WPAC: SOUDELOR - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

EURO 897 mb!

[cycloneye]

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000
WTPQ31 PGUM 310918
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (13W) ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP132015
800 PM CHST FRI JUL 31 2015

...TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR MAINTAINING INTENSITY...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN...ALAMAGAN...SAIPAN
AND TINIAN IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN...ALAMAGAN...
SAIPAN AND TINIAN IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 156.0E

ABOUT 760 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT 735 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN ISLAND
ABOUT 720 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT 690 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 700 MILES EAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 725 MILES EAST OF ROTA AND
ABOUT 755 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 156.0
DEGREES EAST. MOVEMENT IS TO THE WEST AT 15 MPH. SOUDELOR IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
ON A TRACK THAT WOULD TAKE IT THROUGH THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS
NEAR ALAMAGAN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 45 MPH. TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND MAY BECOME A TYPHOON
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 PM THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 200 AM SATURDAY MORNING.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE

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WDPN31 PGTW 310900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 13W (SOUDELOR) WARNING
NR 05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 13W (SOUDELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 627 NM
EAST OF SAIPAN, CNMI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED OVERALL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE EVEN AS A TUTT
CELL TO THE NORTH IS CAUSING SUBSIDENCE AND HAMPERING
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE MSI LOOP AND ON A LOW REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURE
ON THE 310411Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
MAINTAINED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES,
AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH MODERATE VWS OFFSET BY POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
STR TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 13W IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR.
WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE ON THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM MAY INHIBIT RAPID INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT TERM, EXPECT A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 72 DUE TO GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, DECREASING VWS, AND HIGH OHC THROUGH THE NORTHERN MARIANAS
ISLAND CHAIN.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, THE PERSISTENT CONDUCIVE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE ALLOWING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 125 KNOTS BY
TAU 96. EXPECT A SLIGHTLY MORE POLEWARD TRACK AFTERWARDS AS THE DEEP
STR OVER JAPAN TRACKS TO THE EAST. INTENSIFICATION WILL THEN BE
TEMPERED BY A DECREASE IN OHC. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH AN AVERAGE SPREAD OF MODEL TRACKS BEYOND TAU
72. THERE IS OVERALL FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK,
WHICH IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Guam is safe for now but the other islands might not be so lucky...

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EURO now aiming for Saipan and strengthens this to a Category 5 before Taiwan Landfall!

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06Z GFS also aiming for Saipan and bottoms this out 899 mb into Northern Taiwan...

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TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR HAS BEEN MAINTAINING MINIMUM TROPICAL
STORM INTENSITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TUTT ON NORTH SIDE OF
SOUDELOR APPEARS TO BE RETARDING INTENSIFICATION FOR THE TIME
BEING. SOUDELOR HAS BEEN STEERING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS OR SO AS A RESULT.
SOUDELOR IS STILL FORECAST TO HEAD WEST-NORTHWEST...WHICH WOULD
CARRY THE CENTER TO THE NORTH OF SAIPAN. SATELLITE DOES SHOW
MONSOON TAIL ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF SOUDELOR CONTINUES TO EXPAND AND
DEVELOP. THIS SUGGESTS WINDS AND WEATHER ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
SOUDELOR MAY BE MORE ROBUST THAN EARLIER THOUGHT. FOLLOW ON SHIFT
MAY NEED TO BEEF UP THE FORECAST GRIDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE
OF SOUDELOR IF THIS DEVELOPMENT TREND PERSISTS.

[euro6208]

JMA passes this north of Saipan and has it in the vicinity of Okinawa as a strong typhoon...




NAVGEM is more north and hits Okinawa bulleyes...




CMC Saipan

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EURO not as robust as in earlier runs. Still take this over Saipan and is more southerly makes landfall over Taiwan...

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GFS north of Saipan and bottoms out even lower, 893 mb, before clipping northern Taiwan...

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UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 31 JUL 2015 Time : 193000 UTC
Lat : 13:27:32 N Lon : 154:35:16 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.2 / 998.3mb/ 49.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.9 2.5 2.5

Center Temp : -26.1C Cloud Region Temp : -42.7C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.54 ARC in MD GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.68 ARC in MD GRAY
at Lat: 14:03:00 N Lon: 154:58:47 E

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 19.3 degrees

[euro6208]

Good morning Soudelor...

[euro6208]

Big shift south in track bringing it closer to Saipan as a Category 2 or Category 3. Guam also deeper in the 5 day cone of uncertainty...

