EPAC: HILDA- Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

Looking at full res 0z ECMWF yea the initialization seems 100% off. Thinks this is a 1003 mbar TC. It's not just Hilda as the 0z ECMWF has a goody initialization of other systems as well.

Worth noting that despite this 0z ECMWF has along with several other recent ECMWF forecast 10+ inches of rain over the Big Island from this system.

Yeah just saw it (registered on there just now).

GFDL is the only model with a good handle on it right now (last time I checked).

[Yellow Evan]

Looking at full res 0z ECMWF yea the initialization seems 100% off. Thinks this is a 1003 mbar TC. It's not just Hilda as the 0z ECMWF has a goody initialization of other systems as well.

Worth noting that despite this 0z ECMWF has along with several other recent ECMWF forecast 10+ inches of rain over the Big Island from this system.

Yeah just saw it (registered on there just now).

GFDL is the only model with a good handle on it right now (last time I checked).

GFDL has a good handle, but brings this too far north. HWRF has a decent handle, but weakens this quite a bit more than the rest of the guidance.

[Yellow Evan]

CPHC keeping this at 80 then

Code: Select all

                    * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  HILDA       EP102015  08/11/15  06 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    80    76    71    66    59    48    35    27    16   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS
V (KT) LAND       80    76    71    66    59    48    35    27    16   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS
V (KT) LGE mod    80    77    72    66    60    48    38    31    25    22    19    17   DIS
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        24    27    30    31    35    29    30    32    33    34    39    37    42
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     6     4     0     2    -1     6     4    -1     2     0     2     0     0
SHEAR DIR        262   263   260   251   252   251   248   251   257   257   259   262   256
SST (C)         27.8  27.7  27.7  27.6  27.6  27.5  27.5  27.5  27.5  27.7  27.9  27.9  27.9
POT. INT. (KT)   140   139   138   137   137   136   136   137   137   140   143   142   142
200 MB T (C)   -51.2 -51.6 -51.9 -51.7 -51.9 -52.3 -52.6 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -53.6 -53.7
TH_E DEV (C)       6     7     7     7     7     6     7     6     7     7     8     8     9
700-500 MB RH     66    65    64    66    67    67    68    68    68    64    59    56    51
MODEL VTX (KT)    16    13    13    13    13    12    11    11     8     8     5     5     4
850 MB ENV VOR    11     0    -7    -2     0     5     0    -7     9    17    21    37    43
200 MB DIV        78    78    70    87    63    63    50    32    12    14     8    25   -13
700-850 TADV      11    11     7     7     3     2     2     4     1     0    -5     0    -3
LAND (KM)        520   469   418   376   335   248   168    88    19    83   217   228   227
LAT (DEG N)     16.9  17.2  17.4  17.7  17.9  18.3  18.5  18.8  19.1  19.3  19.4  19.9  20.6
LONG(DEG W)    150.7 151.1 151.5 151.8 152.1 152.8 153.6 154.4 155.3 156.7 158.7 160.2 161.4
STM SPEED (KT)     4     5     4     4     4     4     4     5     5     8     9     7     6
HEAT CONTENT      28    29    29    29    29    29    27    22     5    32    24    30    34

[srainhoutx]

Due to the slow movement of Hilda and the tenacity of its strength despite increasing shear, the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron will begin 6 hourly fixes in support of the Central Pacific Hurricane Center due to the threat of Hilda impacting the Hawaiian Island Chain.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102015
1100 PM HST MON AUG 10 2015

DATA COLLECTED BY U.S. 53RD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WERE
CRITICAL IN DETERMINING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AND WIND STRUCTURE OF
HILDA THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH HILDA IS ENCOUNTERING A PROVERBIAL
WALL OF SHEAR...WITH ANALYSES FROM UW-CIMSS INDICATING AROUND 35 KT
OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...HILDA HAS THUS FAR BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN
AN INNER CORE. MAXIMUM SFMR WINDS ON THE INITIAL PENETRATION WERE
NEAR 80 KT...AND A REDUCTION OF MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS YIELDS
SURFACE WINDS 0F 77 KT...THUS THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE
MAINTAINED AT 80 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. A 25 TO 30 NM WIDE EYE WAS
NOTED BY THE FLIGHT CREW TO BE OPEN TO THE SOUTHWEST...WHICH WAS
NICELY HIGHLIGHTED BY 0405Z SSMI/S AND 0411Z GPM MICROWAVE
OVERPASSES. IN COORDINATION WITH CHIEF...AERIAL RECONNAISSANCE
COORDINATION...ALL HURRICANES /CARCAH/...FLIGHTS INTO HILDA WILL
BEGIN AT 6 HOURLY INTERVALS STARTING TUESDAY EVENING...WITH THE
NEXT MISSION SLATED FOR TUESDAY MORNING.

