WPAC: SOUDELOR - Post-Tropical

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xtyphooncyclonex
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#301 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Thu Aug 06, 2015 7:44 am

TBH, it's convection is too thin for a cat 4. Maybe low level cat 3 for now.
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Re: WPAC: SOUDELOR - Typhoon

#302 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Thu Aug 06, 2015 8:21 am

Second recon mission, with August 6th 6Z position and 9Z track from JTWC.

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Re: WPAC: SOUDELOR - Typhoon

#303 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Thu Aug 06, 2015 8:42 am

euro6208 wrote:When will recon return to this great basin?


They're actually doing a reconnaissance mission on Soudelor right now
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#304 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Thu Aug 06, 2015 8:43 am

I doubt it

13W SOUDELOR 150806 1200 21.1N 128.1E WPAC 90 956
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#305 Postby Angferba » Thu Aug 06, 2015 8:48 am

Super 3D images based on WRF model.

https://twitter.com/recretos

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Re: WPAC: SOUDELOR - Typhoon

#306 Postby wxman57 » Thu Aug 06, 2015 9:13 am

Josh Morgerman arrived in Taipei yesterday and is positioning himself on the mid Taiwan coast to intercept Soudelor.
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Re: WPAC: SOUDELOR - Typhoon

#307 Postby RL3AO » Thu Aug 06, 2015 9:21 am

euro6208 wrote:[i mg]http://i.imgur.com/0w08LIx.gif[/img]
[ img]http://i.imgur.com/vLFKe5h.gif[/img]

This is more like 6.0 meaning Cat 4 status but dvorak still showing a 4.5 rating... :roll:


Because the convection isn't wide enough. It narrowest band of white needs to be 0.5° wide. Because of these requirements, it doesn't fall into white, black, or light grey. Its not until medium grey that it meets the width requirements which means 4.5. Now in reality, its probably closer to a 5.0 or 5.5,
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Re: WPAC: SOUDELOR - Typhoon

#308 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 06, 2015 9:51 am

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Re: WPAC: SOUDELOR - Typhoon

#309 Postby galaxy401 » Thu Aug 06, 2015 10:54 am

euro6208 wrote:
dexterlabio wrote:Posters from the other part of the world are asleep and missing this one.


It's not anywhere near them so little post from them but a storm of this magnitude in their part of the world will go crazy especially if the U.S coastline gets threaten...


Becuase most of the posters live near the US coastline where those storms could threaten their homes. Sort of obvious. :roll:

I don't understand why the JTWC weakened it to 90 knots. Clearly it's weakening... :roll:
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Re: WPAC: SOUDELOR - Typhoon

#310 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Thu Aug 06, 2015 10:57 am

galaxy401 wrote:Becuase most of the posters live near the US coastline where those storms could threaten their homes. Sort of obvious. :roll:

I don't understand why the JTWC weakened it to 90 knots. Clearly it's weakening... :roll:

You mean strengthening? :wink: :lol:
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Re: WPAC: SOUDELOR - Typhoon

#311 Postby Krit-tonkla » Thu Aug 06, 2015 11:12 am

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:
galaxy401 wrote:Becuase most of the posters live near the US coastline where those storms could threaten their homes. Sort of obvious. :roll:

I don't understand why the JTWC weakened it to 90 knots. Clearly it's weakening... :roll:

You mean strengthening? :wink: :lol:


That's sarcasm.

TY 1513 (SOUDELOR)
Issued at 15:40 UTC, 6 August 2015

<Analyses at 06/15 UTC>
Scale Large
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N21°20'(21.3°)
E127°30'(127.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL150km(80NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL560km(300NM)

<Forecast for 07/03 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N22°05'(22.1°)
E125°05'(125.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 935hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL240km(130NM)

<Forecast for 07/15 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N23°20'(23.3°)
E122°30'(122.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 930hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 08/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N25°00'(25.0°)
E118°50'(118.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL390km(210NM)

<Forecast for 09/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N27°50'(27.8°)
E116°00'(116.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
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#312 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Aug 06, 2015 12:04 pm

Too lopsided for anything hghier than a 4.5 unless you wanna add for BF.
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#313 Postby Krit-tonkla » Thu Aug 06, 2015 12:22 pm

TXPQ21 KNES 061534
TCSWNP

A. 13W (SOUDELOR)

B. 06/1501Z

C. 21.3N

D. 127.3E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T5.0/5.0/D0.5/12HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM CENTER IS WMG AND SURROUNDED BY B RING WHILE
EMBEDDED IN LG. THIS YIELDS A DT OF 6.0 AFTER ADDING 1.0 FOR EYE
ADJUSTMENT. CONDUCTED 6-HR AVERAGING SINCE A CLASSIFICATION OF 6.0 EXCEEDS
ALLOWED MAXIMUM CHANGE OF 1.0 OVER A 6 HR PERIOD. AVERAGING YIELDS A DT
OF 5.0. MET IS 6.0 AND PT IS 5.5. FT IS BASED ON 6-HR AVERAGED DT OF 5.0.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...VELASCO
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#314 Postby dexterlabio » Thu Aug 06, 2015 2:03 pm

This is quite similar to Typhoon Soulik which slammed Taiwan in 2013. It had this clear, round eye but the cloud tops were quite warm.. If convection becomes deeper this one could have been a Cat5 again. Good thing is that dry air will prevent that from happening.
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Re: WPAC: SOUDELOR - Typhoon

#315 Postby euro6208 » Thu Aug 06, 2015 2:26 pm

13W SOUDELOR 150806 1800 21.5N 126.8E WPAC 95 952
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#316 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Aug 06, 2015 2:30 pm

Convection starting to wrap around and the eye is quite warm.
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#317 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Aug 06, 2015 2:52 pm

Eyewall is open on microwave.
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Re:

#318 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Aug 06, 2015 3:47 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Eyewall is open on microwave.


Likely due to some dry air. Probs around 105 knts now, higher than the JTWC's estimate of 95 knts.
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#319 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Aug 06, 2015 7:06 pm

This is anywhere from T5.0 to T6.0, depending on how you measure the width. Likely at the high end though.
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#320 Postby Alyono » Thu Aug 06, 2015 8:10 pm

another eyewall replacement underway as per windsat
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