WPAC: KILO - Post-Tropical

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#621 Postby Ntxw » Mon Aug 31, 2015 7:55 pm

galaxy401 wrote:Since it looks like it may maintain Cat 3+ strength for well over a week that makes me wonder: What is the longest a cyclone has maintained major hurricane status?


I don't know what the record is, but I suspect Ioke 2006 is a good place to start. That hurricane holds longest cat 4+ hours at 198 hours. Also it is the record holder for longest Super Typhoon equivalent status, and also the world record for ACE at 82 total.
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Re: CPAC: KILO - Hurricane

#622 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 31, 2015 10:09 pm

HURRICANE KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER 46
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032015
500 PM HST MON AUG 31 2015

EYEWALL CONVECTION APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS
BUT A CLOUD-FILLED EYE IS STILL EVIDENT IN THE SATELLITE IMAGES. THE
UPPER LEVEL CLOUD PATTERN HAS BEEN ASYMMETRIC AND BEEN RESTRICTED TO
THE WEST ALL DAY DUE TO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A 2213 UTC AMSU PASS
SHOWED A PARTIAL EYEWALL AND A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN BANDS THAT
WERE PRESENT SEVERAL HOURS AGO. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES CAME IN
AT 5.5/102 KT FROM SAB AND JTWC...AND 115 KT FROM PHFO. THE UW/CIMSS
ADT ESTIMATE AT 0000 UTC CAME IN AT 115 KT. BASED ON A BLEND OF
THESE DATA AND THE DEGRADATION IN KILO/S SATELLITE
PRESENTATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE HAS
BEEN LOWERED TO 110 KT. A 2129 UTC ASCAT PASS HELPED REFINE THE WIND
RADII...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT WHERE RADII WERE LARGER
THAN PREVIOUSLY DEPICTED.

KILO HAS REMAINED ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK ALL DAY WITH AN INITIAL
MOTION OF 340/7 KT AS IT MOVES AROUND A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE
EAST. AFTER ABOUT 36 HOURS...A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD EASTWARD
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF KILO AND WILL TURN THE CYCLONE SLOWLY
TOWARD THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST. MOST OF THE OBJECTIVE AIDS REMAIN
TIGHTLY GROUPED THROUGH 36 HOURS...THEN DIVERGE BEYOND THAT TIME
FRAME. THE DIVERGENCE IN THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST TRACKS IS DUE TO
DIFFERING DEPICTIONS BY THE VARIOUS MODELS OF THE STRENGTH AND
ORIENTATION OF THE FORECAST RIDGE DEVELOPMENT. THE CURRENT FORECAST
HAS BEEN NUDGED SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF
CONSENSUS...GFEX...WHICH PUTS KILO ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD PATH
FOLLOWING ITS THE LEFT TURN AFTER 36 HOURS. THIS WILL TAKE KILO
ACROSS THE DATELINE INTO THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC THIS EVENING.

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR APPEARS TO HAVE RESULTED IN SOME WEAKENING OF
KILO TODAY. SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THIS SHEAR SHOULD EASE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH 48 HOURS. AFTER SOME NEAR
TERM WEAKENING...KILO SHOULD STRENGTHEN AGAIN BENEATH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL REMAIN ABOVE 29C ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.
THUS...THE CURRENT FORECAST DROPS KILO TO 105 KT AT 12 HOURS BUT
GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS THE CYCLONE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS IS CLOSE TO THE IVCN CONSENSUS AND SHIPS.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL ADVISORY FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED BY RSMC
TOKYO JAPAN. FOR U.S. INTERESTS...SEE THE PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED
BY THE U.S. NWS WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE IN GUAM...AND DEPARTMENT OF
DEFENSE WARNINGS ISSUED BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 22.6N 179.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 23.4N 179.7E 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 24.3N 179.2E 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 24.8N 178.5E 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 25.0N 178.0E 115 KT 135 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 24.5N 176.7E 115 KT 135 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 24.0N 174.5E 120 KT 140 MPH
120H 06/0000Z 23.5N 171.5E 125 KT 145 MPH

$$
FORECASTER KODAMA
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#623 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Aug 31, 2015 11:07 pm

Ntxw wrote:
galaxy401 wrote:Since it looks like it may maintain Cat 3+ strength for well over a week that makes me wonder: What is the longest a cyclone has maintained major hurricane status?


I don't know what the record is, but I suspect Ioke 2006 is a good place to start. That hurricane holds longest cat 4+ hours at 198 hours. Also it is the record holder for longest Super Typhoon equivalent status, and also the world record for ACE at 82 total.


