EPAC: HILDA- Post-Tropical

[cane2cane]

Regardless on whether this is still a TC by the time it reaches Hawaii, the affects will pretty much be the same. Flooding still a major threat here.

I'm worried about the cry wolf affect. This is going to be the third storm in a row. All the media outlets in Hawaii ate getting bashed by users in the comment section thinking the media is publishing articles about storms for advertisement money.

I've been lurking on this site for a long time because of my interest in the science of cyclone formation but finally felt compelled to register and post because of this particular issue. The media and the local chicken little's are 100% to blame for the cry wolf effect.

There is a brain dead idiot at work that sends mass emails to every person on the work distribution list screaming about any hurricane, storm, depression, squall, cloudiness, or drizzle that comes within 1000 miles of Hawaii. Seriously, this lunatic was squawking about Hilda when it was literally 1000 miles away. He makes that dummy Guy Hagi (google him if you want to know) seem like a measure, judicious statesman. It's irritating as shi* to get spammed every day with this crap, and it's not healthy for people who suffer from anxiety disorders.

In the end, all this kind of drama and hype will do is desensitize people to the threat of hurricanes. Honolulu has remained immune to the devastating effects of hurricanes for decades if not centuries. The odds are INCREDIBLY low for a Katrina or an Iniki to affect the people of Honolulu but if and when it does happen, a lot of people won't take the warnings seriously BECAUSE of these chicken littles.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102015
1100 AM HST THU AUG 13 2015

THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER OF HILDA REMAINS EXPOSED WITH PULSES OF
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING WELL REMOVED IN THE EAST AND NORTHEAST
QUADRANTS. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE
FROM FROM 1.5 FROM PHFO TO AS HIGH AS 2.5 FROM SAB. GIVEN ITS
CURRENT SATELLITE PRESENTATION HILDA HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE.

THE CURRENT MOTION OF HILDA IS 245 DEGREES AT 10 KT. THERE IS
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK WITH HILDA EXPECTED TO FOLLOW
THE LOW LEVEL STEERING FLOW TOWARD THE WEST SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE RATHER TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
TRACK GUIDANCE AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS CONSENSUS. HILDA WILL PASS FAR
ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TO AVOID ANY WIND
IMPACTS. HOWEVER THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PLUME NORTH OF THE SYSTEM
MAY TRIGGER HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE STATE...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE BIG ISLAND.

HILDA CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE STRONG WEST SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR
BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KT. THIS IS EVIDENT BY ITS RAGGED APPEARANCE IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO WEAKEN HILDA TO A
REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AND HAVE THE SYSTEM DISSIPATED IN
ABOUT 48 HOURS. THIS MAY OCCUR EVEN SOONER IF DEEP CONVECTION
REMAINS ABSENT NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CENTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 16.3N 154.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 15.8N 156.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 15.2N 158.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 15/0600Z 14.7N 160.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BURKE

[Kingarabian]

Regardless on whether this is still a TC by the time it reaches Hawaii, the affects will pretty much be the same. Flooding still a major threat here.

I'm worried about the cry wolf affect. This is going to be the third storm in a row. All the media outlets in Hawaii ate getting bashed by users in the comment section thinking the media is publishing articles about storms for advertisement money.

I've been lurking on this site for a long time because of my interest in the science of cyclone formation but finally felt compelled to register and post because of this particular issue. The media and the local chicken little's are 100% to blame for the cry wolf effect.

There is a brain dead idiot at work that sends mass emails to every person on the work distribution list screaming about any hurricane, storm, depression, squall, cloudiness, or drizzle that comes within 1000 miles of Hawaii. Seriously, this lunatic was squawking about Hilda when it was literally 1000 miles away. He makes that dummy Guy Hagi (google him if you want to know) seem like a measure, judicious statesman. It's irritating as shi* to get spammed every day with this crap, and it's not healthy for people who suffer from anxiety disorders.

In the end, all this kind of drama and hype will do is desensitize people to the threat of hurricanes. Honolulu has remained immune to the devastating effects of hurricanes for decades if not centuries. The odds are INCREDIBLY low for a Katrina or an Iniki to affect the people of Honolulu but if and when it does happen, a lot of people won't take the warnings seriously BECAUSE of these chicken littles.

