WPAC: KILO - Post-Tropical

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#661 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Sep 04, 2015 9:45 pm

I'm curious to see what Dvorak pattern screening is used for the next round of sat fixes.
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Re: WPAC: KILO - Typhoon

#662 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 05, 2015 6:53 am

WDPN31 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 03C (KILO) WARNING NR 63//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 03C (KILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 436 NM NORTHEAST OF
WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHTLY-
CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST (CDO) FEATURE. A 050721Z SSMIS IMAGE RESOLVES THE
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CDO AND SUGGESTS A WEAK
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 77 (KNES, PGTW) TO 90 KNOTS (RJTD).
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF 12E. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN CONDUCIVE AT 29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. TY 03C IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 03C WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ON A WESTWARD TRAJECTORY ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXPECT MODERATE INTENSIFICATION AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS NOTED
ABOVE REMAIN UNCHANGED. THIS WILL ALLOW TY KILO TO REACH A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS BY TAU 36.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TY KILO WILL BEGIN TO TURN WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: KILO - Typhoon

#663 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 05, 2015 6:58 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 05 SEP 2015 Time : 111500 UTC
Lat : 23:32:51 N Lon : 171:58:39 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.5 / 971.7mb/ 77.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.5 4.5 3.9

Center Temp : -57.1C Cloud Region Temp : -66.3C

Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 128km
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 40.8 degrees
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#664 Postby StormingB81 » Sat Sep 05, 2015 7:03 am

Question. This has been a storm for 15 days. The record is 31 days. My question is IF it went that far would it still count since it was in different basins? I am guessing it could maybe have a shot at longest traveled? Just asking. Thanks
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Re: WPAC: KILO - Typhoon

#665 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 05, 2015 7:06 am

EURO still bottoms this out as a Cat 5 but weaker...911mb as it recurves east of Japan...

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Re: WPAC: KILO - Typhoon

#666 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 05, 2015 7:23 am

Well well well...Although Kilo has had trouble trying to organize, GFS still explodes this down to 890mb...

Image
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Re:

#667 Postby Extratropical94 » Sat Sep 05, 2015 10:36 am

StormingB81 wrote:Question. This has been a storm for 15 days. The record is 31 days. My question is IF it went that far would it still count since it was in different basins? I am guessing it could maybe have a shot at longest traveled? Just asking. Thanks


Yes, it would count, since the current record holder, Typhoon/Hurricane John, also moved through more than one basin (EPAC/CPAC/WPAC). IMO, Kilo won't make it to 7165 miles which is the longest traveled, also set by John.
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Re: WPAC: KILO - Typhoon

#668 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 05, 2015 3:58 pm

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 052100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 03C (KILO) WARNING NR 65//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 03C (KILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 342 NM NORTHEAST OF
WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
TIGHTLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A 40-NM DIAMETER EYE.
BASED ON THE WELL-DEFINED CENTER, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS IS BASED ON
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE
(15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT IS MOSTLY OFFSET BY A ROBUST
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO A LOW TO THE NORTHEAST. ADDITIONALLY,
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN CONDUCIVE AT 29 TO 30 DEGREES
CELSIUS. TY 03C IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 03C WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ON A WESTWARD TRAJECTORY ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXPECT MODERATE INTENSIFICATION AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS NOTED
ABOVE REMAIN UNCHANGED. THIS WILL ALLOW TY KILO TO REACH A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS BY TAU 36.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TY KILO WILL BEGIN TO TURN WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST
TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: KILO - Typhoon

#669 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 05, 2015 4:06 pm

Image

Big eye...
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Re: WPAC: KILO - Typhoon

#670 Postby euro6208 » Sun Sep 06, 2015 4:43 am

WDPN31 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 03C (KILO) WARNING NR 67//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 03C (KILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 301 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A 33-NM RAGGED EYE WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING. A
060510Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE REVEALS SYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE
WITH A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE
INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
ASSESSED AT 80 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 77 TO 90 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
THAT IS MOSTLY OFFSET BY ROBUST EASTWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN CONDUCIVE AT 29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.
TY 03C IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. ADJUSTED 34-KNOT WIND RADII LARGER
BASED ON THE 052305Z ASCAT DATA.
B. TY 03C WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DOMINANT STR TO
THE NORTH. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A 145-NM
SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72. TY 03C IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 115 KNOTS DUE TO GENERALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS INCLUDING IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AFTER
TAU 48.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TY KILO WILL TURN NORTHWESTWARD THEN
NORTHWARD AS IT BEGINS TO RE-CURVE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. TY 03C SHOULD WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY
AFTER TAU 96 AS IT BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AND ENCOUNTERS
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE FANS OUT WITH
INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE RE-CURVE, HOWEVER, ALL
GUIDANCE INDICATES A RE-CURVE WELL EAST OF HONSHU. OVERALL, THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: KILO - Typhoon

#671 Postby euro6208 » Sun Sep 06, 2015 4:46 am

Image

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 060932
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON KILO (03C) ADVISORY NUMBER 67
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU CP032015
800 PM CHST SUN SEP 6 2015

...TYPHOON KILO MAINTAINING INTENSITY...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.1N 167.9E

ABOUT 340 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND
ABOUT 875 MILES EAST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA
ABOUT 1195 MILES NORTH OF MAJURO
ABOUT 1680 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON KILO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 167.9 EAST...MOVING
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. KILO IS EXPECTED MAINTAIN THIS TRACK
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 90 MPH. KILO IS STILL FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN BEGIN A SLOW WEAKENING TREND
ON THURSDAY.

TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE CENTER
AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT TO 190 MILES.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

$$

ZIOBRO
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Re: WPAC: KILO - Typhoon

#672 Postby euro6208 » Sun Sep 06, 2015 4:54 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 SEP 2015 Time : 090000 UTC
Lat : 24:21:01 N Lon : 167:57:05 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.0 / 960.5mb/ 90.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.9 5.2 5.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 24 km

Center Temp : -7.1C Cloud Region Temp : -57.4C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 150km
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 38.3 degrees
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Re: WPAC: KILO - Typhoon

#673 Postby euro6208 » Sun Sep 06, 2015 5:41 am

Latest EURO still bottoms this out as a Cat 5, 915 mb...
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#674 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Sep 06, 2015 8:57 am

If Kilo wants to get strong again, it needs to do it sooner than later. With only three days left over waters supportive of holding a high-intensity storm, time is running out. Core issues have arisen once again, so I think there's a decent chance Kilo never regains major status.

Image

Image
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#675 Postby Extratropical94 » Sun Sep 06, 2015 1:51 pm

03C KILO 150906 1800 24.5N 166.5E 90 956
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Re: WPAC: KILO - Typhoon

#676 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 07, 2015 4:20 am

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 03C (KILO) WARNING NR 71//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 03C (KILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 369 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A 17-NM IRREGULAR EYE WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING. A
060457Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE REVEALS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING CONFINED
PRIMARILY TO THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH ERODING CONVECTION OVER
THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE IRREGULAR EYE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 80 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 77 TO 90 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY ROBUST EASTWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY,
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) REMAIN CONDUCIVE AT 29 TO 30 DEGREES
CELSIUS. TY 03C IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 03C WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DOMINANT STR TO
THE NORTH. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU
48. AFTER TAU 48, GUIDANCE FANS OUT NEAR THE RE-CURVE POINT WITH A
200-NM SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72. TY 03C IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 95 KNOTS DUE TO THE MARGINALLY-
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TY KILO WILL RE-CURVE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. TY 03C SHOULD WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TAU 72 AS IT BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SST.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALTHOUGH THERE IS
INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THE RE-CURVE. OVERALL,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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#677 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Sep 07, 2015 11:07 am

At most, Kilo has 48 hours to become a major one final time. After that, Kilo will be crossing 30*N and be at the full mercy of the mid-latitudes as well as be far enough west to be tracking over Atsani's still-gnarly upwelling wake. Until then, heat content is still plenty high and shear won't be an issue due to good outflow. The only issues present until the two day window closes are the internal structural issues that have plagued Kilo ever since it hit the wall of shear while crossing the dateline and the dry air present at these subtropical latitudes that have helped to magnify the structural issues. Right now, there are probably fewer partial eyewall structures existing at various radii from the center than there have been since the dateline encounter, so if one can form a complete ring, we should be in business. Dry air still has a bit of a wrap into the circulation, which can be seen on the latest GPM 85 GHz pass (encircling turquoise band), but the magnitude isn't as great and might be in the process of being mixed out by the current convective bursts in the northern quadrant. I may be going out on a limb a bit here, but do think 100 kt is still attainable and will just barely be met before the window closes. We'll see though, Kilo has proven to be a tough storm to forecast right from the start.

Image

Image

Image

Image

Image
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#678 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Sep 07, 2015 5:04 pm

Of course things would kinda fall apart as soon as a made that statement. :P We'll see though. The window is now more like 40 hours.
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Re: WPAC: KILO - Typhoon

#679 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 08, 2015 4:24 am

WDPN31 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 03C (KILO) WARNING NR 75//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 03C (KILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 289 NM NORTHEAST OF
MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
MAINTAINED ITS OVERALL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AS BANDING REMAINS TIGHT
AROUND AN ILL-DEFINED BUT PRESENT 20 NM EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE EYE IN THE MSI WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN AGREEMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM ALL AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN
AN AREA OF MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VWS OFFSET BY NEAR RADIAL OUTFLOW.
OHC AND SSTS REMAIN FAVORABLE DESPITE THE HIGH LATITUDE. TY 03C IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 03C WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. EXPECT SOME INTENSIFICATION
OF THE SYSTEM AS OHC AND SSTS VALUES REMAIN FAVORABLE AND THERE IS
LOW VWS. AFTERWARDS, TY KILO WILL TURN MORE POLEWARD AS IT ROUNDS
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. CONCURRENTLY, BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO UNDERGO ETT AS IT ENTERS THE COLD BAROCLINIC ZONE.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TY KILO WILL ACCELERATE NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AND COMPLETE ETT. TY 03C WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS A
MAJOR COLD CORE LOW DUE TO LOWER OHC VALES AND HIGH VWS. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING AN OVERALL HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

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euro6208
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Re: WPAC: KILO - Typhoon

#680 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 08, 2015 7:31 am

Disappointed in the models with the majors depicting a major Cat 5 typhoon over the area.

EURO still bottoms this out at 927 mb...
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NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/


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