WPAC: KILO - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: KILO - Typhoon

#681 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 08, 2015 6:47 pm

WDPN31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 03C (KILO) WARNING NR 77//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 03C (KILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 927 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A STRUGGLING CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE DUE TO DRY AIR ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY STARTING TO WRAP INTO THE CIRCULATION. AN
081612Z SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A LARGE AND PARTIALLY
CLOSED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH THE BULK OF CONVECTION CONFINED TO
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR
ANIMATION AND THE SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON AN ASSESSMENT OF
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS FROM ALL AGENCIES.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD
OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS); HOWEVER, THE SUBSIDENCE
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY IS INHIBITING INTENSIFICATION. ALONG
TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE 26 CELSIUS. TY KILO IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYERED SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE; HOWEVER, WIND RADII HAVE
BEEN ENLARGED BASED ON AN 081118Z ASCAT PASS.
B. TY 03C WILL CONTINUE TO ROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE STEERING STR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN TURN POLEWARD.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS ALLOWING THE TYPHOON TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY. BEYOND TAU 36, TY
03C WILL CROSS INTO COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND BEGIN TO
INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WHICH WILL ALSO INCREASE VWS. TY KILO WILL
BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR TAU 36 AND IS FORECAST TO
COMPLETE ETT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A STRONG COLD-CORE
LOW. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT PROVIDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: KILO - Typhoon

#682 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Sep 08, 2015 7:16 pm

euro6208 wrote:Disappointed in the models with the majors depicting a major Cat 5 typhoon over the area.

EURO still bottoms this out at 927 mb...


A general rule of thumb is don't believe model depictions of extremely intense tropical cyclones north of 20*N. Unless you have a special reason to conclude otherwise, they won't verify. There are so many negative factors from the mid-latitudes that can affect a tropical cyclone whilst traversing subtropical waters that one of them is bound to. Even my prediction from a few days ago is going to fall flat on its face.
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Re: WPAC: KILO - Typhoon

#683 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 09, 2015 5:04 am

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 03C (KILO) WARNING NR 79//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 03C (KILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 331 NM NORTH OF
MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI DEPICTS TIGHT CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A 13 NM NEARLY CLOUD-FILLED EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON THE MSI EYE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
HAS BEEN HELD AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS FROM ALL AGENCIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A GOOD ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). ALONG TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE 26
CELSIUS. TY KILO IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE DEEP LAYERED STR, SPECIFICALLY A WESTERN EXTENSION.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 03C WILL CONTINUE TO ROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE STEERING STR OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND THEN TURN MORE POLEWARD.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED OVER THE NEXT 36 TO
48 HOURS ALLOWING THE TYPHOON TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY. AS THE
EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE DECAYS, THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE RIDGE AXIS
BY TAU 36. AT THIS TIME, THE SYSTEM WILL START TO BE IMBEDDED IN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND START
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. TY KILO IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A STRONG COLD-CORE LOW. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT PROVIDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: KILO - Typhoon

#684 Postby supercane » Wed Sep 09, 2015 10:49 am

Is a Severe Tropical Storm by JMA:
WTPQ20 RJTD 091500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1517 KILO (1517)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 091500UTC 31.1N 151.7E GOOD
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 101500UTC 35.3N 148.6E 75NM 70%
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 111200UTC 43.0N 147.2E 140NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =
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Re: WPAC: KILO - Tropical Storm

