115.1 115.6 115.9 116.2
STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 4 3 2 4 4
HEAT CONTENT 40 42 45 49 51 51 61 68 47 34 34 37 44
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 29. 32. 35. 37. 39.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 16. 16. 16. 16.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 9. 11. 14. 15.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 12. 19. 28. 39. 45. 50. 54. 58. 63. 63.
** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992015 INVEST 07/19/15 00 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 45.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 109.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 2.8 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%)
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP992015 07/19/15 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 37 44 53 64 70 75 79 83 88 88
V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 37 44 53 64 70 75 79 83 88 88
V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 33 40 49 60 71 84 95 104 110
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 8 12 13 13 11 15 15 15 15 10 6 5 9
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 -1 -5 -4 -5 -4 -3 -5 -5 0 0 0
SHEAR DIR 67 55 62 66 70 41 48 41 42 47 52 58 68
SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.1
POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 157 158 158 158 156 157 157 156 155 155 153
200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -52.8 -53.4 -52.6 -53.1 -52.6 -53.0 -52.5 -52.9 -52.5
TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 7 6 6
700-500 MB RH 80 81 83 82 81 79 77 76 76 75 71 73 73
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 10 10 10 11 11 12 14 15 17 18
850 MB ENV VOR 18 14 11 13 13 11 4 0 12 22 42 47 52
200 MB DIV 124 108 106 100 107 82 94 50 63 21 39 42 55
700-850 TADV -3 -5 -3 -2 -3 -5 -3 -3 0 0 -1 -3 -2
LAND (KM) 1041 1039 1044 1044 1049 1081 1118 1181 1204 1215 1209 1187 1120
LAT (DEG N) 9.3 9.7 10.0 10.4 10.8 11.4 12.1 12.5 12.9 13.1 13.4 13.8 14.7
LONG(DEG W) 106.4 107.2 107.9 108.6 109.3 110.8 112.2 113.4 114.4 115.1 115.6 115.9 116.2
STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 4 3 2 4 4
HEAT CONTENT 40 42 45 49 51 51 61 68 47 34 34 37 44
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 29. 32. 35. 37. 39.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 16. 16. 16. 16.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 9. 11. 14. 15.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 12. 19. 28. 39. 45. 50. 54. 58. 63. 63.
** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992015 INVEST 07/19/15 00 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 45.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 109.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 2.8 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%)
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cycloneye
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- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN JUL 19 2015
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located about 700 miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, have
changed little in organization overnight. Environmental conditions
remain conducive for development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the next day or two while the system moves
northwestward at about 10 mph well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
Forecaster Brown
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN JUL 19 2015
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located about 700 miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, have
changed little in organization overnight. Environmental conditions
remain conducive for development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the next day or two while the system moves
northwestward at about 10 mph well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
Forecaster Brown
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Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15951
- Age: 25
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* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP992015 07/19/15 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 35 40 50 57 63 68 73 78 80 83
V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 35 40 50 57 63 68 73 78 80 83
V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 35 40 45 54 65 77 87 95
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 12 14 15 19 22 17 14 12 5 5 3 4 5
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -3 -4 -2 -3 -1 -3 -5 -7 -6 -2 -1 -5
SHEAR DIR 49 31 27 33 33 37 13 7 356 353 42 50 40
SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.0 28.7 28.1 27.6
POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 159 160 160 158 159 158 157 153 150 144 138
200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -52.7 -53.4 -53.5 -52.5 -53.3 -52.3 -52.9 -52.5 -53.0 -52.4 -52.9
TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 6 6 5 4
700-500 MB RH 85 84 82 80 80 78 78 76 74 72 70 69 68
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 10 10 11 11 13 13 13 14 17 19 21 24
850 MB ENV VOR 8 15 13 8 3 -6 -19 -22 -17 -9 -11 4 6
200 MB DIV 114 118 134 116 98 89 47 51 56 84 45 36 9
700-850 TADV -2 -4 -7 -11 -10 -6 -4 -2 -1 -1 -3 -1 -4
LAND (KM) 1006 1000 1001 1012 1027 1044 1095 1116 1106 1096 1102 1105 1085
LAT (DEG N) 9.6 10.1 10.5 10.9 11.3 12.2 12.9 13.6 14.2 14.9 15.5 16.4 17.3
LONG(DEG W) 106.3 107.2 108.0 108.9 109.7 111.3 112.7 114.0 115.1 116.1 117.0 118.0 119.0
STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 6 6 7 6
HEAT CONTENT 38 41 44 48 50 56 67 52 35 41 36 26 17
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 23. 29. 33. 35. 36. 38.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 8. 7. 7.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 7. 8. 10. 13. 17. 19. 23.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 15. 25. 32. 38. 43. 48. 53. 55. 58.
** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992015 INVEST 07/19/15 12 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 44.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 116.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%)
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP992015 07/19/15 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 35 40 50 57 63 68 73 78 80 83
V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 35 40 50 57 63 68 73 78 80 83
V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 35 40 45 54 65 77 87 95
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 12 14 15 19 22 17 14 12 5 5 3 4 5
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -3 -4 -2 -3 -1 -3 -5 -7 -6 -2 -1 -5
SHEAR DIR 49 31 27 33 33 37 13 7 356 353 42 50 40
SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.0 28.7 28.1 27.6
POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 159 160 160 158 159 158 157 153 150 144 138
200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -52.7 -53.4 -53.5 -52.5 -53.3 -52.3 -52.9 -52.5 -53.0 -52.4 -52.9
TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 6 6 5 4
700-500 MB RH 85 84 82 80 80 78 78 76 74 72 70 69 68
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 10 10 11 11 13 13 13 14 17 19 21 24
850 MB ENV VOR 8 15 13 8 3 -6 -19 -22 -17 -9 -11 4 6
200 MB DIV 114 118 134 116 98 89 47 51 56 84 45 36 9
700-850 TADV -2 -4 -7 -11 -10 -6 -4 -2 -1 -1 -3 -1 -4
LAND (KM) 1006 1000 1001 1012 1027 1044 1095 1116 1106 1096 1102 1105 1085
LAT (DEG N) 9.6 10.1 10.5 10.9 11.3 12.2 12.9 13.6 14.2 14.9 15.5 16.4 17.3
LONG(DEG W) 106.3 107.2 108.0 108.9 109.7 111.3 112.7 114.0 115.1 116.1 117.0 118.0 119.0
STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 6 6 7 6
HEAT CONTENT 38 41 44 48 50 56 67 52 35 41 36 26 17
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 23. 29. 33. 35. 36. 38.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 8. 7. 7.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 7. 8. 10. 13. 17. 19. 23.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 15. 25. 32. 38. 43. 48. 53. 55. 58.
** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992015 INVEST 07/19/15 12 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 44.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 116.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%)
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Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
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- Contact:
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Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15951
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
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- Contact:
Still T1.5 from SAB. Not bad though, and the systems has more convection than it did last night and has a great moisture envelope.
