WPAC: KILO - Post-Tropical

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Re: CPAC: KILO - Typhoon

#641 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 01, 2015 3:58 pm

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Re: WPAC: KILO - Typhoon

#642 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 01, 2015 4:15 pm

12Z sure is crazy...Bottoms it out at 864 mb and stays at 882mb or lower for three consecutive days...

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#643 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Sep 01, 2015 4:41 pm

I don't think Kilo will be a Tip challenger while north of 20*N. The ceiling might be an entry-level 140 kt category 5 in my opinion, which is still plenty strong, but everything will probably have to go right. I do think Kilo will be spending a good deal of time as a category 3-4 typhoon though.
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#644 Postby bahamaswx » Tue Sep 01, 2015 6:46 pm

Welcome to tomorrow Kilo!
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#645 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Sep 01, 2015 8:29 pm

Having some issues with dry air now. The western portion of the circulation is intermittently spitting out outflow boundaries.

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Re: WPAC: KILO - Typhoon

#646 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 01, 2015 10:00 pm

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 03C (KILO) WARNING NR 49//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 03C (KILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 784 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A 9-NM BANDING EYE. THE EIR LOOP ALSO SHOWS SUBSIDENCE
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY THAT IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR LOOP AND
LINES UP WELL WITH THE MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 011442Z F15 37GHZ PASS.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE IMAGES WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT
OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD AND REFLECTS THE SLIGHT
DEGRADATION OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TY 03C IS
IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS
MOSTLY OFFSET BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENCED ON ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ADDITIONALLY, AN INDUCED TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST
IS CAUSING THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 03C IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS AS IT TRANSITIONS TO A DIFFERENT STEERING MECHANISM - A
BUILDING STR TO THE NORTHWEST. AFTER THE NEW STR ASSUMES STEERING,
THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS WESTWARD. HOWEVER, THE NEW STR ALSO
INTRODUCES ADDITIONAL SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. THIS,
IN ADDITION TO THE NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF THE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST,
WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, IMPROVED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND FAVORABLE VWS IN ADDITION TO WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL PROMOTE GRADUAL RE-INTENSIFICATION, REACHING 90
KNOTS BY TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, TY KILO IS FORECAST TO
ACCELERATE WESTWARD AS THE SYSTEM SOLIDLY TRACKS UNDER THE SOUTHERN
BOUNDARY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED STR. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS DESCRIBED IN PARA 3.B ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND ENHANCE
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION, REACHING 120 KNOTS BY END OF FORECAST. THERE
IS A WIDE SPREAD AMONG THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE MEMBERS
IN BOTH LATERAL AND SPEED OF TRACK, HIGHLIGHTING THE LARGE VARIANCE
IN THE STEERING MECHANISM TRANSITION SOLUTIONS. IN VIEW OF THIS,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: KILO - Typhoon

#647 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 02, 2015 4:55 am

WDPN31 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 03C (KILO) WARNING NR 51//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 03C (KILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 768 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
10-NM RAGGED EYE. A 020602Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS MULTIPLE
CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER WITH A FRAGMENTED EYEWALL
OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT AND A 15-NM DIAMETER MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION AND
TRACK MOTION CHANGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 85 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 77 TO 90 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES
TO INDICATE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, WHICH IS
HINDERING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TY 03C IS TRACKING SLOWLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NARROW EXTENSION
OF THE STR TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 03C IS EXPECTED TO SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT TRACKS WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36. A BROAD MIDLATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH (AXIS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG 170E) IS FORECAST TO
DEEPEN TO THE NORTH OF TY 03C, FURTHER WEAKENING THE STR. THE BULK
OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES VERY SLOW (1 TO 3 KNOTS)
OR EVEN QUASI-STAIONARY TRACK MOTION BETWEEN TAU 12 AND 36 AS THE
TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD. AFTER TAU 36, THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
RAPIDLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD ALLOWING THE STR TO RE-BUILD TO THE
NORTH. CONSEQUENTLY, TY 03C WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE WESTWARD. DUE
TO THE IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH, TY 03C SHOULD GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AFTER TAU 12.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, TY KILO IS FORECAST TO
ACCELERATE WESTWARD AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS UNDER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE DEEP-LAYERED STR. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH A 200-NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 96 AND 120;
HOWEVER, FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT IN THE EARLY TAUS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TAU 72, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW 03C TO
INTENSIFY AT A FASTER RATE TO A PEAK OF 120 KNOTS. SPECIFICALLY, A
VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG UPPER-LOW TO THE EAST AND THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK OVER A
POOL OF VERY WARM SST (30 TO 32C).//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: KILO - Typhoon

#648 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 02, 2015 5:33 am

Image

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 020936
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON KILO (03C) ADVISORY NUMBER 51
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU CP032015
800 PM CHST WED SEP 2 2015

...TYPHOON KILO TURNING WEST-NORTHWEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 179.2E

ABOUT 880 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND
ABOUT 1305 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAJURO
ABOUT 2365 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...300 DEGREES AT 5 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON KILO WAS LOCATED
BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 179.2 EAST...
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH. KILO IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A SLOW
WEST-NORTHWEST DRIFT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...THEN TURN SLOWLY WEST
THURSDAY NIGHT AND WEST-SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 100 MPH. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED
IN INTENSITY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THEN KILO IS FORECAST
TO START INTENSIFYING AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.

TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE CENTER...
AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT UP TO 145 MILES.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM THURSDAY MORNING.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE
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Re: WPAC: KILO - Typhoon

#649 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 02, 2015 5:53 am

Seems stationary and dumping plenty of rain, up to 20 inches in the southern periphery...
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#650 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Sep 02, 2015 1:46 pm

Looks like Kilo has begun the process of reorganizing its core. Some of the bands appear to be developing a new eyewall. If the current set of congealing bands ends up becoming the dominant eyewall as it currently looks, the eyewall diameter probably won't be too large and unwieldy to hinder future strengthening. However, if the outermost bands end up forming a giant eyewall, it'll be slow going.

Image

Something else that needs to be brought up is the possibility of upwelling. Kilo will not be moving too much for the next day or two, bringing it into play. The water Kilo is currently over is some of the warmest in the world right now, but at almost 25*N, isn't extraordinarily deep. Once moving, the water will be plenty supportive of a high intensity storm, but if it doesn't move for too long, it could burn through the warm surface layer. if upwelling affects the fledgling core, it'll be just one more thing that could stunt Kilo's development.

Image

Image
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Re: WPAC: KILO - Typhoon

#651 Postby euro6208 » Thu Sep 03, 2015 6:45 am

WDPN31 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 03C (KILO) WARNING NR 55//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 03C (KILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 712 NM EAST-NORTHEAST
OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 01 KNOT OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN ASYMMETRIC
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE THAT HAS LOST ITS EYE FEATURE. THE CORE IS
BEING SLIGHTLY ELONGATED TO THE NORTHEAST DUE TO INTERACTION WITH A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM MAINTAINS AN EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND NEAR RADIAL OUTFLOW ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY,
WHICH IS SUSTAINING THE CURRENT CONVECTION. A 030549Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A SMALL (10-NM) MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WHICH
SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOVEMENT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 80 KNOTS BASED ON A SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE CORE AND A SUBSEQUENT INCREASE
IN DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT, IN ADDITION TO THE EXCELLENT OUTFLOW NOTED
ABOVE, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) NEAR 29 CELSIUS ARE VERY
FAVORABLE. HOWEVER, THE SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY,
CAUSED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST, IS INHIBITING THE RATE
OF INTENSIFICATION. TY 03C IS TRACKING SLOWLY WESTWARD IN A
COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN TWO SUB-TROPICAL RIDGES
(STR); ONE TO THE EAST AND ONE TO THE WEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 03C WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT.
BEYOND TAU 24, A MID-LATITUDE RIDGE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH
STRENGTHENING THE STEERING STR TO THE WEST, ALLOWING IT TO BUILD AND
REORIENT NORTH OF THE TYPHOON. THIS DOMINANT STEERING RIDGE WILL
INCREASE THE FORWARD TRANSLATIONAL SPEED OF THE SYSTEM ON A WESTWARD
TRAJECTORY. MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM AS
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO FIGHT THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE. THE
INTENSIFICATION RATE WILL INCREASE BEYOND TAU 24 AS THE SUBSIDENCE
ALLEVIATES AND THE TYPHOON MOVES INTO SSTS ABOVE 30 CELSIUS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TY KILO WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE
WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED STR.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY UNCHANGED, ALLOWING TY
KILO TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL TRACK MOTION; HOWEVER, TRACK SPEEDS VARY
GREATLY DUE TO THE COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT. FURTHERMORE, A
SLIGHT BIFURCATION REMAINS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST BETWEEN NAVGEM
AND THE REMAINING GLOBAL MODELS. DUE TO THE MODEL DISCREPANCIES
NOTED ABOVE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN
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#652 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Sep 03, 2015 9:47 am

As mentioned by JTWC, subsidence west of Kilo is still doing a number on the system. The dry air from the sinking air has eaten up a good chunk of the SW quad again.

Image

Image

Image
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#653 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Sep 03, 2015 11:15 am

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#654 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Sep 03, 2015 10:40 pm

Yuck.

