WPAC: SOUDELOR - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: SOUDELOR - Post-Tropical

#361 Postby euro6208 » Mon Aug 10, 2015 8:28 am

Incredible Soudelor...

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Re: WPAC: SOUDELOR - Post-Tropical

#362 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Aug 11, 2015 5:04 pm

THIS IS NOT OFFICIAL, but here would be how I would set the best track.

30/0000 12.8N 160.9E 25 kt / 1008 mb Tropical depression
30/0600 13.5N 159.9E 30 kt / 1006 mb
30/1200 13.7N 159.1E 35 kt / 1004 mb Tropical storm
30/1800 13.7N 158.5E 35 kt / 1004 mb

31/0000 13.6N 157.6E 40 kt / 1003 mb
31/0600 13.6N 156.6E 40 kt / 1002 mb
31/1200 13.6N 155.6E 35 kt / 1004 mb
31/1800 13.6N 154.3E 35 kt / 1004 mb

01/0000 13.8N 153.1E 40 kt / 1003 mb
01/0600 14.0N 152.1E 40 kt / 1002 mb
01/1200 14.1N 150.8E 45 kt / 1000 mb
01/1800 14.3N 149.7E 55 kt / 996 mb

02/0000 14.6N 148.3E 70 kt / 986 mb Typhoon
02/0600 14.8N 146.8E 85 kt / 977 mb
02/1200 15.1N 145.9E 110 kt / 956 mb
02/1400 15.2N 145.7E 125 kt / 939 mb Landfall at Saipan
02/1800 15.6N 145.0E 130 kt / 934 mb Super typhoon

03/0000 16.2N 144.1E 125 kt / 936 mb Typhoon
03/0600 16.9N 142.9E 125 kt / 932 mb
03/1200 17.5N 141.8E 140 kt / 920 mb Super typhoon
03/1800 17.8N 140.7E 155 kt / 904 mb
03/2100 18.0N 140.1E 160 kt / 900 mb Max wind and min pressure

04/0000 18.2N 139.6E 150 kt / 905 mb
04/0600 18.6N 138.3E 135 kt / 915 mb
04/1200 18.8N 137.3E 125 kt / 924 mb Typhoon
04/1800 19.3N 136.1E 115 kt / 934 mb

05/0000 19.5N 136.1E 105 kt / 944 mb
05/0600 19.8N 133.7E 95 kt / 954 mb
05/1200 20.0N 132.6E 90 kt / 958 mb
05/1800 20.1N 131.5E 85 kt / 961 mb

06/0000 20.4N 130.3E 85 kt / 962 mb
06/0600 20.9N 129.2E 85 kt / 961 mb
06/1200 21.1N 128.1E 85 kt / 960 mb
06/1800 21.5N 126.8E 90 kt / 954 mb

07/0000 21.9N 125.8E 100 kt / 945 mb
07/0600 22.4N 124.8E 105 kt / 940 mb
07/1200 22.9N 123.8E 100 kt / 942 mb
07/1800 23.6N 122.6E 95 kt / 945 mb
07/2030 24.1N 121.7E 95 kt / 946 mb Landfall at Xiulin, Taiwan

08/0000 24.3N 121.3E 80 kt / 957 mb
08/0600 24.4N 120.0E 70 kt / 962 mb
08/1200 24.6N 119.3E 65 kt / 970 mb
08/1400 25.0N 119.1E 65 kt / 972 mb Landfall at Beidaicum, Fujian
08/1630 25.3N 118.9E 60 kt / 976 mb Landfall at Donggang, Fujian

08/1800 25.5N 118.8E 50 kt / 982 mb Tropical storm

09/0000 25.9N 117.6E 35 kt / 994 mb
09/0600 26.6N 116.9E 35 kt / 996 mb
09/1200 28.0N 117.0E 30 kt / 996 mb Tropical depression
09/1800 Absorbed by frontal zone

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Re: WPAC: SOUDELOR - Post-Tropical

#363 Postby euro6208 » Wed Aug 12, 2015 8:22 pm

The postseason analysis on Soudelor will be so interesting...

Peak of 155 knots is the strongest globally since last year's October, November and December's Vongfong, Nuri, and Hagupit also in the WPAC.

Landfall in Saipan was only analyse at 90 knots Cat 2 but real time data measured a 930's mb reading at American Memorial Park which would make it a Cat 4 or 5 depending on where the record 3.5 to 4 nm eye and eyewall made landfall, one of the smallest worldwide to make landfall...

Strongest Saipan typhoon in recorded history and strongest since Typhoon Kim 30 years ago in 1986...

Peak ADT of 7.6 158 knots and RAW of 7.7...
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Re: WPAC: SOUDELOR - Post-Tropical

#364 Postby euro6208 » Wed Aug 12, 2015 8:40 pm

37 confirmed dead

A record-breaking 4.85 million households lost power on the island. At least 8 people died and 420 others sustained injury there. Portions of eastern China saw their heaviest rains in 100 years, resulting in deadly floods and landslides. At least 26 people were killed in the nation and total economic losses exceeded 13.7 billion yuan

Yonaguni island reached 163 km/h (101 mph) with concurrent gusts to 233 km/h (145 mph), the strongest winds recorded in relation to the storm throughout its path

Pengjiayu off the Northern Taiwan coast recorded sustained winds of 150 km/h (93 mph) and a peak gust of 211 km/h (131 mph).