TXPZ23 KNES 191208
TCSENP
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (99E)
B. 19/1145Z
C. 9.4N
D. 107.8W
E. FIVE/GOES-E
F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...SYSTEM STILL ORGANIZING SLOWLY WITH DT=1.5 ON ALMOST 3/10
BANDING. MET=1.5 ON SLOW CURVE AND PAT ALSO 1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...SWANSON
TXPZ23 KNES 191208
TCSENP
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (99E)
B. 19/1145Z
C. 9.4N
D. 107.8W
E. FIVE/GOES-E
F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...SYSTEM STILL ORGANIZING SLOWLY WITH DT=1.5 ON ALMOST 3/10
BANDING. MET=1.5 ON SLOW CURVE AND PAT ALSO 1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...SWANSON
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TheStormExpert
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cycloneye
- Admin
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN JUL 19 2015
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located about 650 miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, are
gradually becoming better organized. Environmental conditions are
expected to remain conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the next day or so while the
system moves northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
Forecaster Brown
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN JUL 19 2015
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located about 650 miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, are
gradually becoming better organized. Environmental conditions are
expected to remain conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the next day or so while the
system moves northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
Forecaster Brown
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Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15951
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
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- Contact:
* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP992015 07/19/15 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 43 50 57 67 73 79 82 88 89 86
V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 43 50 57 67 73 79 82 88 89 86
V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 39 42 49 58 70 83 94 102 104 99
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 15 17 21 23 21 14 13 10 7 2 4 8 11
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 -5 -5 0 -5 -3 -6 -1 -3 -2 -1
SHEAR DIR 29 29 27 34 39 31 17 16 2 30 91 98 69
SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.4 29.1 28.7 28.0 27.6 27.1
POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 160 161 159 160 160 157 154 151 143 139 134
200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.6 -53.3 -53.5 -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.3 -52.5
TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 6 6 4 4 3
700-500 MB RH 85 82 81 81 80 78 75 73 71 70 67 63 59
MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 12 13 14 13 14 16 19 21 24 27 27
850 MB ENV VOR 25 22 15 8 7 -2 -6 -5 0 7 22 42 46
200 MB DIV 130 138 124 113 106 85 58 48 58 75 37 30 3
700-850 TADV -5 -7 -12 -11 -9 -3 -3 -2 -2 -3 -2 -1 0
LAND (KM) 1007 989 976 982 984 1039 1118 1120 1108 1125 1161 1154 1146
LAT (DEG N) 9.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 107.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 11 10 9 7 6 6 8 8 8 7
HEAT CONTENT 40 43 49 55 56 61 56 35 41 37 28 17 11
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 664 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 21. 27. 30. 31. 32. 33.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 4. 5.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. 8.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 9. 13. 16. 21. 24. 25.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 4. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 20. 27. 37. 43. 49. 52. 58. 59. 56.
** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992015 INVEST 07/19/15 18 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 48.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 122.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%)
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP992015 07/19/15 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 43 50 57 67 73 79 82 88 89 86
V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 43 50 57 67 73 79 82 88 89 86
V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 39 42 49 58 70 83 94 102 104 99
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 15 17 21 23 21 14 13 10 7 2 4 8 11
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 -5 -5 0 -5 -3 -6 -1 -3 -2 -1
SHEAR DIR 29 29 27 34 39 31 17 16 2 30 91 98 69
SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.4 29.1 28.7 28.0 27.6 27.1
POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 160 161 159 160 160 157 154 151 143 139 134
200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.6 -53.3 -53.5 -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.3 -52.5
TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 6 6 4 4 3
700-500 MB RH 85 82 81 81 80 78 75 73 71 70 67 63 59
MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 12 13 14 13 14 16 19 21 24 27 27
850 MB ENV VOR 25 22 15 8 7 -2 -6 -5 0 7 22 42 46
200 MB DIV 130 138 124 113 106 85 58 48 58 75 37 30 3
700-850 TADV -5 -7 -12 -11 -9 -3 -3 -2 -2 -3 -2 -1 0
LAND (KM) 1007 989 976 982 984 1039 1118 1120 1108 1125 1161 1154 1146
LAT (DEG N) 9.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 107.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 11 10 9 7 6 6 8 8 8 7
HEAT CONTENT 40 43 49 55 56 61 56 35 41 37 28 17 11
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 664 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 21. 27. 30. 31. 32. 33.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 4. 5.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. 8.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 9. 13. 16. 21. 24. 25.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 4. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 20. 27. 37. 43. 49. 52. 58. 59. 56.
** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992015 INVEST 07/19/15 18 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 48.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 122.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%)
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Yellow Evan
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN JUL 19 2015
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a large low pressure
system located about 750 miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, are
continuing to become better organized. Satellite-derived wind data
indicate that the surface circulation has also become better
defined. If these recent development trends continue, then a
tropical depression or a tropical storm is likely to form later
tonight or on Monday while the system moves west-northwestward to
northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
Forecaster Stewart
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN JUL 19 2015
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a large low pressure
system located about 750 miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, are
continuing to become better organized. Satellite-derived wind data
indicate that the surface circulation has also become better
defined. If these recent development trends continue, then a
tropical depression or a tropical storm is likely to form later
tonight or on Monday while the system moves west-northwestward to
northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
Forecaster Stewart
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