ATL: DANNY - Remnants - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12334
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

#1781 Postby Gustywind » Sun Aug 23, 2015 7:59 pm

Radar of Barbados. TS Danny is coming to our east now.

:rarrow: http://www.barbadosweather.org/Composit ... 1440336985
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
tailgater
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3339
Joined: Sun Jul 11, 2004 9:13 pm
Location: St. Amant La.

Re: ATL: DANNY - Tropical Storm- Discussion

#1782 Postby tailgater » Sun Aug 23, 2015 8:11 pm

I won't be surprised if it pulses up again tonight and gets sheared off again tomorrow

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... short.html
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
blp
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2805
Age: 45
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:51 pm
Location: Miami, FL
Contact:
Contact blp

Re: ATL: DANNY - Tropical Storm- Discussion

#1783 Postby blp » Sun Aug 23, 2015 8:13 pm

tailgater wrote:I won't be surprised if it pulses up again tonight and gets sheared off again tomorrow

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... short.html



Agree the shear does this where it relaxes allowing the system to pluse up and then pounds it again.

You can now see a tiny blowup over the center.

Also, keep in mind the models still kept this going at least for a couple more days before dissipation over Hispaniola so not surprised by this.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23499
Age: 46
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#1784 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 23, 2015 8:26 pm

Shear let's up just a little and here comes Danny on the comeback:

Saved loop:
Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5594
Age: 40
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:
Contact Hammy

#1785 Postby Hammy » Sun Aug 23, 2015 8:31 pm

Radar seems to confirm the circulation is currently closed, with all rain elements directly south of the center going (albeit slowly) to the east.
0 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
blp
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2805
Age: 45
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:51 pm
Location: Miami, FL
Contact:
Contact blp

Re: ATL: DANNY - Tropical Storm- Discussion

#1786 Postby blp » Sun Aug 23, 2015 8:31 pm

I have a feeling and I could be wrong but I think the llc may get pulled WNW toward this blow-up. It has happened before in other systems.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 19165
Age: 60
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: DANNY - Tropical Storm- Discussion

#1787 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 23, 2015 8:35 pm

Live IR loop

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=16&lon=-60&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir2.pal&numframes=7&mapcolor=gray
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
NCSTORMMAN

#1788 Postby NCSTORMMAN » Sun Aug 23, 2015 8:47 pm

Danny just die already....
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
tailgater
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3339
Joined: Sun Jul 11, 2004 9:13 pm
Location: St. Amant La.

Re:

#1789 Postby tailgater » Sun Aug 23, 2015 8:48 pm

Gustywind wrote:Radar of Barbados. TS Danny is coming to our east now.

:rarrow: http://www.barbadosweather.org/Composit ... 1440336985


looks like someone just turn on the lite switch in the last twenty mins.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8487
Age: 30
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re:

#1790 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Aug 23, 2015 8:49 pm

NCSTORMMAN wrote:Danny just die already....

Shhh!!! He might here you! :lol:
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.
Top
AutoPenalti
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3949
Age: 27
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida

#1791 Postby AutoPenalti » Sun Aug 23, 2015 8:49 pm

Wow, no means no for Danny. This storm is something I really want to analyze.
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Top
User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5594
Age: 40
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:
Contact Hammy

Re:

#1792 Postby Hammy » Sun Aug 23, 2015 8:52 pm

NCSTORMMAN wrote:Danny just die already....


Tracking these storms to near death and watching them come back is part of what makes tracking interesting. :wink:
0 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
NCSTORMMAN

Re: Re:

#1793 Postby NCSTORMMAN » Sun Aug 23, 2015 8:53 pm

Hammy wrote:
NCSTORMMAN wrote:Danny just die already....


