CPAC: LOKE - Post-Tropical

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Re: CPAC: FOUR-C - Tropical Depression

#21 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 21, 2015 5:19 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP042015
1100 PM HST THU AUG 20 2015

DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR THE APPARENT LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER /LLCC/ OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-C THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME BANDING FEATURES BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN RECENT
INFRARED SATELLITE ANIMATIONS. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
AT 0600Z CAME IN AT T1.5/25KT FROM PHFO...T2.0/30KT FROM JTWC...AND
T2.5/35KT FROM SAB...WHILE THE CIMSS ADT CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE
HAS RECENTLY RISEN TO 2.5/35KT ALSO. FOUR-C APPEARS TO BE ON THE
VERGE OF TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...AND MAY BE THERE ALREADY...BUT
HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM AS A 30 KT DEPRESSION FOR THIS
ADVISORY.

INITIAL MOTION IS ANALYZED AS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 030/04KT. THE
DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
TO AROUND 170W. THE GUIDANCE SUITE REMAINS IN REASONABLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS...INDICATING A SLOW NORTH TO NORTHWEST
MOTION AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE THEN TURNS THE CYCLONE TO THE NORTH
AND EVENTUALLY NORTH-NORTHEAST BEYOND 72 HOURS...WITH AN INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED...AS THE CYCLONE APPARENTLY BECOMES CAUGHT UP IN A
DEEPENING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE. THE
NEW FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...ALTHOUGH
A BIT SLOWER...AND IS ALSO VERY SIMILAR TO THE TVCE TRACK CONSENSUS
THROUGH 48 HOURS...THEN IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AND FASTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS TRACK BEYOND TAU 72. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK FOR 96 HOURS
AND BEYOND IS NOT AS FAST NOR AS FAR TO NORTH AND EAST AS THE
CONSENSUS HOWEVER.

FOUR-C IS MOVING OVER VERY WARM WATERS AND IS WITHIN A LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT AT PRESENT. MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE STRENGTHENS
THE CYCLONE TO A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...AND SO
DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE SHIPS RAPID
INTENSIFICATION INDEX SHOWS A 41 PERCENT CHANCE OF A 25 KT INTENSITY
INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE INITIAL
CONDITIONS AND APPARENT IMPROVING ORGANIZATION...IT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISING IF THE CYCLONE STRENGTHENS MORE QUICKLY THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR
TAU 24 THROUGH TAU 72...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE IVCN CONSENSUS.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST LEVELS OFF AT 50 KT BEYOND 72 HOURS...WHEN
INCREASING WEST/NORTHWEST SHEAR MAY BEGIN TO IMPACT THE CYCLONE
AS IT MOVES INTO HIGHER LATITUDES AND DRAWS CLOSER TO THE
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 15.6N 177.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 15.9N 177.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 16.6N 177.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 17.4N 178.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 18.3N 179.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 24/0600Z 20.1N 179.7E 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 25/0600Z 22.0N 180.0E 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 26/0600Z 25.0N 179.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER JACOBSON/BIRCHARD
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#22 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Aug 21, 2015 8:46 am

Don't know why this wasn't upped to TS.

XPN42 PHFO 211147
TCSNP2

CENTRAL PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1150 UTC FRI AUG 21 2015

A. Tropical depression Four-C.

B. 21/1130Z.

C. 15.9°N.

D. 177.7°W.

E. Goes-15.

F. T2.0/2.0/d1.0/24 hours.

G. Ir/eir.

H. Remarks: Shear pattern with center < than 45 nm from EIR bd dg yields a data t of 2.5. MET and PT are 2.0. Final T based on met.

I. Addl positions none.

$$
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#23 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Aug 21, 2015 9:56 am

WTPA22 PHFO 211435
TCMCP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-C FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP042015
1500 UTC FRI AUG 21 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 177.2W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 177.2W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 177.2W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 16.4N 177.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 17.2N 178.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 18.1N 179.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 19.2N 179.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 21.3N 179.7E
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 23.5N 179.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 27.0N 178.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 177.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER JACOBSON/BIRCHARD
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#24 Postby Extratropical94 » Fri Aug 21, 2015 3:51 pm

With 04C named Loke, 2015 now holds the record for the most named storms in the CPAC (5).
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#25 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Aug 21, 2015 3:58 pm

5 named CPAC storms and it is only August. This basin sure is on fire this year!

