WPAC: SOUDELOR - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

Wow, that radar image that shows the tiny eye/eyewall is impressive! It seems like you rarely see a nice, tight core from radar. Was it weakening when that scan was taken?

It was strengthening at that time. It was classified as a Category 2 90 knot typhoon but real data indicates it was nearly a Category 5...

[tatertawt24]

So basically, it pulled a Charley.

Unfortunately, if it was strengthening, that means the strongest winds were probably able to mix down to the surface. I wonder if there was any lightning.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Still in Cat 5

13W SOUDELOR 150804 1200 18.8N 137.3E WPAC 140 918

[xtyphooncyclonex]

WTPN31 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 13W (SOUDELOR) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 18.8N 137.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8N 137.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 19.5N 135.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 20.1N 133.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 20.9N 131.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 21.7N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 23.5N 124.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 25.4N 119.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 28.4N 116.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 19.0N 136.8E.
SUPER TYPHOON 13W (SOUDELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 700 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 48 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 042100Z, 050300Z, 050900Z AND 051500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (FOURTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

[euro6208]

Down to 130 knots...

13W SOUDELOR 150804 1800 19.3N 136.1E WPAC 130 926

[euro6208]

Nasty hit with EURO and GFS seeing renewed strengthening before landfall...SST's near Taiwan are hot...

EURO




GFS




OHC increases big time near Taiwan so not surprised for a Cat 5 landfall...

[cycloneye]

http://i.imgur.com/BWPCVH3.gif

[xtyphooncyclonex]

TY 1513 (SOUDELOR)
Issued at 03:45 UTC, 5 August 2015

<Analyses at 05/03 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N19°40'(19.7°)
E134°30'(134.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 930hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL150km(80NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N440km(240NM)
S330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 05/15 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N20°05'(20.1°)
E131°55'(131.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 935hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL240km(130NM)

<Forecast for 06/03 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N20°35'(20.6°)
E129°25'(129.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 935hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 07/00 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N21°50'(21.8°)
E125°10'(125.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 920hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(100kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(140kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL410km(220NM)

<Forecast for 08/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N23°35'(23.6°)
E120°00'(120.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL520km(280NM)

[xtyphooncyclonex]

13W SOUDELOR 150805 0600 19.9N 133.8E WPAC 105 944

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Reintensifying?



Convection getting thicker and colder again

[RL3AO]

The outflow on the TY has really gotten impressive over the last few hours. I think it might try to take off again when it moves over the higher OHC.

[euro6208]

Beautiful but deadly...

It looks like the Milky way galaxy...

[euro6208]

Let's hope for the best for Taiwan...

Wind is not a problem for Taiwan but the rain is...

Storms that hit Taiwan collides with the mountains and often produce the worst rainfall and worst flooding worldwide...

[euro6208]

00Z GFS had a monster 885 mb typhoon making landfall but now 06Z is a bit weaker, a monster 900's mb Soudelor raking the country...

EURO agrees on a central taiwan hit and bottoms it out at 918 mb as it rapidly intensifies...

[1900hurricane]

Soudelor is still battling the dry air from the Asian mainland that has been intruding since peak intensity.

[cycloneye]

Cat 4 before landfall in Taiwan.

[Dean4Storms]

Nasty looking situation for Taiwan!

[Alyono]

40 inches of rain would not surprise me in the mountains

[Chris_in_Tampa]

For anyone who is interested, there is an ASTRA from Taiwan jet dropping sondes currently. They sample around the storm, not in it, and there are only sondes available, nothing else on my site:
http://tropicalwestpacific.com/recon/recon.cgi?basin=wp