ATL: DANNY - Remnants - Discussion

[gatorcane]

I'll throw my continuing doubful two cents in here: Convection is collapsing for the most part, and all indications based on cloud motion tells me that the actual low center has been left behind in the dry air around 22W. Given the decreasing model support (which was never strong to start with) and continuing dry air surround it, I'd personally put 20-30% chances of development.

I don't see any LLC being left behind. Nice rotation and heading west at the moment. I see signs of organization looking at this loop:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[Hammy]

I'll throw my continuing doubful two cents in here: Convection is collapsing for the most part, and all indications based on cloud motion tells me that the actual low center has been left behind in the dry air around 22W. Given the decreasing model support (which was never strong to start with) and continuing dry air surround it, I'd personally put 20-30% chances of development.

I don't see any LLC being left behind. Nice rotation and heading west at the moment. I see signs of organization looking at this loop:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_meteosat.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_met_4km_visir2_floater&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12
At roughly 11N/23-24W you can see the spin of some sort of low pressure just sort of sitting in place. At best the system is extremely elongated and will suffer the same fate as the Gulf system at the start of the month, otherwise it is leaving the circulation behind alltogether.

[gatorcane]

Hammy, the 850MB vorticity maps show something elongated so that does justify what you are seeing. Clearly it has a ways to go before it becomes organized but it will likely be a gradual process, maybe mid-week as NHC stated is when we may get a designation.

Convection is on the decrease but it is diurnal minimum out there and this is what happened yesterday too. I would expect an uptick later on tonight and into the early morning hours out there.

[Alyono]

convection decreasing with plenty of dry air present. Along with decreasing model support from the 12Z runs

I give this a 30% chance at most of developing

[gatorcane]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 162333
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Cloudiness and showers associated with a broad area of low pressure
located several hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands
are showing some signs of organization. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for development of this system during the next few
days and a tropical depression could form by midweek while it moves
westward near 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[gatorcane]

convection decreasing with plenty of dry air present. Along with decreasing model support from the 12Z runs

I give this a 30% chance at most of developing

Dry air around yes, but lots of deep convection building just to the south of the LLC within the ITCZ. 5-day model guidance hasn't changed a whole lot if you include all of the operational models collectively with both the ECMWF and UKMET developing cyclones in the same general vicinity. Actually both those models have arguably become more bullish in the 5-day timeframe from the 00Z runs. Hard to bet against both those reliable models. Beyond that the ECMWF has backed down some but still shows an organized low, maybe a weak T.S. heading west towards the Leewards, but far out beyond 168 hours, a lot can change regarding conditions, steering, etc.

It is interesting the GFS and NAVGEM (and GEM to some extent) are both showing some kind of low interaction with another wave to the east of 96L that slows the westward progress of 96L perhaps inhibiting development...but NHC seems to be considering it an outlier at the moment. Definitely no consensus with the models on 96L though.

[AtlanticWind]

convection decreasing with plenty of dry air present. Along with decreasing model support from the 12Z runs

I give this a 30% chance at most of developing

18z HWRF brings it to 975 mb, may be gaining model support

[NCSTORMMAN]

convection decreasing with plenty of dry air present. Along with decreasing model support from the 12Z runs

I give this a 30% chance at most of developing

18z HWRF brings it to 975 mb, may be gaining model support

If it gets to that it would no doubt have a fighting chance to make it across the Atlantic.

[gatorcane]

A look at the big picture tonight. We see 96L now fully in view on this wide-vide image on the bottom-right. That deep convection, should it get pulled into the LLC just to the north, would certainly help 96L. Also seems the moisture content across the Atlantic basin is gradually on the increase with several areas of convection observed, still a ways to go before conditions will be favorable across the basin, but tracking well climatologically speaking looking at the calendar.

[cycloneye]

In the past 24 hours it has not climbed in latitude.Still at 10N on 00z Best Track.

96L INVEST 150817 0000 10.0N 29.2W ATL 25 1011

[TheStormExpert]

Is any of this moisture increase across the Atlantic associated with any Kelvin Waves? I know the MJO is non-present at the moment.

[Fego]

In the past 24 hours it has not climbed in latitude.Still at 10N on 00z Best Track.

96L INVEST 150817 0000 10.0N 29.2W ATL 25 1011

1011mb, before it was 1010mb. Right?

[ninel conde]

It hasnt passed the JB test yet. no tweets about it.

[Ptarmigan]

I think Invest 96L has a chance at development. NHC gives it a moderate chance of developing in the next few days.

[Brent]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON AUG 17 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located several hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands
continue to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for development during the next few days, and a
tropical depression will likely form by the middle of the week
while the system moves westward or west-northwestward near 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

Forecaster Blake

[chaser1]

Quick, someone tell 96L that its in the MDR, buried within a nest of air dryer than the Sahara itself, LOL. Its presently displaying an impressive satellite presentation.

[Hammy]

Quick, someone tell 96L that its in the MDR, buried within a nest of air dryer than the Sahara itself, LOL. Its presently displaying an impressive satellite presentation.

Convection looks to be decreasing from earlier, and doing this at diurnal minimum is not a good indication of development. Model support is basically collapsing (none of the main computer models other than the usually over-bullish UKMET) are showing development in the latest runs, and if anything it's looking more and more like an elongated ITCZ trough than a tropical low. I literally don't see any reason to have raised development chances at this point.

[MaineWeatherNut]

Quick, someone tell 96L that its in the MDR, buried within a nest of air dryer than the Sahara itself, LOL. Its presently displaying an impressive satellite presentation.

Convection looks to be decreasing from earlier, and doing this at diurnal minimum is not a good indication of development. Model support is basically collapsing (none of the main computer models other than the usually over-bullish UKMET) are showing development in the latest runs, and if anything it's looking more and more like an elongated ITCZ trough than a tropical low. I literally don't see any reason to have raised development chances at this point.

Well that's why your not the one making the official forecasts... The NHC seems to see something there so I'll place my bet on the NHC's forecasts and likely development even if it's only a TD.

[NDG]

Really surprised that the NHC went with a high chance in its latest TWO, chances seem to be decreasing, IMO.

[Gustywind]

First appareance on SSD... at a pretty low latitude.


17/0545 UTC 9.8N 29.9W T1.0/1.0 96L -- Atlantic