BOB: Tropical Cyclone Komen

#41 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Wed Jul 29, 2015 7:58 pm

Alyono wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:45/985 mbar is likely good.

I just went with 50 kts an hour ago

SAB was at T3.0 and CI values from ADt are 41 knts. Justifiable though given the low pressure and earlier ASCAT pass though.

#42 Postby **Alyono** » Wed Jul 29, 2015 7:59 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
Alyono wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:45/985 mbar is likely good.

I just went with 50 kts an hour ago

SAB was at T3.0 and CI values from ADt are 41 knts. Justifiable though given the low pressure and earlier ASCAT pass though.

yep, ASCAT has been running above Dvorak. Plus, it appears to have intensified slightly on satellite imagery with the rainband becoming better defined and more intense, so I upped the winds

#43 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Wed Jul 29, 2015 8:03 pm

JTWC at 3.0 and they're usually conservative.

TPIO10 PGTW 300049 COR

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (S OF BANGLADESH)

B. 29/1930Z

C. 21.63N

D. 91.17E

E. FIVE/MET7

F. T3.0/3.0

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .60 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS
A 3.0 DT. MET YIELDS A 1.5 AND PT YIELDS A 2.5. DBO DT. COR
LINE D AFTER RE-EVALUATION.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
29/1948Z 21.55N 91.12E ATMS
29/2033Z 21.52N 91.00E MMHS

BERMEA

#44 Postby **Alyono** » Wed Jul 29, 2015 8:10 pm

I'm also at 3.0, but it is starting to get close to a 3.5 on recent imagery

#45 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Wed Jul 29, 2015 8:17 pm

Alyono wrote:I'm also at 3.0, but it is starting to get close to a 3.5 on recent imagery

I was sorta thinking the same. Has quite a bit of banding for a not the prettiest looking system.

#46 Postby **Alyono** » Wed Jul 29, 2015 10:46 pm

IMD FINALLY named this officially

jaguarjace · #47 Postby **jaguarjace** » Wed Jul 29, 2015 10:49 pm

THE DEEP DEPRESSION OVER NORTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL MOVED NORTHWESTWARDS DURING PAST 9 HRS,
INTENSIFIED INTO A CYCLONIC STORM, KOMEN AND LAY CENTRED AT 0000 UTC OF TODAY, THE 30 JULY 2015
NEAR LATITUDE 21.70N AND LONGITUDE 91.20E, 95 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CHITTAGONG (41977) AND
300 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KOLKATTA( 42907). THE SYSTEM WOULD MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS AND
CROSS BANGLADESH COAST BETWEEN LONGITUDE 90.5°E AND 91.0°E BY AFTERNOON OF TODAY THE 30TH
JULY 2015. AFTER LANDFALL, IT WOULD MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS AND WEAKEN GRADUALLY.
http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/images/bulletin/rsmc.pdf

galaxy401 · #48 Postby **galaxy401** » Thu Jul 30, 2015 9:53 am

WTIO31 PGTW 300900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (TWO) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (TWO) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 22.5N 91.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 22.5N 91.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 23.1N 91.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
300900Z POSITION NEAR 22.7N 91.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 12 NM NORTH OF
CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH, HAS TRACKED AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS MADE LANDFALL AND IS FAST DEGRADING DUE TO
FRICTIONAL EFFECTS. TC 02B IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INLAND AND WILL
DISSIPATE BY TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION OR RETURN INTO THE BAY OF BENGAL.
//
NNNN

#49 Postby **Alyono** » Thu Jul 30, 2015 10:46 am

one problem

Chittagong is reporting an EAST wind. Komen is not inland north of Chittagong based upon those obs

#50 Postby **Alyono** » Thu Jul 30, 2015 2:58 pm

http://www.thedailystar.net/country/4-k ... %99-119089

was not expecting WIND deaths from Komen. Worried about more flood deaths as the rainbands that were offshore are now spreading onshore

#51 Postby **Alyono** » Thu Jul 30, 2015 4:32 pm

unfortunately, there have also been fatalities in India from Komen as well

http://floodlist.com/asia/india-floods- ... -july-2015

#52 Postby **Alyono** » Fri Jul 31, 2015 9:52 am

causing severe flooding in India, with more than 30 dead, unfortunately. Shows the dangers of heavy rainfall and flooding, which still cause most of the deaths

http://www.newkerala.com/news/2015/fullnews-97032.html

#53 Postby **Alyono** » Fri Jul 31, 2015 7:05 pm

the large rainband is now spreading over Bangladesh. Now they will be getting their heaviest rainfall

#54 Postby **Alyono** » Sat Aug 01, 2015 11:01 pm

is there any way we can prevent death tolls like what we have seen in Komen from weak to moderate cyclones?

https://www.satyamthetruth.com/general/ ... tricts-hit

yes, there was a lot of rain. However, India did not get the worst of it. Why have they had the greatest death toll?

#55 Postby **Alyono** » Sun Aug 02, 2015 10:26 am

some of the flooding in Myanmar

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-33750690

#56 Postby **Alyono** » Tue Aug 04, 2015 12:49 pm

http://www.pressreader.com/zambia/the-p ... 7/TextView

Myanmar saying the situation is very bad there. May be several hundred dead. This may end up worse than Aila overall

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