It looks to straddle 180...so JMA and CPHC need to have close coordination since they are likely to have to hand it off - and right back.
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#26 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Aug 21, 2015 4:01 pm

WTPA22 PHFO 212045
TCMCP2

TROPICAL STORM LOKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP042015
2100 UTC FRI AUG 21 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 177.2W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 177.2W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 177.1W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 17.1N 177.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 17.9N 178.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 50NE 35SE 35SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 18.8N 179.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 50NE 35SE 35SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 19.9N 179.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 23.3N 179.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 26.4N 177.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 29.6N 175.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 177.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER POWELL
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#27 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Aug 21, 2015 4:25 pm

WTPA42 PHFO 212102
TCDCP2

TROPICAL STORM LOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP042015
1100 AM HST FRI AUG 21 2015

FOUR-C ORGANIZATION HAS IMPROVED RAPIDLY THIS MORNING...MOST
NOTICEABLY SINCE THE 1800Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS CYCLE. AS A
RESULT...FOUR-C IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM LOKE. OBJECTIVE DVORAK
SATELLITE ANALYSIS INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGED FROM 2.0...30
KT...FROM PHFO AND JTWC...TO 2.5...35 KT...FROM SAB.
HOWEVER...SATELLITE DEVELOPMENTS SINCE THESE VALUES WERE DERIVED
SHOW THEY ARE LIKELY UNREPRESENTATIVE NOW...WITH DEEP CONVECTION
WRAPPING AROUND ALL BUT THE SOUTH QUADRANT AND A WELL DEFINED LLCC
LIKELY LOCATED AT THE NORTHERN TIP OF THE CONVECTION-FREE SLOT AS
OF 2000Z. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT...HIGHER THAN 1800Z
DVORAK BUT POSSIBLY STILL UNDERESTIMATING SYSTEM STRENGTH BASED ON
PRESENTATION ALONE. LOKE INTENSITY MAY HAVE TO BE BUMPED UP
NOTICEABLY FOR THE NEXT FORECAST CYCLE.

INITIAL MOTION IS ALMOST DUE NORTH...OR 355/05 KT. THE LLCC WHICH
HAS BECOME APPARENT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAS INCREASED CONFIDENCE
IN THIS MOTION. TIMELY MICROWAVE IMAGERY EARLIER THIS MORNING
FURTHER INCREASED POSITION CONFIDENCE. LOKE IS MOVING SLOWLY ALONG
THE WESTERN FLANK OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
THROUGH 48 HOURS...INDICATING A RATHER SLOW MOTION GRADUALLY BENDING
TO THE NORTHWEST...AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE THEN TURNS THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE TO THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY NORTH-NORTHEAST BEYOND 72
HOURS...WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...AS THE CYCLONE INTERACTS
WITH A DEEPENING MID LATITUDE TROUGH ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL DATE
LINE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK
THROUGH 48 HOURS...THEN IS ALTERED A BIT TO THE RIGHT AT TAU 72...96
AND 120 TO MORE CLOSELY FOLLOW TRACK CONSENSUS. THE FORECAST TRACK
KEEPS LOKE WITHIN THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BARELY.