THE AIRCRAFT CENTER FIXES INDICATED THAT HILDA WAS MOVING VERY
SLOWLY...HAVING MOVED ABOUT 7 NM TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IN 2
HOURS. A SLIGHTLY LONGER TERM INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE FOR THIS
ADVISORY IS DETERMINED TO BE 315/04 KT. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW OVER HILDA FEATURES RELATIVELY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS...THE
CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY IN AN AREA OF LIGHT STEERING WINDS.

OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS...HILDA IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST...STEERED BY THE WEAK CURRENTS BETWEEN A LOW ALOFT
NORTH OF HAWAII...AND A HIGH TO THE DISTANT EAST. THIS WILL LEAD
TO GRADUAL WEAKENING...DUE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES SHEARING
AT LEAST THE UPPER PORTIONS OF THE CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND A SLIGHT ACCELERATION ARE EXPECTED
THEREAFTER AS HILDA BECOMES INCREASINGLY SHALLOW AND THE VERTICAL
STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE BECOMES INCREASINGLY COMPROMISED. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS FOR THIS PACKAGE CLOSELY
FOLLOW THE PREVIOUS...WITH THE TRACK PARALLELING THE TVCN
CONSENSUS...AND CLOSE TO THE LATEST HWRF GUIDANCE. AFTER ACCOUNTING
FOR THE INITIAL INTENSITY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS
THE PREVIOUS...AND IS CLOSE TO SHIPS GUIDANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS. THE
RATE OF WEAKENING THEREAFTER IS CLOSE TO THE IVCN CONSENSUS...AND
SLOWER THAN SHIPS GUIDANCE...BUT ANTICIPATES THAT HILDA WILL BECOME
A REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ON THE FORECAST TRACK...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
THE BIG ISLAND...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS TUESDAY MORNING. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS AS TO THE EVENTUAL IMPACTS THAT MAY BE FELT IN THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS FROM HILDA...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE SURF AND VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 17.1N 150.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 17.5N 151.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 18.0N 152.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 18.5N 152.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 13/0600Z 18.9N 153.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 14/0600Z 19.3N 156.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 15/0600Z 19.5N 158.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 16/0600Z 20.0N 161.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD

[tolakram]

Live IR

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-W%20PACUS&lat=16&lon=-150&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&type=Animation&quality=95&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=20

I think this is the beginning of the end.



Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102015
500 AM HST TUE AUG 11 2015

HILDA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN IN THE FACE OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR...ANALYZED AS BEING NEAR 35 KT BY UW-CIMSS. LATEST SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK SATELLITE DATA-T VALUES FROM HFO/SAB/PGTW RANGE FROM 4.0/65
KT TO 4.5/77 KT...WHILE LATEST ADT VALUES ARE 4.4. BASED ON A
BLEND OF THESE ESTIMATES...AND A STEADILY DEGRADING SATELLITE
APPEARANCE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY HAS BEEN
LOWERED TO 75 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION VECTOR FOR THIS ADVISORY IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN
315/06 KT...AS IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE THE
CENTER IS USING INFRARED IMAGERY...AND THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY
USABLE MICROWAVE PASSES OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS OR SO. ALTHOUGH THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER HILDA FEATURES RELATIVELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS...THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY IN AN AREA OF LIGHT STEERING WINDS
BETWEEN A LOW ALOFT NORTH OF HAWAII...AND A HIGH TO THE DISTANT
EAST. THIS WILL INDUCE HILDA TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER...HILDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE A LITTLE
MORE QUICKLY TOWARD THE WEST...AS THE SHALLOW SYSTEM IS STEERED BY
THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE FLOW. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY
AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS...AND NOW LIES ON THE RIGHT HAND SIDE OF A
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THAT HAS BEEN ANYTHING BUT CONSISTENT BETWEEN
MODEL RUNS.

