EPAC: ELEVEN-E - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

Code: Select all

                    * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  INVEST      EP942015  08/16/15  00 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    30    33    36    39    41    40    38    29    18   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS
V (KT) LAND       30    33    36    39    41    40    38    29    18   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS
V (KT) LGE mod    30    33    35    37    39    39    36    29    23    17   DIS   DIS   DIS
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP   N/A   N/A

SHEAR (KT)         2     3     6     9    10     4    10    15    24    18    22   N/A   N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     0    -3     0     0    -2     2     4     0     3    -2    -1   N/A   N/A
SHEAR DIR        100    66    90   120   124   140   132   128   144   133   139   N/A   N/A
SST (C)         28.8  28.3  28.0  27.9  27.3  25.7  24.5  23.7  23.3  23.1  23.0   N/A   N/A
POT. INT. (KT)   153   149   146   145   138   122   109    99    94    91    90   N/A   N/A
200 MB T (C)   -50.9 -51.4 -51.6 -51.3 -50.7 -51.2 -50.9 -51.0 -51.1 -51.1 -51.4   N/A   N/A
TH_E DEV (C)       6     6     5     5     5     4     3     2     2     2     1   N/A   N/A
700-500 MB RH     77    71    66    63    61    57    54    50    43    40    38   N/A   N/A
MODEL VTX (KT)    17    16    17    17    17    14    13    10     7     5     4  LOST  LOST
850 MB ENV VOR    36    45    54    69    65    51    32     0   -15   -34   -35   N/A   N/A
200 MB DIV       126    74    54    43    35    31    25    14    11     5     4   N/A   N/A
700-850 TADV       0    -6    -6     0     1    -1    -1    -2     0    -8    -5   N/A   N/A
LAND (KM)        783   764   775   787   786   843   884   972  1031  1059  1045   N/A   N/A
LAT (DEG N)     16.4  17.2  18.0  18.9  19.7  21.5  23.6  25.1  26.0  26.7  27.5   N/A   N/A
LONG(DEG W)    112.9 114.1 115.3 116.5 117.6 119.8 122.5 124.3 125.5 126.5 127.5   N/A   N/A
STM SPEED (KT)    11    14    14    14    13    15    14     9     6     6     6   N/A   N/A
HEAT CONTENT      40    22    18     7     3     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0

Don't expect a name.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112015
900 PM MDT SAT AUG 15 2015

The last few hours of visible imagery indicated that the large low
pressure area located well to the south-southwest of the Baja
California peninsula had developed a sufficiently well-defined
center of circulation, even if the overall circulation itself was
still somewhat elongated. Also, deep convection has been forming
closer to this center over the past few hours, and Dvorak estimates
from TAFB and SAB were T2.0/30 kt and T2.5/35 kt, respectively.
Advisories have therefore been initiated, and the initial intensity
estimate is 30 kt.

Since the center has just recently become more apparent, the
initial motion estimate is an uncertain 300/10 kt. The depression
is being steered west-northwestward between a mid- to upper-level
low located to its southwest near 17N125W and a large mid-level
high centered over the southwestern United States. This pattern is
expected to cause the cyclone to accelerate northwestward within
the next 12 hours and continue that trajectory through day 4. The
cross-track spread among the track models is small, but there are
some speed differences. For example, the ECMWF is the fastest model
while the HWRF and GFDL are two of the slowest. The official track
forecast is a little faster than the TVCE model consensus and leans
closer toward the GFS and ECMWF solutions.

The depression only has another 24-36 hours before it reaches sea
surface temperatures colder than 26 degrees Celsius. In addition,
water vapor imagery shows a large area of mid-/upper-level dry air
impinging on the southwestern side of the circulation. Given the
system's large and asymmetric appearance, and the short window of
favorable conditions, significant strengthening is not likely, and
the official forecast shows the depression just reaching tropical
storm intensity within the next day or so. This forecast most
closely follows the intensity consensus. The cyclone should become
a remnant low by day 3 and dissipate by day 5, if not sooner.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 16.8N 113.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 18.1N 115.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 19.8N 118.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 21.8N 120.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 18/0000Z 23.7N 123.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 19/0000Z 26.4N 127.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 20/0000Z 28.5N 131.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

[Hurricane Jed]

Asymmetric appearance? That's putting it lightly. This is one of the ugliest systems I have ever laid eyes on. I really have no idea what I am looking at and I've spent the past 10 minutes looking at the live loop of 11-E.

