ATL: DANNY - Remnants - Discussion

[Brent]

An area of disturbed weather located a few hundred miles south of
the Cape Verde Islands over the far eastern Atlantic is associated
with a tropical wave. Development, if any, of this system is
expected to be slow to occur while the wave moves westward at 10 to
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[blp]

[blp]

I believe this is now invest 96. Here we go!

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/96L_tracks_latest.png

[jaguarjace]

Just to the southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.

[jaguarjace]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of disturbed weather located a few hundred miles south of
the Cape Verde Islands over the far eastern Atlantic is associated
with a tropical wave. Development, if any, of this system is
expected to be slow to occur while the wave moves westward at 10 to
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Forecaster Blake

[TheStormExpert]

Still maintaining itself.

[Hammy]

Development chances look about right, though I find it highly unlikely it'll form without absolute model consensus given the Euro's performance in July and the GFS's trend of developing phantom storm after phantom storm this season.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave accompanied by a surface low pressure system is
producing a concentrated area of disturbed weather a few hundred
miles south-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Environmental
conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for gradual
development of this disturbance over the next several days while
it moves westward at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

Forecaster Stewart

[TheStormExpert]

8am TWO.

[northjaxpro]

Well, NHC seems to like this system's chances to actually develop out there in the MDR. It will be interesting to see if we can finally get a tropical cyclone to develop in the hostile Tropical Atlantic this season. If it can maintain and traverse the MDR, it will be the first true Cape Verde storm of this season.

[TheStormExpert]

Well, NHC seems to like this system's chances to actually develop out there in the MDR. It will be interesting to see if we can finally get a tropical cyclone to develop in the hostile Tropical Atlantic this season. If it can maintain and traverse the MDR, it will be the first true Cape Verde storm of this season.

Personally I think if it doesn't gain any or very little latitude over the next 5 days it may have a chance. That's what seems to be the current thinking.

[gatorcane]

Deep convection on the increase with good rotation, saved loop:

[TheStormExpert]

Big area of SAL to the north of it, and Mid Level Dry Air doesn't look too problematic for now. Like I said before it needs to stay at or around 10N to have a chance and remain in a moist enough environment.

[cycloneye]

Stays at at 10N.

96L INVEST 150816 1200 10.0N 27.0W ATL 20 1011

[gatorcane]

Here is a link to the latest vis loop. It has very vigorous vorticity and the convection canopy appears to be maintaining and not shrinking rapidly as it did when it came off of Africa Friday night.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

Regarding the SAL, you can see it to the north (the grey milky color on the loop over the Cape Verde Islands) but it's highest concentration is above 15N well to the north of this invest. SAL should not be a significant problem for it through the 5 day forecast period. SSTs are warm too as it is at a low latitude so that should help with some possible development.

One other thing I noticed is that the low clouds off to the north of the invest were moving south yesterday indicating dry air was getting pumped into the system from a pool of dry air over the Cape Verde islands. Now it seems those low-level cumulus are moving a bit more SW indicating less dry air from the north as low-level winds are veering more to the NE

[wxman57]

Conditions in its path are marginal for any development. If it's not the shear, it's dry air, which dominates the tropics from Africa through the western Caribbean. It probably won't get much better organized than it is now.

It's not just the SAL it must contend with, it's mid-level sinking, dry air:

[hurricanehunter69]

This thing should maintain at a low enough latitude and consequently has a very good chance. The real question for me, is whether or not it becomes a Hurricane? Scratch another one off the list!

[SouthDadeFish]

I agree wxman. It looks like the Euro keeps it just far enough south to stay out of the dry air. However, on visible satellite imagery it already looks like dry, stable air is already being entrained into the circulation, as the recent convective burst is now weakening. The GFS forecasts a very sharp moisture gradient and doesn't develop the disturbance. We'll see.

[northjaxpro]

96L may have a chance to survive to traverse at least past 50 degrees Longitude. Beyond that, with the Caribbean being a very hostile area all season long, I would not wager any bets on 96L surviving intact just yet in approaching at least the NE Caribbean Islands in about a week or so. I preferably would like to see a bit more model support regarding 96L's prospects in the next couple of of days.