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Re: WPAC: KILO - Typhoon

#655 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 04, 2015 5:03 am

Image

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 040924
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON KILO (03C) ADVISORY NUMBER 59
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU CP032015
800 PM CHST FRI SEP 4 2015

...TYPHOON KILO WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 176.1E

ABOUT 675 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND
ABOUT 1170 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAJURO
ABOUT 1400 MILES EAST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA
ABOUT 2160 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SOUTHWEST...230 DEGREES AT 6 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON KILO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 176.1 EAST...MOVING SOUTHWEST
AT 6 MPH. KILO IS EXPECTED TO TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST BY SATURDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUE A WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 90 MPH...BUT KILO IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY AGAIN OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER
AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT TO 140 MILES.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM SATURDAY MORNING.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE
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Re: WPAC: KILO - Typhoon

#656 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 04, 2015 5:07 am

WDPN31 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 03C (KILO) WARNING NR 59//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 03C (KILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 597 NM EAST-NORTHEAST
OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE CURVED BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE STRUCTURE OF TY KILO CONTINUES TO BE
ELONGATED DUE TO PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY AND
INTERACTION WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST. A 040536Z
SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE BULK OF CONVECTION ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY DUE TO PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WHICH IS PROHIBITING CURRENT DEVELOPMENT. THE CURRENT POSITION
IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP AND SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE FIXES FROM RJTD
AND PGTW WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
LOWERED BASED ON DECREASING DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL
AGENCIES AND REFLECTS THE STRUGGLING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH THE 20
TO 25 KNOT VWS NULLIFYING THE EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW; HOWEVER,
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ABOVE 30 CELSIUS REMAIN FAVORABLE.
TY 03C HAS STARTED TO ACCELERATE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) REORIENTS NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 03C WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD
TRAJECTORY ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DOMINANT STEERING STR
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT MODERATE INTENSIFICATION AS
THE VWS DECREASES BELOW 20 KNOTS AND SSTS REMAIN ABOVE 30 CELSIUS,
BUT REDUCED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL INHIBIT THE RATE OF
INTENSIFICATION. TY KILO WILL REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS BY
TAU 72 DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TY 03C WILL BEGIN TO TURN
NORTHWESTWARD AS IT NEARS THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING
STR. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL IMPROVE AS THE SYSTEM REGAINS A
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL; HOWEVER, DECREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND
INCREASING VWS WILL SERVE TO SLIGHTLY WEAKEN THE TYPHOON. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST TRACK
DIRECTION; HOWEVER, THEY REMAIN CONFLICTED ON THE FORWARD
TRANSLATIONAL SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE POSITIONING OF THE TRACK, THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE TRACK SPEED
LENDS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN
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#657 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Sep 04, 2015 7:46 am

Fresh pass shows a giant outer eyewall. Even under ideal conditions, it's going to take some time to get that to contract. Strengthening will probably be on the slow side.

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ASCAT shows that the strongest winds have already moved out to the outer eyewall.

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*EDIT: to fix image (hopefully)
Last edited by 1900hurricane on Fri Sep 04, 2015 7:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: KILO - Typhoon

#658 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 04, 2015 3:54 pm

21:00 UTC warning:

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 03C (KILO) WARNING NR 61//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 03C (KILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 513 NM EAST-NORTHEAST
OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS MAINTAINED OVERALL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 041626Z F16 37GHZ IMAGE
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS BASED ON
AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE SUSTAINED
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN
AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
ADDITIONALLY, THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST IS CAUSING
SUBSIDENCE ALONG THAT SIDE OF THE CYCLONE. HOWEVER, A STRONG
NORTHEASTWARD OUTFLOW INTO A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS PROVIDING AMPLE
VENTILATION TO THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. MOREOVER, SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN CONDUCIVE AT 30 CELSIUS PLUS. TY 03C IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 03C WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ON A WESTWARD TRAJECTORY ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXPECT MODERATE INTENSIFICATION AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS NOTED
ABOVE REMAIN UNCHANGED. THIS WILL ALLOW TY KILO TO REACH A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS BY TAU 48.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TY KILO WILL BEGIN TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AS IT
NEARS THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR. UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WILL IMPROVE AS THE SYSTEM REGAINS A POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL; HOWEVER, DECREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND INCREASING VWS
WILL SERVE TO WEAKEN THE TYPHOON. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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#659 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Sep 04, 2015 6:53 pm

The outer eyewall looks like it's finally starting to form a complete permanent ring on visible imagery, and boy is it big. It's going to take a little time to contract that big boy, but shear and subsidence is no longer harassing Kilo, and as long as that remains true, steady strengthening should ensure. I like JTWC's 120 kt peak, but it wouldn't surprise me if it was met a little later, closer to tau 72 on their last warning. I'm generally a bit more bearish north of 20*N, but as long as Kilo is tracking mostly west under the more protected center portion of the ridge, shear shouldn't be much of an issue, and the water is plenty warm enough for a strong tropical cyclone in motion. Kilo will eventually have to cross the gnarly wake left by Atsani, but that shouldn't happen until tau 96 or so and by then, Kilo should be past peak intensity. Speaking of Atsani, if Kilo manages to clear all the junk/old core debris from it's eye, it will at least initially be a fair bit larger than Atsani's.

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#660 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Sep 04, 2015 8:18 pm

I almost feel like I'm spamming at this point, but watching Kilo's outer eyewall take shape is fascinating to me.

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