WPAC: ATSANI - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: ATSANI - Typhoon

#81 Postby euro6208 » Mon Aug 17, 2015 3:43 pm

EURO peak of 902 mb and GFS 883 mb recurves it...
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Re: WPAC: ATSANI - Typhoon

#82 Postby euro6208 » Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:09 pm

Image

Wow...
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Re: WPAC: ATSANI - Typhoon

#83 Postby euro6208 » Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:13 pm

Image

WDPN32 PGTW 172100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 17W (ATSANI) WARNING NR 15//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON(TY) 17W (ATSANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 717 NM EAST OF
ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE DEPICTS
DEEPENED CONVECTION WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDS WRAPPING INTO A WELL-
DEFINED 8 NM DIAMETER EYE THAT SUPPORTS THE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS IS BASED ON
CORRESPONDING DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING
AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
LOW VWS AND RADIAL OUTFLOW SUPPORTED BY AN ANALYZED POINT-SOURCE.
NEAR RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VWS. TY 17W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STR TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
REACH PEAK INTENSIFY SOONER.
B. TY 17W WILL REMAIN ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH TAU
72 UNDER THE STEERING STR. VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL AND UPPER-
LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO
FURTHER INTENSIFY LEADING TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 140 BY TAU 36.
AFTER TAU 48, INCREASING VWS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY 17W CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING STR. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF LOWER OHC VALUES
AND INCREASED VWS WILL CONTINUE TO DECAY TY ATSANI. AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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#84 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 17, 2015 8:40 pm

Latest MW suggest an ERC.

This doesn't look as good as it did earlier, but likely around 115 knts. Could have been 120 knots earlier. I don't know why the JTWC is increasing the winds now.
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Re: WPAC: ATSANI - Typhoon

#85 Postby euro6208 » Tue Aug 18, 2015 6:18 am

Image

WDPN32 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 17W (ATSANI) WARNING NR 17//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 17W (ATSANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 622 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED OVERALL CONVECTIVE
SIGNATURE WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDS WRAPPING INTO AN 18-NM DIAMETER
EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE, ALSO EVIDENT
ON A 180551Z GPM MICROWAVE PASS, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS IS BASED ON CONGRUENT AND CONCENTRIC DVORAK
FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TY ATSANI IS
LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05 TO 10 KNOT) VWS AND
EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STR TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 17W WILL REMAIN ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH TAU
72 UNDER THE STEERING STR. VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL AND UPPER-
LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO
FURTHER INTENSIFY LEADING TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 140 BY TAU 36.
AFTER TAU 48, INCREASING VWS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
C. TY 17W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
STR THROUGH TAU 96. AFTERWARD, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING TO THE
NORTH WILL CAUSE A WEAKNESS IN THE STR, TURNING TY 17W SLIGHTLY
POLEWARD. CONCURRENTLY, THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF LOWER OHC VALUES AND
INCREASED VWS WILL CONTINUE TO DECAY TY ATSANI. AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: ATSANI - Typhoon

#86 Postby euro6208 » Tue Aug 18, 2015 6:19 am

000
WWMY80 PGUM 180744
SPSMY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
545 PM CHST TUE AUG 18 2015

GUZ001>005-PMZ151>154-182300-
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-NORTHERN MARIANAS-MARIANAS COASTAL WATERS-
545 PM CHST TUE AUG 18 2015

...TYPHOON ATSANI WILL HAVE SOME AFFECT ON THE NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS...

TYPHOON ATSANI IS CENTERED ABOUT 630 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN
AND 640 EAST-SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN...MOVING TOWARD WEST-NORTHWEST AT
12 MPH. ATSANI IS EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF AGRIHAN BY THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY.

SEA CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS ACROSS THE MARIANA ISLANDS FOR
BOATING ACTIVITIES BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. NORTH OF SAIPAN...COMBINED
SEAS COULD EASILY BUILD INTO A RANGE OF 15 TO 20 FEET WITH WINDS OF
25 TO 35 MPH AS TYPHOON ATSANI PASSES BY FARTHER NORTH.