WDPN31 PGTW 312100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 13W (SOUDELOR) WARNING
NR 07//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 13W (SOUDELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540 NM
EAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN
INCREASING MOISTURE FIELD WITH IMPROVED ORGANIZATION IN THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS POLEWARD MOVEMENT AND SOME
WEAKENING TO THE TUTT CELL LOCATED NORTH OF THE CYCLONE, ALLOWING
THE INCREASED ORGANIZATION. A 311632Z SSMI 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWS INCREASED DEFINITION TO THE LLCC WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON THE LLCC IDENTIFIED IN THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY AND
SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON AN ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES AND SUPPORTED BY AN ASCAT PASS
FROM 311121Z SHOWING 35 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. THE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS IMPROVING WITH THE DECREASED EFFECTS OF
THE TUTT CELL ALLOWING INCREASED RADIAL OUTFLOW AND DECREASED WIND
SHEAR. TS SOUDELOR IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 13W IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
STR. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS WHICH, IN ADDITION TO ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ABOVE 30 CELSIUS, WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION AFTER TAU 12. THIS INTENSIFICATION TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 72 AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, INTENSIFICATION WILL BE TEMPERED BY
A DECREASE IN SSTS AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AS WELL AS A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN VWS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 48, WITH A 130NM SPREAD AS THE CYCLONE PASSES THROUGH
THE MARIANAS ISLAND CHAIN. AFTER TAU 48, THE SPREAD INCREASES DUE TO
THE MODEL'S DEPICTION IN THE EXTENT OF THE STEERING RIDGE. NAVGEM,
COAMPS-TC AND GFDN TRACK THE SYSTEM ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY AS
THEY DEPICT THE STR WEAKER AND SITUATED FURTHER EAST. GFS, HWRF, AND
ECMF KEEP TS SOUDELOR ON A FLATTER TRACK WITH THE STR MORE
PRONOUNCED AND SET UP FURTHER WEST. THE JTWC TRACK IS POSITIONED
JUST SOUTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, CLOSER TO THE GFS AND
EUROPEAN MODELS BASED ON THEIR INITIALIZATION OF THE STR. DUE TO THE
INCREASING MODEL SPREAD BEYOND TAU 48, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

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WDPN31 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 13W (SOUDELOR) WARNING
NR 09//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 13W (SOUDELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 377 NM
EAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUPPORTS THE CURRENT
POSITION AND THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK CHANGE WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. SPECIFICALLY, A 010219Z AMSR2 37 GHZ COMPOSITE IMAGE AND
A 010400Z NOAA-19 89 GHZ IMAGE, WHICH DEPICT TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS, HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN DVORAK ESTIMATES
OF 35 KNOTS (T2.5), BASED ON RECENT ASCAT DATA SHOWING 35 TO 40
KNOTS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND A RECENT SATCON ESTIMATE OF
43 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE
IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE TUTT CELL NEAR 24N 160E. OVERALL,
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT WITH
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, SST 30 TO 31C AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT.
TS SOUDELOR IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 13W IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
WELL-ESTABLISHED STR. DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A 70 NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 36
AND A 170 NM SPREAD AT TAU 72. ADDITIONALLY, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT SUPPORTING A FORECAST TRACK OVER OR TO
THE NORTH OF SAIPAN, THEREFORE, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE
TRACK THROUGH TAU 72. DUE TO FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, TS
13W IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO RAPID INTENSIFICATION AFTER TAU 12 TO
24.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
PLACE LEADING TO CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. INTENSIFICATION WILL BE TEMPERED BY A DECREASE IN SSTS AND
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AS WELL AS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN VWS. ALTHOUGH
MODEL TRACK SOLUTIONS FAN OUT, NONE OF THE GUIDANCE HAS ANY
INDICATION OF A RECURVATURE SCENARIO. THE JTWC TRACK IS POSITIONED
VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND JUST SOUTH OF THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS IN FAVOR OF THE GFS, HWRF, AND EUROPEAN MODELS BASED
ON THEIR INITIALIZATION OF THE STR. DUE TO THE INCREASING MODEL
SPREAD BEYOND TAU 72, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 010904
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (13W) ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP132015
800 PM CHST SAT AUG 1 2015

...TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN IN
THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE LIKELY WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 35 MPH OR MORE...ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN
IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 151.6E

ABOUT 505 MILES SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT 470 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN ISLAND
ABOUT 450 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT 395 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 405 MILES EAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 430 MILES EAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 460 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 151.6
DEGREES EAST. MOVEMENT IS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. SOUDELOR
IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS ON A TRACK THAT WOULD TAKE IT THROUGH THE NORTHERN
MARIANA ISLANDS BETWEEN SAIPAN AND ANATAHAN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 45 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
SOUDELOR IS STILL EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND MAY
BECOME A TYPHOON ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 PM TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY
AT 200 AM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

$$

KLEESCHULTE

[euro6208]

Both EURO and GFS strikes Saipan. EURO bottoms Soudelor out to 917 mb before skirting northern Taiwan while GFS makes Soudelor a Category 5 for four days before hitting Taiwan...