LOKE IS MOVING OVER VERY WARM WATERS...IN EXCESS OF 28C... AND IS
WITHIN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS NOT
CHANGED MUCH SINCE THE LAST CYCLE...WITH GFS STILL WANTING TO
DISSIPATE THIS SYSTEM BY 96 HOURS. FOLLOWING THE TREND FROM THE LAST
FORECAST CYCLE...WE WILL BRING LOKE TO PEAK STRENGTH OF 55 KT IN 48
HOURS...WITH SLOW WEAKENING DEPICTED AFTERWARDS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 16.4N 177.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 17.1N 177.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 17.9N 178.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 18.8N 179.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 19.9N 179.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 24/1800Z 23.3N 179.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 25/1800Z 26.4N 177.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 26/1800Z 29.6N 175.8W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER POWELL
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#28 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Aug 21, 2015 9:43 pm

WTPA42 PHFO 220231
TCDCP2

TROPICAL STORM LOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP042015
500 PM HST FRI AUG 21 2015

THE SATELLITE REPRESENTATION OF LOKE HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. OBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE ANALYSIS INTENSITY
ESTIMATES WERE 2.5 FROM PHFO...SAB AND JTWC. THUS WE HAVE KEPT THE
INTENSITY AT 40 KT WITH THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE.

LOKE PRESENTLY LIES BETWEEN A MID LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS EAST AND A MID
LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST RESULTING IN A GENERAL NORTHWARD
MOTION BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES. TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS RATHER
CLUSTERED WITH A NORTH TO NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS
WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST BEYOND 48 HOURS AS LOKE
BEGINS TO FEEL A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE LAST
ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS CLOSELY DOWN THE MIDDLE OF MOST MODEL GUIDANCE.

WIND SHEAR ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 6 KT FROM UW-CIMSS AND UP TO 8 KT
FROM SHIPS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THEY WILL REMAIN NEAR THESE
LEVELS THROUGH ABOUT 72 HOURS. SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES A BIT OF AN
INCREASE BEYOND 72 HOURS. SST VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 28C THROUGH
DAY 4 WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS ALONG ITS PATH AROUND DAY 5 AS
LOKE GAINS LATITUDE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS CHANGED LITTLE
SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY PACKAGE WITH THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PEAK IN
STRENGTH AT ABOUT 55 KT ON DAYS 3 AND 4 WITH SOME WEAKENING ON DAY 5
DUE TO COOLER SST VALUES AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHEAR.

INTERESTS IN THE WESTERN PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LOKE THIS WEEKEND AND ON INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 16.7N 177.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 17.4N 177.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 18.4N 178.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 19.6N 179.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 21.1N 179.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 24.0N 178.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 26/0000Z 27.1N 176.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 27/0000Z 30.7N 175.6W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BURKE
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Re: CPAC: LOKE - Tropical Storm

#29 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Aug 22, 2015 12:33 am

Image

18z GFDL
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#30 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Aug 22, 2015 10:00 am

Dry air likely limiting surface mixing.

WTPA42 PHFO 221453
TCDCP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP042015
500 AM HST SAT AUG 22 2015

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF LOKE HAS DETERIORATED DURING
THE NIGHT...WITH ONLY INTERMITTENT SMALL BURSTS OF DEEP
CONVECTION ABOUT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER /LLCC/.
DVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS RANGED FROM T1.0/25KT TO T2.0/30KT...
AND A WELL-PLACED 0930Z SCATTEROMETER PASS SAMPLED MAXIMUM
WINDS OF ONLY 25 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. ON THIS BASIS...
LOKE IS DOWNGRADED TO A 30 KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH THIS
ADVISORY.

