CPAC: LOKE - Post-Tropical

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galaxy401
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#41 Postby galaxy401 » Sun Aug 23, 2015 8:03 pm

^ That's Kilo not Loke.
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I don't get hurricanes here but I do get their remnants.

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#42 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 23, 2015 9:56 pm

You know you're in the active era when there's a hurricane warning for the PMNM.

WTPA32 PHFO 240246
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOKE ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP042015
500 PM HST SUN AUG 23 2015

...LOKE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.8N 179.1W
ABOUT 390 MI...625 KM SSW OF MIDWAY ISLAND
ABOUT 1260 MI...2025 KM W OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM PEARL AND HERMES
ATOLL TO LISIANSKI ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MIDWAY ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM LISIANSKI ISLAND
TO MARO REEF.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
PEARL AND HERMES ATOLL TO LISIANSKI ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MIDWAY ISLAND

* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
LISIANSKI ISLAND TO MARO REEF.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL
MONUMENT SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LOKE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOKE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 179.1 WEST. LOKE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH ON
TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE OUTER WINDS OF LOKE MAY REACH
THE WARNED AREAS WITHIN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL
MONUMENT LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WITH LOKE REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF
THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM PEARL AND
HERMES ATOLL TO LISIANSKI ISLAND LATE MONDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER MIDWAY ISLAND AND FROM LISIANSKI
ISLAND TO MARO REEF LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

SURF...A LARGE EXISTING WESTERLY SWELL COMBINED WITH SOUTH SWELL
ARRIVING FROM LOKE WILL CAUSE ROUGH SURF ACROSS SOUTH AND WEST
FACING REEFS AND SHORELINES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER PEARL AND HERMES
ATOLL AND LISIANSKI ISLAND STARTING MONDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER KODAMAWTPA32 PHFO 240246
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOKE ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP042015
500 PM HST SUN AUG 23 2015

...LOKE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.8N 179.1W
ABOUT 390 MI...625 KM SSW OF MIDWAY ISLAND
ABOUT 1260 MI...2025 KM W OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM PEARL AND HERMES
ATOLL TO LISIANSKI ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MIDWAY ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM LISIANSKI ISLAND
TO MARO REEF.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
PEARL AND HERMES ATOLL TO LISIANSKI ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MIDWAY ISLAND

* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
LISIANSKI ISLAND TO MARO REEF.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL
MONUMENT SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LOKE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOKE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 179.1 WEST. LOKE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH ON
TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE OUTER WINDS OF LOKE MAY REACH
THE WARNED AREAS WITHIN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL
MONUMENT LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WITH LOKE REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF
THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM PEARL AND
HERMES ATOLL TO LISIANSKI ISLAND LATE MONDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER MIDWAY ISLAND AND FROM LISIANSKI
ISLAND TO MARO REEF LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

SURF...A LARGE EXISTING WESTERLY SWELL COMBINED WITH SOUTH SWELL
ARRIVING FROM LOKE WILL CAUSE ROUGH SURF ACROSS SOUTH AND WEST
FACING REEFS AND SHORELINES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER PEARL AND HERMES
ATOLL AND LISIANSKI ISLAND STARTING MONDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER KODAMA
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#43 Postby supercane » Sun Aug 23, 2015 9:57 pm

250
WTPA32 PHFO 240246
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOKE ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP042015
500 PM HST SUN AUG 23 2015

...LOKE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...
..HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED



SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.8N 179.1W
ABOUT 390 MI...625 KM SSW OF MIDWAY ISLAND
ABOUT 1260 MI...2025 KM W OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM PEARL AND HERMES
ATOLL TO LISIANSKI ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MIDWAY ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM LISIANSKI ISLAND
TO MARO REEF.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
PEARL AND HERMES ATOLL TO LISIANSKI ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MIDWAY ISLAND

* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
LISIANSKI ISLAND TO MARO REEF.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL
MONUMENT SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LOKE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOKE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 179.1 WEST. LOKE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH ON
TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE OUTER WINDS OF LOKE MAY REACH
THE WARNED AREAS WITHIN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL
MONUMENT LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WITH LOKE REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF
THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM PEARL AND
HERMES ATOLL TO LISIANSKI ISLAND LATE MONDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER MIDWAY ISLAND AND FROM LISIANSKI
ISLAND TO MARO REEF LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

SURF...A LARGE EXISTING WESTERLY SWELL COMBINED WITH SOUTH SWELL
ARRIVING FROM LOKE WILL CAUSE ROUGH SURF ACROSS SOUTH AND WEST
FACING REEFS AND SHORELINES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER PEARL AND HERMES
ATOLL AND LISIANSKI ISLAND STARTING MONDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM HST.