[Yellow Evan]

Code: Select all

EP, 11, 2015081606,   , BEST,   0, 172N, 1140W,  30, 1003, TD,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1006,  210, 120,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,     ELEVEN, M

I don't know what to call it. But if it's a TC, it's an ugly one. Worse than the Atlantic.

[Hurricane Jed]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112015
800 AM PDT SUN AUG 16 2015

Tropical Depression 11-E remains poorly organized with an elongated
cloud pattern oriented from northwest to southeast, associated with
a decrease in convective intensity and coverage as well. Although
the depression barely meets the criteria for a tropical cyclone, a
blend of available satellite intensity estimates support maintaining
an intensity of 30 kt for this advisory,

Cirrus outflow has obscured the low-level center, so the initial
position and motion estimate of 305/15 kt are based on
extrapolation, continuity with the previous forecast, and two
recent SSMI and SSMI/S microwave passes that showed a ragged-looking
inner core. The depression is caught between converging
southeasterly streamflows associated with a deep-layer anticyclone
located over the southwestern United States and a mid-/upper-level
low located about 600 n mi west of the cyclone. The models are in
excellent agreement on this steering pattern remaining stable for
the next several days, which should keep the depression moving in a
northwestward direction until dissipation occurs by 96 hours. The
official forecast track is essentially just an update of the
previous advisory track, and lies roughly midway between the
consensus models TVCE and GFEX.

The deep-layer 850-200 mb wind shear is relatively low, but recent
UW-CIMSS shear analyses indicate that the depression is moving into
a region of 15-20 kt southeasterly mid-level shear. The latter
shear, in conjunction with much drier mid-level air, should cap any
further intensification, and induce weakening by 24 hours when the
cyclone moves over sub-26C SSTs. Transition into a remnant low in
now expected by 36-48 hours, with dissipation forecast to occur by
day 4, if not sooner. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the
IVCN intensity model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 18.5N 115.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 19.9N 117.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 21.8N 120.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 23.6N 122.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/1200Z 25.3N 125.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/1200Z 27.6N 129.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

Is really a big messy system that goes away without being a TS.

[Hurricane Jed]

Probably for the best it doesn't get named. Maybe they saw something we didn't but a postseason downgrade would not surprise me.

[Yellow Evan]

Probably for the best it doesn't get named. Maybe they saw something we didn't but a postseason downgrade would not surprise me.

I guess it met the criteria, but I've seen much much better looking systems not get declared. Last year, I can roll off at least four invests that looked better than this.

[cycloneye]

Bye.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112015
200 PM PDT SUN AUG 16 2015

Convection associated with the depression has continued to become
fragmented and less organized. Multiple small swirls have been noted
in visible satellite imagery rotating around the mean center of the
larger cyclonic gyre, with two notable vorticity centers located
near 19.4N 115.8W and 18.4N 117.7W. The initial position is roughly
halfway between those two vortices. The initial intensity remains at
30 kt, which is consistent with available satellite intensity
estimates.

The initial motion estimate remains 305/15 kt. The NHC model
guidance remains in very good agreement on the depression
maintaining a northwestward motion for the next 72-96 hours, and the
NHC forecast track is, therefore, just an update of the previous
advisory and lies close to the multi-model consensus TVCE.

The depression is expected to move over sub-26C SSTs after 12 hours
and into a drier and more stable airmass, which should result in
the system degenerating into a remnant low within the next 24
hours. Dissipation is forecast to occur by day 4, if not sooner. The
NHC intensity forecast is similar to the IVCN intensity model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 19.3N 117.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 20.7N 119.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 22.6N 121.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 18/0600Z 24.3N 124.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/1800Z 25.7N 126.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/1800Z 28.1N 130.4W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112015
800 PM PDT SUN AUG 16 2015

The tropical depression is not very well organized. Satellite
images indicate that the circulation is elongated from
north-northwest to south-southeast with multiple centers along the
trough axis. The associated deep convection has been shrinking, and
only a small patch remains on the west side of the circulation. The
initial intensity estimate remains 30 kt, in agreement with the
Dvorak classification from TAFB and ADT values from UW-CIMSS. The
depression is headed toward cooler water and an environment of
drier air and stronger shear. These unfavorable conditions should
cause the system to degenerate to a remnant low on Monday and
likely dissipate in about four days, or possibly sooner. The NHC
intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one and follows
the trend in the guidance.

