WPAC: Tropical Depression 14W

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95W INVEST 150801 1200 29.0N 145.8E WPAC 20 1007

Looks like another unnamed TS...

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WTPN21 PGTW 011930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 29.0N 145.7E TO 30.7N 141.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 011800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 29.2N 145.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 28.6N
145.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 145.2E, APPROXIMATELY 470 NM
SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DUE TO 10 KNOT WESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE 011200Z BYU HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT IMAGE
SHOWS A MIDGET SIZED, DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 20 KNOT WINDS
BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
SYSTEM AND OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL POSITIONED TO THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE VALUES ARE ALSO FAVORABLE AT 28
TO 30 CELSIUS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS STRUGGLING TO INITIALIZE
THIS DISTURBANCE DUE TO ITS SMALL NATURE AND WEAK VERTICAL EXTENT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
021930Z.//
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[euro6208]

TXPQ22 KNES 011919
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (95W)

B. 01/1432Z

C. 29.1N

D. 145.5E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...SMALL SYSTEM WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW CONSISTS OF
TIGHTLY CURVED BAND MEASURING 3/10, WHICH RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.5. PT
AGREES WHILE MET IS 1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK

[jaguarjace]

WTPN32 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 29.9N 144.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 29.9N 144.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 30.2N 143.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 30.3N 142.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 30.3N 141.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 30.0N 144.1E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 399 NM
SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 020600Z IS 6 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z, 030300Z
AND 030900Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 13W (SOUDELOR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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WDPN32 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (FOURTEEN)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 14W (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
399 NM SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES
WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE CENTER. MSI NOW SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION
FLARING OVER THE CENTER AND EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LLCC. A
020751Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE REVEALS A LINEAR BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE CURVED BANDING, HOWEVER, THE
020751Z SSMIS WIND PRODUCT INDICATES A SMALL CORE OF 25 TO 30 KNOT
WINDS. THEREFORE, THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS
BASED ON THE LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE AND SSMIS WIND PRODUCT. THERE IS
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE WELL-DEFINED
CENTER AND LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE, WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OFFSET BY GOOD OUTFLOW INTO A TUTT CELL TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. TD
14W IS EMBEDDED ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL STR,
WHICH EXTENDS OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES OF THE
SYSTEM. THIS IS LEADING TO A SLOW WESTWARD TRACK.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 14W IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL STR.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEGRADE AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS INTO AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, THEREFORE, TD 14W SHOULD WEAKEN
AND DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE.//
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TPPN11 PGTW 020941

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (FOURTEEN)

B. 02/0832Z

C. 30.04N

D. 144.20E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .20 ON LOG10
SPIRAL, YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT ARE UNAVAILABLE. DBO
DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


CHAPPOTIN

TXPQ22 KNES 020917
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (95W)

B. 02/0832Z

C. 29.9N

D. 144.0E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...DT=2.0 BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN WITH CIRCULARLY DEFINED
CLOUD LINES, PROXIMITY NEAR OVERCAST, SMALL SIZE. PT=2.0. MET=1.5. FT
IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SCHWARTZ

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WDPN32 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (FOURTEEN)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 14W (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
358 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A MOSTLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PULSING CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE
EAST DUE TO PERSISTENT 20 KNOT WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). A
021737Z SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A COMPACT, MIDGET SIZED
LLCC WITH VERY LIMITED CONVECTION TO THE EAST. THE MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS THAT DRY AIR IS ALMOST COMPLETELY SURROUNDING THE LLCC. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC IN THE ABOVE
IMAGERY WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30
KNOTS BASED ON NO CHANGE IN OVERALL STRUCTURE AND A WELL DEFINED
LLCC IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR AND MODERATE VWS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS REDUCED OUTFLOW TO THE WEST AS THE TUTT
CELL IS WEAKENING; HOWEVER, AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER JAPAN IS CREATING A POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL. TD 14W IS EMBEDDED ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-
LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR), WHICH EXTENDS OVER THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PERIPHERIES OF THE SYSTEM. THIS IS LEADING TO A SLOW
WESTWARD TRACK.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 14W IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL STR.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEGRADE AS THE APPROACHING
TROUGH ENGULFS THE SYSTEM, INCREASING THE VWS AND DRY AIR. TD 14W IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A
GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK AND SUPPORTS THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE.//
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[euro6208]

Poor 14W

WDPN32 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (FOURTEEN)
WARNING NR 07//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 14W (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 264
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SHOWS A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS
ALMOST VOID OF CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR
LOOP WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED
ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH DRY AIR INTRUSION AND MODERATE WESTERLY VWS.
THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 14W IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STEERING STR.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DETERIORATE AS AN APPROACHING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ENGULFS THE SYSTEM, INCREASING THE VWS AND
PROMOTING SUBSIDENCE. THIS WILL CAUSE TD 14W TO WEAKEN AND FULLY
DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD OR POSSIBLY
SOONER. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A GENERAL WESTWARD
TRACK AND SUPPORTS THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.//
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