ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

[Dean4Storms]

Well if this continues drifting Southward it is going to get into less dry air entrainment.

[caneman]

More showers and storms are building across the Eastern Gulf and heading towards the Nature Coast and Tampa Bay as the low continues to blowup new convection this hour. These areas are already so saturated with record rainfall totals the past several weeks (I think breaking 35+ year records).

Latest radar out of NWS Tampa. You can even see a twist in the echos up by Cedar Key:
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... W&loop=yes

The scary thing is that if it drifts south of Cedar Key before heading East it will have more open water to work with. And, the rain we've received is by far the most I ever remember. Anyone have a city by city link for rainfall in the Tampa Bay area?

[Hammy]

Is there any chance of a special outlook at 11 if the convection persists?

[gatorcane]

Whoa, vorticity has certainly increased! Something is trying to get going that is for sure. Designating this 95L was a good call.

[northjaxpro]

Also, notice how 95L's size is gradually increasing while that convective complex to the southwest of it is shrinking and gradually fading. It is an example in how 95L is flexing its muscles so to speak and is steadily and dynamically organizing this evening drifting south.

Also, is it me or my eyes getting weary or does it look as if on the last frame or two on composite radar loops that 95L is drifting slightly S/SW?

[NCSTORMMAN]

Also, notice how 95L's size is gradually increasing while that convective complex to the southwest of it is shrinking and gradually fading. It is an example in how 95L is flexing its muscles so to speak and is steadily and dynamically organizing this evening drifting south.

Also, is it me or my eyes getting weary or does it look as if on the last frame or two on composite radar loops that 95L is drifting slightly S/SW?

I mentioned earlier that I think it will start drifting south west or redevelop southwest. Glad I am not the only one seeing it.

[gatorcane]

The line of storms off Pinellas/Pasco county seems to be becoming better-defined. It looks to be moving east and if it holds together, should be impacting these counties with some more heavy rainfall.

[caneman]

The line of storms off Pinellas/Pasco county seems to be becoming better-defined. It looks to be moving east and if it holds together, should be impacting these counties with some more heavy rainfall.

Yep, winds picking up now. Should be a good squall.

[caneman]

The line of storms off Pinellas/Pasco county seems to be becoming better-defined. It looks to be moving east and if it holds together, should be impacting these counties with some more heavy rainfall.

Yep, winds picking up now. Should be a good squall.

Good radar link: http://www.baynews9.com/content/news/ba ... radar.html

[NDG]

UL winds are shearing the cloud tops & mid level vorticity again, but not as bad as the last couple of days, COC is still close to Horseshoe Beach just west of Cross City.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, that is where I plotted it about 90 minutes ago. If it continues its drift south the next couple of hours, it will be due west of the mouth of the Suwannee River and it will be a bit farther offshore by about 20 to 30 miles off the coast. 95L is literally crawling folks lol.

[Hammy]

Convection down a bit from earlier but seems to be sustaining itself, and new convection is starting to fire west of the center, while the blob to the SW (which may have been pulling energy away) has been on steadily declining for hours now. I doubt they will, but they should upgrade at 5am if not earlier if the trend continues.

edit: The center looks on radar like it's already moved inland now in Dixie county.

[northjaxpro]

Yep., Hammy. I mentioned a few minutes ago how that complex to the southwest of 95L is fading rather steadily.

[gatorcane]

Latest SAT image link (should work on mobile phones):
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[Stormcenter]

to the NHC's 8pm TWO

[SouthDadeFish]

I'm not sure if the center is drifting south with the convection or if the mid-level circulation is getting sheared off. Hard to tell on conventional satellite imagery because the cirrus canopy is shielding the circulation. It's quite possible we wake up tomorrow to another exposed vortex.

[JKingTampa]

I think the only way this survives is if the coc relocates or a new one forms.

[BobHarlem]

Based on wind reports, the surface low seems really elongated, reaches from just offshore into the Steinhatchee area around the Big Bend, but mostly on land. I think that convection is mostly being sheared off to the south. I don't expect it to develop.

[wxsouth]

Low-level center inland just west of KCTY. Keaton Beach CMAN now has NNE wind. Once deep convection developed, mid-level center was sheared off to the south by strong upper level northerly flow. It's likely done.

[psyclone]

I agree the convection is being sheared...looks to have degraded from earlier. The problem is that actually increases the heavy rain threat in the bay area up to the nature coast as we're in the path of the sheared convection.