#685 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 09, 2015 8:13 pm

WDPN31 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 03C (KILO) WARNING NR 81//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03C (KILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 472 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) SURROUNDED BY A RAPIDLY DECAYING VERTICAL STRUCTURE, WITH
DEEP CONVECTION CONSTRAINED TO THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. A 091841Z
SSMIS 91 GHZ PASS SUPPORTS THIS ANALYSIS AND INDICATES THAT COOL DRY
AIR HAS NEARLY COMPLETELY ENVELOPED THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC IN EIR WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS, WHICH IS AN AVERAGE OF
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD AND REFLECTS
THE RAPID DECAY OF 03C. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES STEADY VWS OF
15-20 KTS, WITH SHARP TROUGHING SOUTHWEST OF 03C AIDING THE NOTED
SUBSIDENCE. THESE NEGATIVE FACTORS ARE BEING PARTIALLY COMPENSATED
BY MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SSTS REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
UNTIL THE SYSTEM CROSSES 35 DEGREES NORTH. TS KILO IS TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYERED STR TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE, HOWEVER, BASED ON THE
CURRENT TREND, DISSIPATION OVER WATER MAY OCCUR PRIOR TO THE
COMPLETION OF EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION.
B. TS 03C WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY ROUND THE STEERING STR AND
RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST BY TAU 36 IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING
DEEP LAYER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER JAPAN. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS,
OUTFLOW FROM TS 03C WILL BEGIN TO TAP INTO THE MID-LATIDUDE WESTERLY
FLOW, WHICH MAY ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO TEMPORARILY SLOW THE EFFECTS OF
INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SST. EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT)
WILL BEGIN BY TAU 24 AS THE TROUGH MOVES CLOSER, AND WILL BE
COMPLETE BY 48. THE BULK OF THE DYNAMICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLS
FOR A SLOW DISSIPATION THROUGH THE END OF THE ETT, LIKELY DUE TO
OUTFLOW CONSIDERATIONS. HOWEVER, IN LIGHT OF THE CURRENT DATA, IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT TS 03C MAY DISSIPATE OVER WATER, ENDING ITS LONG RUN
PRIOR TO COMPLETION OF ETT. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT
AGREEMENT PROVIDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: KILO - Tropical Storm

#686 Postby euro6208 » Thu Sep 10, 2015 6:24 am

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 03C (KILO) WARNING NR
83//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03C (KILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 553 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, TIGHTLY-WRAPPED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
DISPLACED TO THE NORTH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE
EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED CENTER EVIDENT IN THE MSI WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS BASED ON
AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45 TO
55 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO
40 KNOTS) SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY
VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SST VALUES REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AT
ABOUT 27 DEGREES CELSIUS. TS KILO IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYERED STR TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 03C WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD AND WILL BECOME
EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH BY TAU 36. OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS, ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW MAY ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO
TEMPORARILY SLOW THE EFFECTS OF INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SST.
AFTER TAU 24, VWS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE FURTHER AND SST VALUES
WILL RAPIDLY DECREASE TO LESS THAN 20 DEGREES CELSIUS, THEREFORE, TS
03C WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT
PROVIDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: KILO - Post-Tropical

#687 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 10, 2015 9:43 pm

Final Warning by JTWC.

WTPN31 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03C (KILO) WARNING NR 086
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 38.5N 147.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 38.5N 147.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 43.2N 147.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 29 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 48.9N 149.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 39.7N 147.4E.
TROPICAL STORM 03C (KILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 309 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME FULLY
EXPOSED AND THE CONVECTIVE BANDING MORE RAGGED. THE SYSTEM IS NOW
ENVELOPED BY A MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC TROUGH AND IS RAPIDLY LOSING
ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT COMPLETES AN EXTRA TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT). GUIDANCE CALLS FOR THIS ETT TO BE COMPLETE
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TS KILO WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AS IT ROUNDS THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE DUE TO VERY COLD SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, HOWEVER, IT IS
EXPECTED TO BE A GALE FORCE LOW ONCE THE ETT COMPLETES.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z
IS 16 FEET.//
NNNN
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#688 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Sep 10, 2015 9:46 pm

86 warnings, wow.
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#689 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Sep 11, 2015 6:02 pm

Kilo was active for a long time. Here's a list of all the storms that developed after Kilo developed but then died before Kilo:

Loke
Erika
Ignacio
Jimena
Fred
Kevin
Etau
Grace
Linda
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