HILDA IS LIVING ON BORROWED TIME...AND WILL SOON GIVE IN TO THE
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT IN WHICH IT IS EMBEDDED. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS
ALOFT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET...LIE ALONG THE
FORECAST PATH. THUS HILDA IS FORECAST TO STEADILY WEAKEN THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH DISSIPATION FORECAST BY DAY 5. IN THE
MEANTIME HOWEVER...HILDA WILL APPROACH THE BIG ISLAND FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...AND UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE RATE OF WEAKENING
HAVE LED TO THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE BIG
ISLAND WITH THIS PACKAGE. THE UPDATED INTENSITY FORECAST ALSO
CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS...AND IS CLOSE TO SHIPS GUIDANCE
THROUGH 48 HOURS. THE RATE OF FORECAST WEAKENING THEREAFTER IS CLOSE
TO THE IVCN CONSENSUS...BUT SLOWER THAN SHIPS GUIDANCE.

WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO THE EVENTUAL IMPACTS THAT MAY BE
FELT IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FROM HILDA...THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING. RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS INTO
HILDA WILL OCCUR AT 6 HOURLY INTERVALS STARTING THIS EVENING...WITH
THE NEXT MISSION SLATED FOR THIS MORNING.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 17.5N 151.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 17.9N 151.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 18.4N 152.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 18.8N 153.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 19.1N 154.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 14/1200Z 19.4N 156.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 15/1200Z 19.5N 159.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD

[Yellow Evan]

Live IR

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=20

I think this is the beginning of the end.

http://imageshack.com/a/img661/5454/WvTl1D.gif

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

CIMSS has been overanalyzing wind shear the past few days, but boy, this has fallen off a cliff in recent frames so we'll see.

[Yellow Evan]

Based on Recon data, Hilda likely isn't a hurricane any longer.

[Yellow Evan]

WTPA35 PHFO 111759
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE HILDA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 23A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102015
800 AM HST TUE AUG 11 2015

...HILDA WEAKENING AND DRAWING CLOSER TO HAWAII...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HAWAII COUNTY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM HST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 151.5W
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 510 MI...820 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HILDA.


FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM HST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HILDA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 151.5 WEST. HILDA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH
HILDA FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE HILDA WILL PRODUCE LARGE
AND POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING SURF ALONG EAST AND SOUTHEAST
FACING SHORES OF PORTIONS OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

RAINFALL...HILDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER
PORTIONS OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FROM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA/POWELL

[Kingarabian]

New massive blowup in convection just now.

[wxman57]

Center is now fully exposed. Blow-up of convection is east of the center. Hilda is weakening rapidly. It's below hurricane strength. Recon found max FL wind of about 55kts. There won't be much left of Hilda by the time it reaches Hawaii.

Center is in my red crosshairs:

[Yellow Evan]

Regardless on whether this is still a TC by the time it reaches Hawaii, the affects will pretty much be the same. Flooding still a major threat here.

[Yellow Evan]

Likely for PR reasons only:

EP, 10, 2015081118, , BEST, 0, 171N, 1516W, 65, 998, HU, 34, NEQ, 75, 60, 35, 65, 1009, 160, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, HILDA, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014,

[Kingarabian]

Center is now fully exposed. Blow-up of convection is east of the center. Hilda is weakening rapidly. It's below hurricane strength. Recon found max FL wind of about 55kts. There won't be much left of Hilda by the time it reaches Hawaii.

Center is in my red crosshairs:

Then it's west and slower than the CPHC forecast?

[wxman57]

Regardless on whether this is still a TC by the time it reaches Hawaii, the affects will pretty much be the same. Flooding still a major threat here.

That's if there is still any convection left after it's torn apart by the shear.

[Kingarabian]

WTPA25 PHFO 112030
TCMCP5

HURRICANE HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102015
2100 UTC TUE AUG 11 2015

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HILDA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 151.8W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 60SE 35SW 65NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 151.8W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 151.6W

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 17.3N 152.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 25SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 17.6N 153.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 35SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 17.9N 154.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 25SE 20SW 35NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 18.2N 155.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 25SE 20SW 35NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 18.4N 157.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 18.4N 160.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 151.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA/POWELL

[tolakram]

Live visible.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-W%20PACUS&lat=16&lon=-150&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&type=Animation&quality=95&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=15


I expect mostly a naked swirl moving due west below the big island.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Kingarabian]

Can someone explain to me how Guillermo went NW for the most part while having an exposed LLC? Weren't the low level steering currents east to west as well?

[Kingarabian]

Regardless on whether this is still a TC by the time it reaches Hawaii, the affects will pretty much be the same. Flooding still a major threat here.

I'm worried about the cry wolf affect. This is going to be the third storm in a row. All the media outlets in Hawaii ate getting bashed by users in the comment section thinking the media is publishing articles about storms for advertisement money.