A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES AND THE SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATE
THAT LOKE HAS NOW TURNED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AS EXPECTED...
AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/05 KT. THERE IS NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY. A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST
SHOULD DRIVE A RATHER SLOW GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWEST MOTION DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS SHOWN BY THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED MODEL
GUIDANCE. LOKE SHOULD TURN TO THE NORTH AND ROUND THE WESTERN END OF
THE RIDGE BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 48...AND THEREAFTER MOVE MORE
QUICKLY TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS IT COMES UNDER INCREASING
INFLUENCE FROM A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WHICH IS FORECAST TO
DEEPEN ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK DURING
THE FIRST 48 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE WESTERLY INITIAL
POSITION...BUT FOLLOWS A VERY SIMILAR TRAJECTORY TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE TVCN MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS TRACK
CONTINUES TO KEEP LOKE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL DATE
LINE. LOKE IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST FROM TAU
72 THROUGH 96...THEN SWING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST BY TAU 120...AS THE
MODEL SUITE REMAINS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CYCLONE WILL
BECOME CAPTURED WITHIN THE MUCH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CIRCULATION
ASSOCIATED WITH BY THEN FORMER WEST PACIFIC TYPHOON ATSANI.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. DESPITE VERY LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...WITH THE LATEST CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATING
A SHEAR MAGNITUDE OF ONLY 3 KT...AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH AMPLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT...LOKE HAS WEAKENED RATHER THAN
INTENSIFIED. THE OUTFLOW DOES APPEAR TO BE RESTRICTED TO THE
NORTHWEST...AND THERE ARE CONTINUED INDICATIONS THAT DRY MID-LEVEL
AIR NORTH AND WEST OF THE CYCLONE IS WRAPPING INTO THE CIRCULATION.
THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW THE SHIPS GUIDANCE
THROUGH 72 HOURS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE NEXT
36 HOURS AND SOME SLOW INTENSIFICATION THEREAFTER. UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES BEYOND TAU 72...WHEN THE CYCLONE MAY BE IMPACTED BY
INCREASING WESTERLY WIND SHEAR AND WILL ALSO BE MOVING ACROSS COOLER
WATERS. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE ACTUALLY STRENGTHENS THE SYSTEM AT THE
LATER FORECAST TIMES DESPITE THESE FACTORS...BUT THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WILL HOLD LOKE AS A 45 KNOT TROPICAL STORM FOR DAYS 4 AND 5.

INTERESTS IN THE WESTERN PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LOKE DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 17.4N 177.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 18.3N 178.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 19.8N 179.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 21.3N 179.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 22.8N 178.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 26.0N 176.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 26/1200Z 30.5N 175.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 27/1200Z 35.0N 178.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER JACOBSON/HOUSTON
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#31 Postby galaxy401 » Sat Aug 22, 2015 10:10 am

Even though a record number of storms are forming in the CPAC, it seems like conditions are still rather unfavorable over there since most of them struggle to organize.
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I don't get hurricanes here but I do get their remnants.

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#32 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Aug 22, 2015 12:12 pm

galaxy401 wrote:Even though a record number of storms are forming in the CPAC, it seems like conditions are still rather unfavorable over there since most of them struggle to organize.


Hilda was a Cat 4 in near 145W. They aren't that conducive, just more so than usual.
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#33 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Aug 22, 2015 3:57 pm

WTPA42 PHFO 222047
TCDCP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP042015
1100 AM HST SAT AUG 22 2015

DEEP CONVECTION NEAR LOKE BECAME DISORGANIZED LAST NIGHT BUT RECENT
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED THAT A NEW CURVED BAND OF CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED IN ITS WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE RECENT BAND DEVELOPMENT
SUGGESTS THAT THE WEAKENING TREND HAS ENDED FOR NOW AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY FOR THIS PACKAGE WILL BE HELD AT 30 KT. THIS IS CONSISTENT
WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PHFO AND SAB. THE JTWC ESTIMATE
CAME IN AT 35 KT BUT WAS HELD UP DUE TO DVORAK CONSTRAINTS.

LOKE IS ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING AT 325/7 KT BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A WEAK MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST.
THE STEERING CURRENT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MODEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. THE LATEST SUITE OF
OBJECTIVE AIDS IS TIGHTLY GROUPED...SHOWING A CONTINUED NORTHWEST
TO NORTH-NORTHWEST MOVEMENT FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST. BEYOND 96 HOURS...THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
THAT LOKE SHOULD TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND BECOME CAPTURED
WITHIN THE MUCH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FORMER SUPER TYPHOON ATSANI. THUS...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND THEN IS A
LITTLE FASTER AT THE LATER TIME PERIODS TO LINE UP CLOSER TO THE
DYNAMIC CONSENSUS.

THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND LOKE APPEARS TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
INTENSIFICATION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE NEARLY 29C AND
VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS WEAK AT AROUND 4 KT BASED ON THE 1800 UTC
CIMSS ANALYSIS. THE MAIN POSSIBLE NEGATIVE FACTOR IS AN AREA OF
DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR THAT THE CYCLONE MAY BE INGESTING FROM THE NORTH
AND WEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. THIS DRIER AIRMASS MAY CONTINUE
TO AFFECT LOKE OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 DAYS. AS A RESULT...THE
FORECAST KEEPS LOKE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THEN STRENGTHENS IT TO A TROPICAL STORM AROUND 36 HOURS.
THIS IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND SHIPS THROUGH 48
HOURS...BUT BELOW SHIPS AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AFTER 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE WESTERN PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LOKE DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 18.1N 178.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 19.1N 179.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 20.6N 179.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 22.4N 179.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 24.3N 178.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 28.6N 175.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 26/1800Z 33.0N 177.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 27/1800Z 37.0N 180.0E 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER KODAMA
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#34 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Aug 22, 2015 9:49 pm

WTPA42 PHFO 230241
TCDCP2

TROPICAL STORM LOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP042015
500 PM HST SAT AUG 22 2015

LOKE HAS BEEN MAINTAINING DEEP CONVECTION NEAR ITS CENTER SINCE
THIS MORNING AND A WELL-TIMED ASCAT PASS SHOWED SEVERAL 35 KT WIND
BARBS IN ITS NORTHEAST QUADRANT. AS A RESULT...LOKE WILL BE
REINSTATED AS A TROPICAL STORM WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT
FOR THIS PACKAGE.

THE INITIAL MOTION OF LOKE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 345/8 KT AS IT MOVES
BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A WEAK MID- TO UPPER LEVEL
LOW TO THE WEST. THE FORECAST RATIONALE FOR THIS PACKAGE REMAINS
GENERALLY THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND KEEPS THE CYCLONE ON
A NORTH-NORTHWEST PATH FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST. THIS FORECAST TRACK IS IN THE MIDDLE OF A TIGHT
GROUPING OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. AFTER ABOUT 96 HOURS...THE
ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE THAT LOKE SHOULD TURN BACK TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST AND BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN THE MUCH LARGER
EXTRATROPICAL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER SUPER TYPHOON
ATSANI.

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE NEARLY 29C AND VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS
WEAK AROUND 5 KT BASED ON THE 0000 UTC CIMSS ANALYSIS. WATER
VAPOR AND MIMIC TPW SHOW DRIER AIR WRAPPING INTO THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE/S CIRCULATION FROM THE NORTH AND WEST...WHICH MAY SLOW
THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS DESPITE THE WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. GLOBAL MODELS AND SHIPS INDICATE THAT THIS DRIER AIR
MAY CONTINUE TO AFFECT LOKE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THUS...THE
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW INTENSIFICATION WITH LOKE PEAKING AT
50 KT BY 72 HOURS BEFORE BEING ABSORBED BY FORMER SUPER TYPHOON
ATSANI. THIS IS A BIT BELOW SHIPS BUT CLOSE TO HWRF.

INTERESTS IN THE WESTERN PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LOKE DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.




FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 18.8N 179.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 19.8N 179.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 21.5N 179.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 23.3N 178.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 25.4N 176.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 30.5N 175.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 27/0000Z 35.5N 179.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 28/0000Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
FORECASTER KODAMA
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Re: CPAC: LOKE - Tropical Storm

#35 Postby euro6208 » Sun Aug 23, 2015 5:32 am

Kinda late but surprised the models no longer bring this into the WPAC :lol:
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http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

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#36 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 23, 2015 4:47 pm

WTPA42 PHFO 232104
TCDCP2

TROPICAL STORM LOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP042015
1100 AM HST SUN AUG 23 2015

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT LOKE HAS STARTED TO ONCE AGAIN BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED AFTER DEEP CONVECTION BRIEFLY FADED OUT EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE CENTER IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH
AN IMPROVED OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES CAME IN AT 35 KT FROM PHFO AND SAB...AND 30 KT FROM JTWC.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 35 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE BASED
ON THE PHFO AND SAB ESTIMATES.

THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS 010/10 KT. THE MAIN
FEATURE GUIDING THE STEERING OF THE SYSTEM IS A MIDLATITUDE CUTOFF
LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE AREA NORTHWEST OF LOKE. THIS
WILL IMPART A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST AS THE CUTOFF LOW SHIFTS TO THE EAST. OBJECTIVE AIDS ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS PICTURE WITH THE GFS TRACK ON THE
RIGHT END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE NAVGEM...AND THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...ON THE LEFT END. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED EAST TO ALIGN THE FORECAST TRACK CLOSER TO THE DYNAMIC
MODEL CONSENSUS. BEYOND 72 HOURS...LOKE IS EXPECTED TO GO THROUGH
AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND EVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED BY THE LARGE
EXTRATROPICAL LOW OF FORMER SUPER TYPHOON ATSANI. THE FORECAST TRACK
BRINGS LOKE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE
NATIONAL MONUMENT DURING THE NEXT 1 TO 2 DAYS.

LOKE IS MOVING OVER VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...NEAR
29C...AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WATERS WITH TEMPERATURES AT
LEAST 28C THROUGH 36 HOURS. LOKE STILL HAS A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER PRIOR TO BECOMING AFFECTED BY THE
EXTRATROPICAL LOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE FORECAST
REMAINS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND BRINGS LOKE TO A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KT BEFORE WEAKENING. THIS IS CLOSE TO THE IVCN
CONSENSUS AND IS SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW SHIPS GUIDANCE.

NOTE THAT IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS TOO CLOSELY ON THE EXACT
FORECAST TRACK OF LOKE. WITH AN AVERAGE 48 HOUR TRACK ERROR OF ABOUT
90 MILES...IT IS STILL TOO SOON TO SAY WITH ANY CERTAINTY WHICH
ISLANDS AND ATOLLS WILL EXPERIENCE THE WORST CONDITIONS. IT IS ALSO
IMPORTANT TO KEEP IN MIND THAT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL
CYCLONES CAN EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 21.8N 179.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 23.2N 178.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 24.9N 177.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 26.8N 175.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 29.2N 174.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 34.5N 177.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 41.5N 176.0E 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 28/1800Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW
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Re: CPAC: LOKE - Tropical Storm

#37 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 23, 2015 4:51 pm

Image

This is not 35 knts and to put it bluntly, honestly is an outrageous estimate. This along with Genevieve last year IMO shows that the CPHC relies on Dvorak too much. IMO this is 55-60 knts.
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#38 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 23, 2015 5:03 pm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 AUG 2015 Time : 210000 UTC
Lat : 21:47:59 N Lon : 179:30:00 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 991.8mb/ 53.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.2 3.6 4.0

Center Temp : -68.9C Cloud Region Temp : -66.5C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
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#39 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sun Aug 23, 2015 6:03 pm

Yeah, this is in no way a 35kt cyclone given its microwave presentation. I'm hoping ASCAT hits the storm later tonight; even then, the true strength of Loke could be underestimated given its small stature. I would go 55kt.
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#40 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 23, 2015 8:00 pm

Still no.

WTPA32 PHFO 240001
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP042015
200 PM HST SUN AUG 23 2015

...LOKE STRENGTHENING AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM HST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 179.5W
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM SSW OF MIDWAY ISLAND
ABOUT 750 MI...1210 KM WNW OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...80 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
PEARL AND HERMES ATOLL TO LISIANSKI ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MIDWAY ISLAND

* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
LISIANSKI ISLAND TO MARO REEF.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL
MONUMENT SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LOKE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM HST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOKE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 179.5 WEST. LOKE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...THEN TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH SOME
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...80 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 55 MILES...100 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT STARTING
LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

SURF...A LARGE EXISTING WESTERLY SWELL COMBINED WITH SOUTH SWELL
ARRIVING FROM LOKE WILL CAUSE ROUGH SURF ACROSS SOUTH AND WEST
FACING REEFS AND SHORELINES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH LOKE MAY REACH THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT
STARTING MONDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER KODAMA
Last edited by Yellow Evan on Sun Aug 23, 2015 9:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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