WPAC: KILO - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS hair to the right. Really weak though.

[Kingarabian]

Another huge shift for the Euro, this time to the west and it misses Hawaii.

[Yellow Evan]

My only take is that due to the large size, these models are just gonna flip flop. We don't have a particularly well-defined center yet, thus screwing up the initialization. I will note that the ECMWf run may have been intilzied a little too far south, however.

I'd wait till we get a consolidated center. Right now, these runs are more aren't very reliable.

[Kingarabian]

My only take is that due to the large size, these models are just gonna flip flop. We don't have a particularly well-defined center yet, thus screwing up the initialization. I will note that the ECMWf run may have been intilzied a little too far south, however.

I'd wait till we get a consolidated center. Right now, these runs are more aren't very reliable.

Well the thing is, is that global models are capable of creating centers. Meaning there does not need to be a defined center.

I think the issue here is the handle on that trough and that ridge. Which is why we need a G-IV plane.

[Yellow Evan]

My only take is that due to the large size, these models are just gonna flip flop. We don't have a particularly well-defined center yet, thus screwing up the initialization. I will note that the ECMWf run may have been intilzied a little too far south, however.

I'd wait till we get a consolidated center. Right now, these runs are more aren't very reliable.

Well the thing is, is that global models are capable of creating centers. Meaning there does not need to be a defined center.

I think the issue here is the handle on that trough and that ridge. Which is why we need a G-IV plane.

While they are able to creating their own center, but you often still some flip flooping when the exact formation of a well-defined LLC differs from run to run to model to model, especially in larger cyclones like these.

[Yellow Evan]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST TUE AUG 18 2015

For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.

1. A broad area of nearly stationary low pressure is about 885 miles south-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. Environmental conditions appear to support slow development in this area during the next couple of days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, medium, 60 percent.

[Kingarabian]

My only take is that due to the large size, these models are just gonna flip flop. We don't have a particularly well-defined center yet, thus screwing up the initialization. I will note that the ECMWf run may have been intilzied a little too far south, however.

I'd wait till we get a consolidated center. Right now, these runs are more aren't very reliable.

Well the thing is, is that global models are capable of creating centers. Meaning there does not need to be a defined center.

I think the issue here is the handle on that trough and that ridge. Which is why we need a G-IV plane.

While they are able to creating their own center, but you often still some flip flooping when the exact formation of a well-defined LLC differs from run to run to model to model, especially in larger cyclones like these.

I see what you mean but the models seem to be struggling with how long the ridge remains intact and how long/strong the weakness will be.

[Alyono]

starting to organize now

[Kingarabian]

[srainhoutx]

Aloha from Waikiki Beach/Oahu. The 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron will arrive at Hickam Field tomorrow and begin 12 hourly missions to 93C (potential Kilo) tomorrow evening/early Friday morning. Currently Flash Flood Watches are hoisted for all of the Hawaiian Islands mainly due to the upper low N of Hawaii pulling in abundant tropical moisture from the south across the Island Chain. Several inches of rainfall is expected across the higher terrain the next day or two. The weekend forecast currently calls for increasing rain and winds with higher waves along the South and SE facing beaches of the Hawaiian Island Chain depending on the eventual track of the developing Tropical Cyclone to the SSE of Hawaii.

[srainhoutx]

Official RECON tacking for 93C is up...

Code: Select all

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT WED 19 AUGUST 2015
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z AUGUST 2015
         TCPOD NUMBER.....15-085
.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: FIX A DEVELOPING SYSTEM SOUTH OF
       THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS NEAR 13.8N 151.4W AT 21/1800Z AND
       NEAR 14.8N 154.0W AT 22/0600Z.
$$
JWP


[Alyono]

very surprised the G-IV is not flying this. We have an almost certain US landfall

[srainhoutx]

very surprised the G-IV is not flying this. We have an almost certain US landfall

Looks like they are more interested in Danny than potential Kilo. That said the assets are on the way with the 53rd.

[Alyono]

12Z Canadian over Maui

[JtSmarts]

Hope all our Hawaiian members are safe and well prepared. As the models are showing, this one may catch them.

[Alyono]

EC doing the full windshield wiper effect. well west of the islands now

[Yellow Evan]

1. A broad area of nearly stationary low pressure is about 915 miles south-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. Environmental conditions appear to support slow development in this area during the next couple of days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, medium, 60 percent.

[srainhoutx]

Looks like a broad low pressure is developing near 9N/144W.

[Kingarabian]

I think the GFS ensembles make the most sense right now. They're right in the middle between the Euro and the GFS.

[Kingarabian]

12z GFDL and HWRF shifted west as well with GFDL having landfall west of the big Island and the HWRF barely missing the Big Island to the east.

GFS seems to be an outlier.
But as for 93C, it looks like it needs to get going now.