I see your point. I know. Guy Hagi is ridiculous. I remember every single time we get a Tsunami threat he goes full out, and instills fear into the public with his explanations and predictions that are not scientifically backed.

As for me even when I see the GFS and ECMWF showing hurricane landfalls, I still place odds of a Hawaii landfall at 5%. Overall, Hawaii is protected by cool SST's, strong wind shear by conventionally placed TUTTS and sub tropical jets, and being small in size. But despite all of this, Hawaii is probably the most valuable of all the islands in the pacific. Average price of a house is 500k and it has the USAF most strategic and modern base and one of the most important USNavy bases as well.

So I believe hurricanes need to be taken seriously and be watched. Maybe the media needs to do better in how they warn the public, but it just takes one. If you live in Hawaii, you know exactly how terrible our building structures are here. With 20mph gusts blowing off the roofs of houses in Kaneohe 3 years ago.

[Yellow Evan]

Regardless on whether this is still a TC by the time it reaches Hawaii, the affects will pretty much be the same. Flooding still a major threat here.

I'm worried about the cry wolf affect. This is going to be the third storm in a row. All the media outlets in Hawaii ate getting bashed by users in the comment section thinking the media is publishing articles about storms for advertisement money.

I've been lurking on this site for a long time because of my interest in the science of cyclone formation but finally felt compelled to register and post because of this particular issue. The media and the local chicken little's are 100% to blame for the cry wolf effect.

There is a brain dead idiot at work that sends mass emails to every person on the work distribution list screaming about any hurricane, storm, depression, squall, cloudiness, or drizzle that comes within 1000 miles of Hawaii. Seriously, this lunatic was squawking about Hilda when it was literally 1000 miles away. He makes that dummy Guy Hagi (google him if you want to know) seem like a measure, judicious statesman. It's irritating as shi* to get spammed every day with this crap, and it's not healthy for people who suffer from anxiety disorders.

In the end, all this kind of drama and hype will do is desensitize people to the threat of hurricanes. Honolulu has remained immune to the devastating effects of hurricanes for decades if not centuries. The odds are INCREDIBLY low for a Katrina or an Iniki to affect the people of Honolulu but if and when it does happen, a lot of people won't take the warnings seriously BECAUSE of these chicken littles.

Keep in mind that most tropical cyclone computer models brought this at least close to the Big Island for a while.

[wxman57]

Keep in mind that most tropical cyclone computer models brought this at least close to the Big Island for a while.

They did, but as nothing more than a depression or remnant low.

[Kingarabian]

And they also showed Guillermo making landfall on Hawaii as a hurricane.

[cycloneye]

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102015
500 PM HST THU AUG 13 2015

THE LOW LEVEL CENTER OF HILDA REMAINS WELL EXPOSED WITH PULSES OF
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING WELL REMOVED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM A SYSTEM
TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY BY JTWC UP TO HIGH OF 2.0 FROM SAB LIKELY DUE
TO DVORAK CONSTRAINTS. GIVEN THE CURRENT SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF
HILDA ALONG WITH THE FACT THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS REMAINED WELL
REMOVED FROM THE LOW LEVEL CENTER...HILDA HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A
POST-TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW WITH THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE.

THE CURRENT MOTION OF HILDA IS 250 DEGREES AT 12 KT. THERE IS
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK WITH THE REMNANTS OF HILDA
EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE LOW LEVEL STEERING FLOW TOWARD THE WEST
SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE
RATHER TIGHTLY CLUSTERED TRACK GUIDANCE AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS
CONSENSUS. THE REMNANTS OF HILDA WILL PASS FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH
OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TO AVOID DIRECT IMPACTS. HOWEVER THE
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PLUME NORTH OF THE SYSTEM MAY TRIGGER HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE STATE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE BIG ISLAND.

STRONG WEST SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY
OF THE SYSTEM DURING NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AND RE-GENERATION IS NOT EXPECTED IN
THIS HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS EXPECTED TO SPIN
DOWN SLOWLY WITH THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BE DISSIPATED BY 48 HOURS.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL DISCUSSION ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM...UNLESS
RE-GENERATION OCCURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE
REMNANT LOW...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOHSFNP AND WMO HEADER FZPN40
PHFO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 15.8N 155.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 14/1200Z 15.3N 157.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 15/0000Z 14.7N 160.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 15/1200Z 14.1N 162.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BURKE