Tracking these storms to near death and watching them come back is part of what makes tracking interesting. :wink:



lol I have to admit that is very true.
0 likes   
Top
jvega15
Tropical Wave
Tropical Wave
Posts: 1
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 11:35 pm

#1794 Postby jvega15 » Sun Aug 23, 2015 8:53 pm

Danny was suppose to die before page 10, 92 pages later danny is still here!!. maybe is the warm water?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
AJC3
Admin
Admin
Posts: 3872
Age: 60
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:04 pm
Location: West Melbourne, Florida
Contact:
Contact AJC3

Re:

#1795 Postby AJC3 » Sun Aug 23, 2015 8:53 pm

Hammy wrote:Radar seems to confirm the circulation is currently closed, with all rain elements directly south of the center going (albeit slowly) to the east.


Actually, radar pretty much confirms the opposite. There's a vigorous vort center east of Dominica, but it's at the cusp of an open wave. Look at the motion of the cells to it's NW and W. There is nothing in that quadrant that's moving NW to SE, which could indicate a closed ground relative wind circulation.
0 likes   
Top
NCSTORMMAN

#1796 Postby NCSTORMMAN » Sun Aug 23, 2015 8:54 pm

Looks like a light switch was flipped on and shear has really relaxed. Dry air is moving away from Danny and weakening a good bit. This is his window here either now or more than likely never.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Bocadude85
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2941
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Apr 18, 2005 2:20 pm
Location: Honolulu,Hi

Re:

#1797 Postby Bocadude85 » Sun Aug 23, 2015 9:00 pm

NCSTORMMAN wrote:Looks like a light switch was flipped on and shear has really relaxed. Dry air is moving away from Danny and weakening a good bit. This is his window here either now or more than likely never.


I don't think shear has dropped enough for Danny to make much of a come back. There is one lone thunderstorm over the llc.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
tropicwatch
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3205
Age: 60
Joined: Sat Jun 02, 2007 10:01 am
Location: Panama City Florida
Contact:
Contact tropicwatch

#1798 Postby tropicwatch » Sun Aug 23, 2015 9:03 pm

:uarrow: The lone ranger. Couldn't resist 8-)
0 likes   
Tropicwatch


Agnes 72', Eloise 75, Elena 85', Kate 85', Charley 86', Florence 88', Beryl 94', Dean 95', Erin 95', Opal 95', Earl 98', Georges 98', Ivan 2004', Arlene 2005', Dennis 2005', Ida 2009' Debby 2012' Irma 2017' Michael 2018'
Top
NCSTORMMAN

Re: Re:

#1799 Postby NCSTORMMAN » Sun Aug 23, 2015 9:03 pm

Bocadude85 wrote:
NCSTORMMAN wrote:Looks like a light switch was flipped on and shear has really relaxed. Dry air is moving away from Danny and weakening a good bit. This is his window here either now or more than likely never.


I don't think shear has dropped enough for Danny to make much of a come back. There is one lone thunderstorm over the llc.



According to the maps I read they are at or below 20 knots? Right and they are dropping? If not then light or no light it will be the same end result of blown off convection.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12334
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

#1800 Postby Gustywind » Sun Aug 23, 2015 9:11 pm

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
23/2345 UTC 15.6N 59.2W T2.0/2.5 DANNY
23/1745 UTC 15.5N 58.2W T2.0/2.5 DANNY
23/1145 UTC 15.6N 56.7W T2.5/3.0 DANNY
23/0545 UTC 15.4N 55.3W T2.5/3.5 DANNY
22/2345 UTC 15.6N 54.0W T3.0/4.0 DANNY
22/1745 UTC 16.0N 52.4W T4.0/4.0 DANNY
22/1145 UTC 15.4N 51.4W T3.5/4.5 DANNY
22/0545 UTC 15.1N 50.0W T4.0/4.5 DANNY
21/2345 UTC 14.9N 49.3W T4.5/5.0 DANNY
21/1745 UTC 14.3N 48.4W T4.5/5.0 DANNY
21/1145 UTC 13.8N 47.8W T5.0/5.0 DANNY
21/0545 UTC 13.5N 46.9W T4.5/4.5 DANNY
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2015”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 126 guests