WPAC: GONI - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

Ishigaki as per icyclone reporting 958 mb

[euro6208]

Very warm core!

[Dave C]

948.5 mb latest Ishigaki pressure with still strong winds, eye pressure probably low 940s.

[euro6208]

If this was headed for the U.S mainland especially Florida... then all hell would have broken loose...Not here...

[euro6208]

Wow...156 mph gust just in from Ishigaki!

[euro6208]

16W GONI 150823 1200 24.5N 123.9E WPAC 100 948

12z BT out...Cat 3???

NO, this is already a Cat 4 and strengthening!

[euro6208]

Eye temp continues to warm now at +13.9 and ADT is up to 6.5 or 127 knots...

[euro6208]

944 mb lowest measured pressure so far in Ishigaki as icyclone...

[euro6208]

Looks like sustained winds of around 107 knots pounding the city of Ishigaki...Highest ever in August for the Island...

[euro6208]

[1900hurricane]

I do agree JTWC is currently playing catch-up. Satcon SSMIS are both estimating around 115-120 kt, with Satcon getting an early jump on Dvorak before the eye cleared out. I'd be happy with an estimate of about 115 kt right now, or heck, even 110 kt. JMA is sitting at 95 kt right now, which equates to a CI# of 6.0 on their Koba table, which seems like a good estimate for me. If a round of subjective Dvorak analysis were done right now, a warm medium grey eye surrounded by black (since the white ring is too thin in the northern portion of the CDO) would yield a T# of 6.5 without constraints.

[euro6208]

Wow...

88 knots gusting to a whopping 138 knots just in from Ishigaki...

[euro6208]

Very intense...likely nearing Cat 5...

[Dave C]

Only mitigating factor is reds not 100% surrounding cdo but agree it's quite intense. Most damage may occur from 2nd eyewall passage.

[euro6208]

Only mitigating factor is reds not 100% surrounding cdo but agree it's quite intense. Most damage may occur from 2nd eyewall passage.

Still enough for a strong Cat 4.

Hoping for the speedy recovery for the islands but a waste of ACE for the basin since JTWC is too low with their initial intensity...

[euro6208]

This is more intense than Danny was ever when dvorak was way behind when recon found something stronger...



When will recon return to this great basin?

[1900hurricane]

Goni's outflow is streaming into the right entrance region of the jetstreak currently over the Sea of Japan. Maintaining a strong tropical cyclone is all about mass removal, and that certainly is an efficient way to get things done. It will be interesting to see how long Goni can remain in this sweet spot before it gets too close to the jetstreak's shear.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

This is more intense than Danny was ever when dvorak was way behind when recon found something stronger...



When will recon return to this great basin?

But Arthur was cat 1 on recon but cat 3 on dvorak, there's an equilibrium there

[1900hurricane]

At least with Goni, we have some ground truth to factor into intensity estimates, mostly from Ishigaki, and at least to me, they've been seemingly lining up with Dvorak estimates.

Speaking of Dvorak, we're starting to get a complete white ring around the eye. If that can become thick enough and be maintained for a sufficient amount of time, Goni could qualify for a T7.0.

As of 1420Z:

[1900hurricane]

JTWC's 1732Z sat fix bulletin looks like they're going to put Goni at 115 kt. Better, but I still would have rather gone 120 or 125 kt. Their subjective Dvorak analysis gave this a T6.5.