Taoyuan International Airport, near Taipei, reported a gust of 150 km/h (93 mph).

Taiping Mountain in eastern Taiwan's Yilan County saw the heaviest rains from the typhoon, with accumulations peaking at 1,334 mm (52.52 in)

Rainfall in the Wulai District reached 722 mm (28.4 in) in 24 hours, the second-highest on record behind Typhoon Matsa in 2004. Twelve-hour accumulations amounted to a record 632 mm (24.9 in).

At the height of the storm, 4.85 million households lost electricity.[47] This was the largest blackout on record in Taiwan due to a typhoon, surpassing the previous record of 2.79 million after Typhoon Herb in 1996.

Image

Heaviest rains in China in a century

The strongest gust was 191 km/h (119 mph) in Putian while nearby Fuzhou saw gusts up to 134 km/h (83 mph).Gusts in excess of typhoon force were almost entirely confined to Fujian. Gale-force winds extended into Jiangxi and Zhejiang provinces.

Much of East China saw torrential rains from the storm, with accumulations of at least 100 mm (3.9 in) reported in several provinces. Portions of Zhejiang Province saw 24 hour rainfall totals with a return period of 100–120 years. Wencheng County recorded 645 mm (25.4 in) during the same span – the heaviest in 100 years. Country-wide accumulations peaked at 806 mm (31.7 in) within Wenzhou. Soudelor's merger with a cold front over Anhui and Jiangsu provinces brought torrential rains to the region from August 9–10. The heaviest rains fell in central Jiangsu Province, peaking at 467 mm (18.4 in) along the central coastline.
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Re: WPAC: SOUDELOR - Post-Tropical

#365 Postby euro6208 » Thu Aug 27, 2015 7:33 am

Pro-mets on Guam saying Soudelor was at least a category 3 when it hit Saipan with it's pinhole eye with other indications showing it was stronger...
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Re: WPAC: SOUDELOR - Post-Tropical

#366 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 08, 2015 7:08 pm

How fast were Typhoon Soudelor's winds on Saipan?

Meteorologist Dr. Mike Lander and NWS director Chip Guard recently visited Saipan and determined pinhole eye Soudelor made landfall as a strong category 3 typhoon maybe even a category 4.

Huge when at the time it was rated as only 90 knots...


http://www.kuam.com/story/29948876/2015/09/03/how-fast-were-typhoon-soudelors-winds-on-saipan

A more comprehensive technical report will be available in a few months...
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Re: WPAC: SOUDELOR - Post-Tropical

#367 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 16, 2015 12:11 am

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Re: WPAC: SOUDELOR - Post-Tropical

#368 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Jul 19, 2016 12:00 am

Upon closer examination of the finalized JTWC best track data released about a month ago, the 12Z August 2nd intensity entry (the one within an hour of Saipan landfall) remained at 90 kt, exactly the same value as the operational estimate. Furthermore, the next entry at 18Z actually dropped the 105 kt operational estimate down to 100 kt (I guess they were trying to smooth out the curve?).

I don't agree.
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Re: WPAC: SOUDELOR - Post-Tropical

#369 Postby euro6208 » Tue Jul 19, 2016 9:09 pm

1900hurricane wrote:Upon closer examination of the finalized JTWC best track data released about a month ago, the 12Z August 2nd intensity entry (the one within an hour of Saipan landfall) remained at 90 kt, exactly the same value as the operational estimate. Furthermore, the next entry at 18Z actually dropped the 105 kt operational estimate down to 100 kt (I guess they were trying to smooth out the curve?).

I don't agree.



Weird it's like JTWC is ignoring real time data all the time...A pressure of 930's measured on Saipan and damage typical of a Cat 4 was observed and confirmed by the NWS.

It's small alright but violent...

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Re: WPAC: SOUDELOR - Post-Tropical

#370 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Feb 25, 2018 12:02 pm

I did some KZC analysis using the 939 mb measured at the American Memorial Park in Saipan when Soudelor made landfall there on August 2nd shortly after 12Z. Aside from the pressure, some of the input constants I used includes a latitude of 15.1ºN, forward speed of 9-10 kt, and OCI of 1005 mb (all from or derived from JTWC best track). I derived a TS wind radius from the JMA 30 kt wind data in the same method as my Typhoon Reanalysis Project and ended up with an average TS wind radius of about 113 nm. These KZC inputs gave me an expected wind velocity of about 120 kt. Additionally, I also ran KZC using the ROCI of 190-200 nm (also from JTWC best track), and also ended up with an expected wind velocity of 120 kt. Coupled with the study finding damage indicative of winds around 115 kt, I'd estimate Soudelor's Saipan landfall intensity of 115-120 kt, considerably higher than the 90 kt JTWC has in best track.

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Re: WPAC: SOUDELOR - Post-Tropical

#371 Postby euro6208 » Sat Mar 03, 2018 4:57 am

Fail.
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