After poking around a little bit, it looks like Ioke is tied for the longest time at category 3 or higher with the San Ciriaco Hurricane (Hurricane 3) from the 1899 Atlantic Hurricane Season at 11.25 days each. However, while only 10.25 of Ioke's time as a major was consecutive, all San Ciriaco's time as a major hurricane was in one stint according to HurrDat. Other notables I've looked into include Ivan '04 with 10 days as a major (9 consecutive) and Isabel '03 with 8 (all consecutive) days as a major, and Paka ’97 with 8.75 days (6.75 consecutive), Now, this list is far from all-encompassing and there may be omissions. For example, I left out John '94 because that many basin crossings is a pain to get data for, and I haven't even touched the Southern Hemisphere. Still though, that should at least be a good starting point.

*EDIT: Hurricane John had 8.25 days as a major, but I think the record that I found was the Charleston Hurricane (Hurricane 3 in 1893) with 11.5 days analyzed to have been a major hurricane, all consecutive.
Last edited by 1900hurricane on Tue Sep 01, 2015 2:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: CPAC: KILO - Hurricane

#624 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 01, 2015 12:08 am

It should enter the WPAC later today...

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#625 Postby Cyclenall » Tue Sep 01, 2015 1:53 am

Its cool how this is a mimic of Ioke 2006, same path, same long duration of a major hurricane/typhoon, same model outputs showing sub 870 mb pressures, etc.

A lot of these Cpac to Wpac crossers bend NW and then WSW again at the dateline.
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#626 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Sep 01, 2015 2:09 am

CPHC said they were passing this off to the WPac agencies, but I don't think it's actually going to have crossed the dateline by the next advisory.
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#627 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Sep 01, 2015 2:25 am

JMA picked Kilo up.

TY 1517 (KILO)
Issued at 07:20 UTC, 1 September 2015

<Analyses at 01/06 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N22°55'(22.9°)
E180°00'(180.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 01/18 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N23°40'(23.7°)
E179°30'(179.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slowly
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 02/06 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N24°20'(24.3°)
E178°50'(178.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slowly
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL240km(130NM)

<Forecast for 03/06 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N24°35'(24.6°)
E177°40'(177.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slowly
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL310km(170NM)

<Forecast for 04/06 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N24°50'(24.8°)
E176°30'(176.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL410km(220NM)
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#628 Postby Alyono » Tue Sep 01, 2015 3:46 am

umm... it is still EAST of the date line by a good 45 miles
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Re: CPAC: KILO - Hurricane

#629 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 01, 2015 4:37 am

Alyono wrote:umm... it is still EAST of the date line by a good 45 miles


Indeed...

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 03C (KILO) WARNING NR 47//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 03C (KILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 802 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A 6-NM RAGGED EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN AN ASYMMETRIC AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION. A 010620Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS THE BULK OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH A ROUND MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE. OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION,
HOWEVER, THERE IS ABOUT A 15-NM SPREAD IN POSITION FIXES DUE TO
PARALLAX ERROR BETWEEN THE GOES AND MTSAT-2 IMAGERY. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-
LOW TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 105
KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS FROM
ALL AGENCIES. TY 03C IS CURRENTLY TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE FOR 03C AND
SETS THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TY 03C IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD THROUGH TAU
24 BUT SHOULD TURN SLOWLY WESTWARD AS THE STR BUILDS WEAKLY TO THE
NORTH. DUE TO THE WEAK STR AND PERSISTENT MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW
NORTH OF 34 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE, THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING OF THE WESTWARD TURN WITH DYNAMIC GUIDANCE SHOWING A WIDE
SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS WITH VARYING TRACK SPEEDS. AFTER TAU 36, A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM BUT IS
EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY TRACK NORTHEASTWARD BY TAU 60, WHICH WILL ALLOW
THE STR TO BUILD TO THE NORTH. TY 03C SHOULD THEN ACCELERATE
WESTWARD. TY 03C IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AFTER TAU 24 DUE TO
IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, TY 03C IS FORECAST TO
ACCELERATE WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
TRACK UNDER THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. TY 03C IS
FORECAST TO PEAK AT 125 KNOTS BY TAU 72 AND SHOULD MAINTAIN
INTENSITY AS IT TRACKS OVER A POOL OF WARMER SST (30 TO 32 CELSIUS).
OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: CPAC: KILO - Hurricane

#630 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 01, 2015 4:38 am

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 010840
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON KILO (03C) ADVISORY NUMBER 47
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU CP032015
800 PM CHST TUE SEP 1 2015

...TYPHOON KILO NEARING THE DATE LINE...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.3N 179.7W

ABOUT 925 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND
ABOUT 1270 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAJURO
ABOUT 2420 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH...355 DEGREES AT 8 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON KILO WILL BE NEAR
LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 179.7 WEST...MOVING NORTHWARD AT 8
MPH. KILO IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND MAKE A TURN TOWARD THE WEST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 120 MPH. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THEN KILO IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN.

TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER...
AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT UP TO 145 MILES.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY ON TYPHOON KILO WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AT 200 AM.

$$

MCELROY
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#631 Postby Alyono » Tue Sep 01, 2015 5:03 am

if it is east of the dateline, this is NOT a typhoon. It's still a hurricane
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Re: CPAC: KILO - Typhoon

#632 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 01, 2015 5:29 am

The models continue to show a massive strong typhoon in the making. GFS bottoms this out at 869 mb and stays sub -900mb for 4 days and has it coming very close to Japan's capital Tokyo...

Image
Image

EURO at 908 mb but recurves it well east of Japan...

Image
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Re: CPAC: KILO - Typhoon

#633 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 01, 2015 5:36 am

Will be traversing over the warmest area of the WPAC untapped by the numerous storms this season...SST's 30 to 32C and anomalies close to 2C...

Image
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Re:

#634 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 01, 2015 5:43 am

spiral wrote:Maybe it will rival or better tip in MB if the conditions permit .


Impossible...

Tip had recon whereas every storm since 87 didn't have in the WPAC. There are countless of typhoons that are stronger than Tip like Haiyan but aren't official since there is no more recon...
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Re: CPAC: KILO - Typhoon

#635 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 01, 2015 7:09 am

03C KILO 150901 1200 23.3N 179.7W CPAC 105 944

Two straight BT's still at CPAC but CPHC has stopped issuing warnings...Doesn't matter, ACE belongs to the WPAC at the end. :lol:
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#636 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Sep 01, 2015 8:08 am

Looking pretty rough at the moment. It's like it hit a wall trying to cross the Dateline (which it still hasn't crossed yet).

Image
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Re: CPAC: KILO - Typhoon

#637 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 01, 2015 10:03 am

Still has not crossed the dateline.

WDPN31 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 03C (KILO) WARNING NR 48//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 03C (KILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 798 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO
A BANDING EYE. A 011316Z GMI 36GHZ IMAGE REVEALS A SMALL MICROWAVE
EYE FEATURE WITH THE BULK OF THE SPIRAL BANDING LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION, HOWEVER, THERE IS ABOUT A 14-NM
SPREAD IN POSITION FIXES DUE TO PARALLAX ERROR BETWEEN THE GOES AND
MTSAT-2 IMAGERY. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-LOW TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 100 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 90 TO 102 KNOTS. TY 03C IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 03C IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD THROUGH TAU
12 BUT SHOULD TURN SLOWLY WESTWARD AS THE STR BUILDS WEAKLY TO THE
NORTH. DUE TO THE WEAK STR AND PERSISTENT MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW
NORTH OF 34 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE, THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING OF THE WESTWARD TURN WITH DYNAMIC GUIDANCE SHOWING A WIDE
SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS WITH VARYING TRACK SPEEDS. AFTER TAU 36, A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM BUT IS
EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY TRACK NORTHEASTWARD BY TAU 60, WHICH WILL ALLOW
THE STR TO RE-BUILD TO THE NORTH. TY 03C SHOULD THEN ACCELERATE
WESTWARD. TY 03C IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AFTER TAU 24 DUE TO
IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, TY 03C IS FORECAST TO
ACCELERATE WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
TRACK UNDER THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. TY 03C IS
FORECAST TO PEAK AT 125 KNOTS BY TAU 72 AND SHOULD MAINTAIN
INTENSITY AS IT TRACKS OVER A POOL OF WARMER SST (30 TO 32 CELSIUS).
OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

Image
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#638 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Sep 01, 2015 11:42 am

Looks like it's finally crossing the dateline now. Shear seems to be relaxing, but the core has taken a beating and will likely take a little time to recover.
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Re: Re:

#639 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Sep 01, 2015 3:05 pm

euro6208 wrote:
spiral wrote:Maybe it will rival or better tip in MB if the conditions permit .


Impossible...

Tip had recon whereas every storm since 87 didn't have in the WPAC. There are countless of typhoons that are stronger than Tip like Haiyan but aren't official since there is no more recon...


In terms of pressure, Tip might be the strongest storm worldwide.

But in terms of winds, yes, there have been countless storms stronger than Tip IMO. I doubt Kilo gets there though.
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#640 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Sep 01, 2015 3:24 pm

If the outer bands congeal into one giant outer eyewall, Kilo might not strengthen for a while, and that's not even taking into account the plethora mid-latitude influences that can negatively impact a storm (such as the giant mass of dry air NW of Kilo, represented by the greens and yellow on the microwave image). Trekking north of 20*N can be a hazardous proposition for a tropical cyclone, especially for longer periods of time.

Image
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