[euro6208]

Fantastic looking system...Great outflow!

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ81 PGUM 011113
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (13W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
913 PM CHST SAT AUG 1 2015

...TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR STRENGTHENING SLIGHTLY...

.NEW INFORMATION...
NONE.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE ON ROTA...TINIAN..SAIPAN...ALAMAGAN...PAGAN AND
AGRIHAN IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TINIAN AND SAIPAN AND
THEIR COASTAL WATERS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA AND ITS COASTAL
WATERS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALAMAGAN...PAGAN AND
AGRIHAN.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 8 PM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.2N...LONGITUDE 151.6E. THIS IS ABOUT 505 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN...470 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN ISLAND...450
MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN...395 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN...405
MILES EAST OF TINIAN...AND 430 MILES EAST OF ROTA. SOUDELOR IS
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE 45 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST
TRACK THAT WOULD TAKE IT THROUGH THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS
30 TO 40 MILES NORTH OF SAIPAN AS A TYPHOON SUNDAY EVENING.
TYPHOON FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
EVENING ON TINIAN AND SAIPAN.

...AGRIHAN...PAGAN...AND ALAMAGAN...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER STURDY ENOUGH TO WITHSTAND TYPHOON
FORCE WINDS...WHICH ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
MAKE SURE YOU WILL HAVE ENOUGH FOOD AND WATER FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE ARE STILL
POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING IF SOUDELOR DEVIATES NORTH OF ITS CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF...
SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...REACHING 20 FEET
OR MORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
HAZARDOUS THROUGH MONDAY. DANGEROUS SURF OF 20 FEET OR HIGHER IS
POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4 FEET AS
SOUDELOR PASSES.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

&&

GUZ003-004-PMZ153-154-011915-
/O.CON.PGUM.TY.W.0004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
TINIAN-SAIPAN-TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
913 PM CHST SAT AUG 1 2015

...TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE PREPARED TO PUT YOUR TYPHOON DISASTER PREPAREDNESS PLAN INTO
ACTION. SEEK SHELTER STURDY ENOUGH TO WITHSTAND TYPHOON FORCE
WINDS...WHICH ARE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT. SECURE LIGHT OUTSIDE
STRUCTURES SUCH AS CANOPIES AND BRING OUTDOOR FURNITURE INSIDE.
MAKE SURE YOU WILL HAVE ENOUGH FOOD AND WATER FOR SEVERAL
DAYS...AS WELL AS FUEL FOR VEHICLES AND GENERATORS. FOLLOW
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

&&

...WIND INFORMATION...
SOUDELOR WILL BRING DAMAGING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND TYPHOON FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY EVENING AS
SOUDELOR PASSES ABOUT 35 MILES NORTH OF SAIPAN. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS SHOULD END BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF...
SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...REACHING 16 FEET
OR MORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS COULD REACH BETWEEN 25
AND 35 FEET SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS SOUDELOR
PASSES CLOSE TO SAIPAN. SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN HAZARDOUS THROUGH
MONDAY. DANGEROUS SURF OF 25 TO 35 FEET IS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH
COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4 FEET AS SOUDELOR PASSES. HIGH TIDE
WILL OCCUR AROUND 10 PM SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD INCREASE THE
INUDATION RISK.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL OF 5 TO 7 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.

$$

GUZ002-PMZ152-011915-
/O.CON.PGUM.TR.A.0002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
ROTA-ROTA COASTAL WATERS-
913 PM CHST SAT AUG 1 2015

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE PREPARED TO PUT YOUR TYPHOON DISASTER PREPAREDNESS PLAN INTO
ACTION. SEEK SHELTER STURDY ENOUGH TO WITHSTAND DAMAGING TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS. MAKE SURE YOU WILL HAVE ENOUGH FOOD AND WATER
FOR SEVERAL DAYS...AS WELL AS FUEL FOR VEHICLES AND GENERATORS.
FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS

&&

...WIND INFORMATION...
SOUDELOR MAY BRING DAMAGING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH
OR MORE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS SOUDELOR PASSES
NORTH OF SAIPAN. WINDS WILL DECREASE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF...
SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD LATE TONIGHT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...REACHING
10 TO 12 FEET OR MORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS COULD
REACH BETWEEN 14 TO 20 FEET SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AS SOUDELOR PASSES CLOSE TO SAIPAN. SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
HAZARDOUS THROUGH MONDAY. DANGEROUS SURF OF 15 TO 20 FEET IS
POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4 FEET AS
SOUDELOR PASSES. HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR AROUND 10 PM SUNDAY NIGHT
WHICH COULD INCREASE THE INUDATION RISK.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL OF 5 TO 7 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 3 AM SUNDAY...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$