EPAC: GUILLERMO - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

may end up with a landfall out of this

On Kauai?

[Yellow Evan]

may end up with a landfall out of this

On Kauai?

If CPHC track holds true yes.

[Yellow Evan]

18th storm to pass near Hawaii

WTPA44 PHFO 062034
TCDCP4

TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092015
1100 AM HST THU AUG 06 2015

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN PULSING THIS MORNING JUST
NORTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER AS GUILLERMO INTERACTS WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING OUTFLOWS
THAT HAVE DISRUPTED THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE COME IN AT 25 KT
FROM ALL THE FIX AGENCIES. A RAPIDSCAT PASS FROM EARLIER THIS
MORNING HAD SEVERAL UNCONTAMINATED 35 KT WIND BARBS. BASED ON THE
SCATTEROMETER DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT 35 KT
FOR THIS PACKAGE THOUGH THIS MAY BE GENEROUS GIVEN THE RECENT
DISRUPTION TO THE LOW LEVEL CENTER.

CIMSS VERTICAL SHEAR AT 1800 UTC WAS 47 KT AND WILL REMAIN OVER 40
KT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE AIRMASS AROUND GUILLERMO IS ALSO
RELATIVELY DRY. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD FURTHER WEAKEN GUILLERMO
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS UNTIL THE SYSTEM BECOMES A
POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW. IF DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
OUTFLOWS WHICH FURTHER DISRUPTS THE LOW LEVEL CENTER...DISSIPATION
COULD OCCUR SOONER.

THE CENTER OF GUILLERMO HAS BEEN MOVING AT 270/09 KT WITHIN THE LOW
LEVEL STEERING CURRENT. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR CONTINUED
GENERAL WESTWARD MOVEMENT TODAY FOLLOWED BY A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION AFTERWARD. THIS MOTION IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 24 HOURS AND SOUTH OF AND PARALLEL TO ALL
OF THE OBJECTIVE AIDS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 21.7N 155.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 21.8N 157.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 22.4N 159.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 22.9N 162.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 23.4N 165.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KODAMA

[AbcdeerHI]

may end up with a landfall out of this

On Kauai?

[Kingarabian]

Wow that LLC will almost certainly hit Oahu if it continues to track like that. Fortunately the strongest winds are to the north east.

I know exactly ZERO people who prepared.

[Yellow Evan]

There's nothing to prepare for. This is a naked swirl.

[AbcdeerHI]

Looks like the llc is getting buffered by the islands. Maybe it will travel parallel to the islands?

[Yellow Evan]

Yes and no. Turning due W since it appears Maui is spitting it out of course. That'd put it on course for this to pass near Kaui/

[Yellow Evan]

WTPA44 PHFO 071458
TCDCP4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER 35
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092015
500 AM HST FRI AUG 07 2015

A PARTIAL NARROW RING OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND SCATTERED
TOWERING CUMULUS CLOUDS HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEMICIRCLE OF GUILLERMO. HOWEVER...THE REMAINDER OF THE CIRCULATION
HAS NO DEEP CONVECTION...AND THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION APPEARS
TO BE ALMOST COMPLETELY CLOUD FREE. SINCE THERE IS NO DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE INNER CORE OF THIS SYSTEM...IT IS EVIDENT THAT
GUILLERMO HAS CONTINUED TO LOSE TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARACTERISTICS
TONIGHT. MORE IMPORTANTLY...AN ASCAT PASS OVER THE CORE OF GUILLERMO
AROUND 0801Z SHOWED NO CLOSED CIRCULATION AT THE SURFACE. INSTEAD...
THERE APPEARED TO BE A NORTH-NORTHEAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED
SURFACE TROUGH UNDERNEATH A RATHER WELL-DEFINED CLOUD LEVEL
CIRCULATION. THE ASCAT DATA ALSO SHOWED A NEARLY 105 NM WIDE BAND OF
25 TO 30 KT WINDS ALONG THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THIS
TROUGH. WINDS ALONG AND ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS WERE 20 KT
OR LESS. ALSO...NO SATELLITE FIX AGENCY WAS ABLE TO CLASSIFY
GUILLERMO FOR THIS ADVISORY. AS A RESULT...GUILLERMO IS BEING
DECLARED A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AS OF THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE.

THE CURRENT MOTION FOR THE REMNANTS OF GUILLERMO IS 285 DEGREES AT
15 KT. THE FINAL FORECAST TRACK SHOWS GUILLERMO WILL CONTINUE
THIS SAME GENERAL MOVEMENT FOLLOWING A RELATIVELY TIGHT CLUSTER OF
GUIDANCE INTO SATURDAY. THE TRUNCATED TRACK MOST CLOSELY RESEMBLES
THE LATEST ECMWF GUIDANCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED
ON THE EARLIER ASCAT PASS. ASSUMING THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE REMNANTS OF GUILLERMO AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FAR
NORTH OF HAWAII REMAINS IN PLACE...WINDS OF 30 KT WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TODAY. HOWEVER...AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEAKENS...THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT...WITH DISSIPATION LIKELY OCCURRING BY
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL ADVISORY ISSUED ON THIS
SYSTEM...UNLESS RE-GENERATION OCCURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW...PLEASE SEE HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER HFOHSFNP AND WMO HEADER FZPN40 PHFO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 22.7N 158.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 23.3N 161.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 08/1200Z 24.2N 164.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON

If there's no closed LLC, this shouldn't be Post-tropical. This should be Remnants of Guillermo.