The depression is situated between a mid- to upper-level low to its
southwest and a subtropical ridge over the southwestern United
States. These features are expected to continue to steer the
depression, or its remnants, west-northwestward to northwestward
away from land until it dissipates. The NHC track forecast has
been adjusted to the south of the previous one, mainly to account
for a more southerly initial position.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 19.7N 119.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 21.2N 121.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 23.3N 123.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 18/1200Z 24.9N 126.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 19/0000Z 26.0N 128.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 20/0000Z 27.7N 132.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112015
800 AM PDT MON AUG 17 2015

Convection associated with the depression is becoming sheared out
to the northwest of the low-level center, the latter of which is
becoming increasingly difficult to locate since the circulation is
elongated northwest to southeast. The intensity will remain at 30
kt, based on continuity with the previous advisory and a Dvorak CI
value of T2.0 from TAFB.

The initial motion estimate of 305/14 is based on continuity with
the previous forecast track and recent SSMI/S and AMSU overpasses.
The depression is expected to remain embedded within a deep
southeasterly steering flow, which should cause the cyclone to
continue on a northwestward to west-northwestward course until
dissipation by 96 hours. The NHC model guidance is tightly clustered
through 36 hours, and the official forecast track lies close to the
consensus models TVCE and GFEX.

The depression is now over sub-26 deg C sea-surface temperatures
with colder water ahead of the cyclone. The combination of colder
ocean conditions, drier mid-level air, and increasing southeasterly
vertical wind shear should result in the system's rapid demise
during the next 12 hours or so. The cyclone is expected to become
a remnant low pressure system by 12 hours, and dissipate by 96 hours
when the system will be over 22 deg C to 23 deg C SSTs. The official
intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and closely
follows the consensus model IVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 21.8N 120.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 23.2N 122.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 18/1200Z 24.9N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 19/0000Z 26.1N 127.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 19/1200Z 27.1N 129.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 20/1200Z 29.0N 131.8W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

I thought this was dead already.Next advisory should be the last one.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112015
800 PM PDT MON AUG 17 2015

The depression has lacked significant deep convection for about six
hours now and is well on its way to becoming a remnant low. The
initial wind speed estimate remains 25 kt for this advisory. Since
the depression is over water temperatures of around 24C and well
embedded in a stable air mass, significant convection is unlikely
to return. Therefore, degeneration to a remnant low is expected to
occur within the next 12 hours, and the cyclone is forecast to
dissipate in a few days.

The cyclone is moving northwestward at a fairly quick 18 kt
steered by the flow between a mid- to upper-level low to its
southwest and a subtropical ridge over the southwestern United
States. A slower west-northwestward to northwestward motion is
expected until the cyclone dissipates. The NHC official track
forecast is a little to the north of the previous one, trending
toward the latest consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 24.5N 124.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 25.6N 126.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 19/0000Z 27.0N 128.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 19/1200Z 28.1N 130.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 20/0000Z 29.3N 131.7W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

Bye.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112015
200 AM PDT TUE AUG 18 2015

The depression has not had organized deep convection for quite some
time now and no longer meets the definition of a tropical cyclone.
Therefore, this system has become a non-convective remnant low
and this is the last advisory. All of the models gradually weaken
the low during the next couple of days, and this is reflected below
in the forecast. A slower west-northwestward to northwestward
motion is expected until the cyclone dissipates in a few days, and
the track forecast is close to the model consensus.

For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN01 KWBC, and on the web at
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEP1.shtml.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 24.9N 125.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 18/1800Z 25.9N 127.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 19/0600Z 27.0N 129.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 19/1800Z 28.0N 131.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 20/0600Z 29.0N 132.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake