ATL: DANNY - Models

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AutoPenalti
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#821 Postby AutoPenalti » Sun Aug 23, 2015 2:22 am

Wow, in the end, it was just a fish.
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hiflyer
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Re: ATL: DANNY - Models

#822 Postby hiflyer » Sun Aug 23, 2015 3:11 am

"Wow, in the end, it was just a fish."

Lot of them end up that way...especially early....but now that Danny has started to "plow the road" time to look east.
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Re:

#823 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Sun Aug 23, 2015 4:47 am

AutoPenalti wrote:Wow, in the end, it was just a fish.
It's not a fish. The forecast track and models pass over some of the Lesser Antilles, where there are watches or warnings up for some of the northern islands. Also, some models shifted more west. This is not a fish near term and what it will be long term is still uncertain. (and any re-curvature could always hit Bermuda)
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#824 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Aug 23, 2015 8:21 am

12z Track Guidance :darrow:

Image

12z Intensity Guidance :darrow:

Image
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Re: Re:

#825 Postby toad strangler » Sun Aug 23, 2015 8:31 am

NHC track exactly with the BAMS lol, I'm sure thats just coincidence.

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#826 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 23, 2015 10:20 am

06Z GFDL, 960MB: :eek:

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Re:

#827 Postby Raebie » Sun Aug 23, 2015 10:24 am

gatorcane wrote:06Z GFDL, 960MB: :eek:

Image


Wow...if that's what heavy shear does to it, then...
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Re: Re:

#828 Postby SFLcane » Sun Aug 23, 2015 10:27 am

Bams keep it weak lol if it even attemps to intensify near the Bahamas its recurving even quicker. Nothing here to drive it west persistent 10+ year weakness remains.
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Re: ATL: DANNY - Models

#829 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 23, 2015 10:44 am

12Z GFS

Seems to move Danny further south.

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Re: ATL: DANNY - Models

#830 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 23, 2015 10:51 am

Image
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Re: ATL: DANNY - Models

#831 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 23, 2015 10:57 am

Over Hispaniola this run, vorticity wiped out next frame, but does look stronger for longer.

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Re:

#832 Postby toad strangler » Sun Aug 23, 2015 11:04 am

gatorcane wrote:06Z GFDL, 960MB: :eek:

Image



GFDL has consistently been showing a solution like this. I can only assume that its a model that has been "tossed" by NHC this go around.

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Re: Re:

#833 Postby toad strangler » Sun Aug 23, 2015 11:18 am

The GFDL is also in the re-curve camp. NHC does not seem to be buying either re-strengthening OR Fish

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Re: Re:

#834 Postby toad strangler » Sun Aug 23, 2015 11:37 am

The GFDL is also in the re-curve camp. NHC does not seem to be buying either re-strengthening OR Fish

Image
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#835 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 23, 2015 2:45 pm

12Z UKMET shows the low from Danny staying in tact and shows a track further south, passing south of Cuba, south of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and into the SE Gulf. In the previous UKMET runs, it opened Danny into a wave.

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Re:

#836 Postby WPBWeather » Sun Aug 23, 2015 2:52 pm

gatorcane wrote:12Z UKMET shows the low from Danny staying in tact and shows a track further south, passing south of Cuba, south of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and into the SE Gulf. In the previous UKMET runs, it opened Danny into a wave.

Image



Yes! Some of the models on the SFWMD web site show Danny bending back to the FL straits and the Gulf. I think I mentioned the TCVN line for Danny kissed Ft. Lauderdale yesterday. What a crazy storm.
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#837 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Aug 23, 2015 7:46 pm

00z Model Guidance trending up again.

00z Track Guidance :darrow:

Image

00z Intensity Guidance :darrow:

Image
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#838 Postby floridasun78 » Sun Aug 23, 2015 7:58 pm

how can models see this getting stronger their missing data i n those runs
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Re: ATL: DANNY - Models

#839 Postby Frank2 » Sun Aug 23, 2015 8:11 pm

That makes no sense - the system is almost dissipated...
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Re: ATL: DANNY - Models

#840 Postby WPBWeather » Sun Aug 23, 2015 8:14 pm

Frank2 wrote:That makes no sense - the system is almost dissipated...



Ok now. We've had Danny dead or dying for days now. I cannot sleep until I know. Will there be a tomorrow for him??
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