FRESH TO STRONG MONSOON WINDS WILL ALSO FLOW TOWARD ATSANI IN THE
COMING DAYS SO GUSTY WINDS...LARGE WAVES AND PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN WILL AFFECT MOST OF THE MARIANA ISLANDS. IN PARTICULAR...WINDS
OF 30 MPH WITH STRONGER GUSTS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE ISLANDS OF
FAR NORTHERN CNMI...SUCH AS AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN.

STAY INFORMED ON THE PROGRESS OF TYPHOON ATSANI BY FOLLOWING THE
LATEST STATEMENTS OR ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE ON GUAM. THESE ARE POSTED ON THE WFO GUAM WEB PAGE AT
http://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/GUAM/ (ALL LOWER CASE).

$$

SIMPSON
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Re: WPAC: ATSANI - Typhoon

#87 Postby euro6208 » Tue Aug 18, 2015 6:21 am

105 knots is too low, looks like a high end Cat 4 now...Dvorak supports this...

TXPQ26 KNES 180909
TCSWNP

A. 17W (ATSANI)

B. 18/0832Z

C. 16.6N

D. 155.3E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T6.5/6.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...WMG EYE EMBEDDED IN B AND SURROUNDED BY W FOR DT=6.5.
MET=6.0 WITH PT=6.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SALEMI
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Re: WPAC: ATSANI - Typhoon

#88 Postby euro6208 » Tue Aug 18, 2015 6:23 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 18 AUG 2015 Time : 103000 UTC
Lat : 16:53:22 N Lon : 154:56:55 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.4 / 930.4mb/124.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.4 6.5 6.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 21 km

Center Temp : +13.5C Cloud Region Temp : -72.9C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 167km
- Environmental MSLP : 1006mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 22.8 degrees
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Re: WPAC: ATSANI - Typhoon

#89 Postby euro6208 » Tue Aug 18, 2015 6:37 am

Image
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#90 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Tue Aug 18, 2015 7:51 am

17W ATSANI 150818 1200 17.0N 154.8E WPAC 120 933
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Re: WPAC: ATSANI - Typhoon

#91 Postby euro6208 » Tue Aug 18, 2015 2:15 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 18 AUG 2015 Time : 183000 UTC
Lat : 18:00:09 N Lon : 153:44:34 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.4 / 930.1mb/124.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.0 6.0 6.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 22 km

Center Temp : +12.6C Cloud Region Temp : -66.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 167km
- Environmental MSLP : 1006mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 23.3 degrees
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Re: WPAC: ATSANI - Typhoon

#92 Postby euro6208 » Tue Aug 18, 2015 2:48 pm

The huge circulation of Atsani will likely brush the far Northern Marianas bringing high waves, strong winds, and heavy rains but so far no direct hit is expected from EURO. Bottoms it out at 900 mb as it moves away...

GFS much more north away from the NMI and peaks it at a whopping 881 mb Super Typhoon...
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Re: WPAC: ATSANI - Typhoon

#93 Postby euro6208 » Tue Aug 18, 2015 3:57 pm

Image

WDPN32 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 17W (ATSANI) WARNING NR 19//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 17W (ATSANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 577 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED OVERALL
CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE WITH CURVED BANDS WRAPPING INTO A 18-NM
DIAMETER EYE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS IS HELD SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN THE CONGRUENT DVORAK FIXES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD TO
REFLECT THE SLIGHTLY IMPROVED STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TY ATSANI IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW
(05 TO 10 KNOT) VWS AND EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STR TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 17W WILL REMAIN ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH TAU
72 UNDER THE STEERING STR. VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL AND UPPER-
LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO
FURTHER INTENSIFY LEADING TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 140 BY TAU 24.
AFTER TAU 48, INCREASING VWS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
C. TY 17W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
STR THROUGH TAU 96. AFTERWARD, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING TO THE
NORTH WILL CAUSE A WEAKNESS IN THE STR, TURNING TY 17W POLEWARD.
CONCURRENTLY, THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF LOWER OHC VALUES AND INCREASED
VWS WILL CONTINUE TO DECAY TY ATSANI. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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#94 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Aug 18, 2015 8:21 pm

Making another run at Cat 5

WP, 17, 2015081900, , BEST, 0, 186N, 1529E, 130, 926, ST, 64, NEQ, 30, 30, 25, 30, 1004, 215, 10, 0, 10, W, 0, , 0, 0, ATSANI, D,
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#95 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Aug 18, 2015 11:43 pm

When that outer eyewall first showed up, I didn't think Atsani could have completed the replacement cycle this seamlessly. Wow at that eye. Reminds me somewhat of Nabi from 2005 in size and prominence.

Image
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Re: WPAC: ATSANI - Typhoon

#96 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Aug 19, 2015 1:08 am

Image
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Re: WPAC: ATSANI - Typhoon

#97 Postby euro6208 » Wed Aug 19, 2015 5:34 am

Wow!

No doubt this is a Cat 5 right now...

Very large eye...

Image
Image
Image
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Re: WPAC: ATSANI - Typhoon

#98 Postby euro6208 » Wed Aug 19, 2015 5:52 am

000
WWMY80 PGUM 190753
SPSMY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
6 PM CHST WED AUG 19 2015

GUZ003>005-PMZ153>154-192300-
TINIAN-SAIPAN-NORTHERN MARIANAS-MARIANAS COASTAL WATERS-
6 PM CHST WED AUG 19 2015

...SUPER TYPHOON ATSANI TO AFFECT AGRIHAN...PAGAN...AND ALAMAGAN...

AT 500 PM CHST THE EYE OF SUPER TYPHOON ATSANI WAS AT 19.2 NORTH AND
152.8 EAST...MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 14 MPH. THIS IS ABOUT
400 MILES EAST OF AGRIHAN...400 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN
AND 490 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN.

ATSANI IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWEST THE NEXT FEW DAYS...TAKING IT
TO A CLOSEST APPROACH OF ABOUT 250 MILES NORTHEAST OF AGRIHAN LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

WHILE ATSANI IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT
AGRIHAN...PAGAN...AND ALAMAGAN ISLANDS...NORTHWEST WINDS AT 25 TO 35
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED AS IT PASSES NORTHEAST AND
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...SEAS
WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 FEET...RESULTING IN DANGEROUS SURF OF
20 FEET OR HIGHER. RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO BE HEAVY AS WELL...WITH 3 TO
6 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...HEAVIEST ON AGRIHAN.

BE PREPARED FOR RAINY AND WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
DO NOT ATTEMPT ANY TRAVEL BY BOAT.

WHILE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OVER THE FAR NORTHERN CNMI
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS
OF 20 TO 25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS TINIAN AND SAIPAN THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.

ACROSS TINIAN AND SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY. WINDS WILL RISE TO 20 KNOTS THURSDAY
AND 20 TO 25 KNOTS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 8 TO 11 FEET TONIGHT AND TO BETWEEN 10 AND 14 FEET THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY.

STAY INFORMED ON THE PROGRESS OF SUPER TYPHOON ATSANI BY FOLLOWING
THE LATEST STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ON GUAM.
THESE ARE POSTED ON THE WFO GUAM WEB PAGE AT http://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/GUAM/
(ALL LOWER CASE).

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/ZIOBRO
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Re: WPAC: ATSANI - Typhoon

#99 Postby euro6208 » Wed Aug 19, 2015 5:55 am

Image
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Re: WPAC: ATSANI - Typhoon

#100 Postby euro6208 » Wed Aug 19, 2015 5:56 am

Reminds me of Super Typhoon Melor back in 2009...
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