FORECASTER KODAMA
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Yellow Evan
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#44 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 23, 2015 10:12 pm

WTPA42 PHFO 240302
TCDCP2

TROPICAL STORM LOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP042015
500 PM HST SUN AUG 23 2015

LOKE HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED THROUGH THE DAY WITH
PERSISTENT DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION AND AN IMPROVED RAINBAND
STRUCTURE. THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS ALSO IMPROVED IN THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF ITS CIRCULATION. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES CAME IN AT 35 KT FROM PHFO AND JTWC...AND 45 KT FROM SAB.
THE UW/CIMSS ADT ANALYSIS AT 0000 UTC WAS 57 KT. USING A BLEND OF
THESE ESTIMATES AND THE IMPROVED PRESENTATION IN THE SATELLITE
IMAGES SINCE THIS MORNING...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE 45 KT FOR
THIS PACKAGE.

LOKE IS MOVING OVER VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...NEAR
29C...AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WATERS WITH TEMPERATURES AT
LEAST 28C THROUGH 24 HOURS. WATER VAPOR IMAGES AND MIMIC TPW DATA
SHOW THAT THE AREA OF DRIER AIR THAT MAY HAVE BEEN HINDERING LOKE/S
DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN REPLACED BY MOISTER AIR. WHILE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS INCREASING ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...THE MOISTER AIRMASS
AND THE MORE THAN ADEQUATE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALLOW
FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION WITH LOKE NOW FORECAST TO BECOME A
MINIMAL HURRICANE IN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THIS IS A BIT BELOW
THE IVCN CONSENSUS BUT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE HWRF.

IT APPEARS THAT LOKE HAS STARTED TO MAKE ITS TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AND THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS PACKAGE IS 020/11 KT. THE
MAIN FEATURE GUIDING THE STEERING OF THE SYSTEM IS A MIDLATITUDE
CUTOFF LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE AREA NORTHWEST OF LOKE.
THIS WILL IMPART A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN
TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE CUTOFF LOW SHIFTS TO THE EAST. OBJECTIVE
AIDS ARE STILL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS PICTURE WITH THE GFS
TRACK ON THE RIGHT END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE NAVGEM ON
THE LEFT END. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS ONCE AGAIN BEEN ADJUSTED EAST
TO ALIGN THE FORECAST TRACK CLOSER TO THE DYNAMIC MODEL CONSENSUS.
BEYOND 72 HOURS...LOKE IS EXPECTED TO GO THROUGH AN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION AND EVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED BY THE LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW
OF FORMER SUPER TYPHOON ATSANI. THE FORECAST TRACK BRINGS LOKE
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL
MONUMENT DURING THE NEXT 1 TO 2 DAYS. THIS HAS NECESSITATED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE AREA FROM PEARL AND HERMES REEF TO
LISIANSKI ISLAND...AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR MIDWAY ISLAND
AND THE AREA FROM LISIANSKI ISLAND TO MARO REEF.

NOTE THAT IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS TOO CLOSELY ON THE EXACT
FORECAST TRACK OF LOKE. WITH AN AVERAGE 48 HOUR TRACK ERROR OF ABOUT
90 MILES...AND AN AVERAGE 36 HOUR ERROR OF 65 MILES...IT IS STILL
TOO SOON TO SAY WITH ANY CERTAINTY WHICH ISLANDS AND ATOLLS WILL
EXPERIENCE THE WORST CONDITIONS. IT IS ALSO IMPORTANT TO KEEP IN
MIND THAT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL CYCLONES CAN EXTEND WELL
AWAY FROM THE CENTER.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 22.8N 179.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 24.1N 178.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 26.0N 176.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 28.2N 175.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 30.8N 175.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 27/0000Z 36.1N 179.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 28/0000Z 44.0N 173.0E 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 29/0000Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
FORECASTER KODAMA
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#45 Postby Extratropical94 » Mon Aug 24, 2015 6:32 am

TROPICAL STORM LOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP042015
1100 PM HST SUN AUG 23 2015

LOKE HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING...
WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION AND GOOD OUTFLOW TO
THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CIRCULATION. DVORAK SUBJECTIVE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES CAME IN AT T3.0/45KT FROM HFO/SAB...AND
T2.5/35KT FROM JTWC. THE UW-CIMSS ADT INTENSITY ESTIMATE HAS
INCREASED TO 67 KT. BASED ON A BLEND OF THE ABOVE ESTIMATES...AND
WITH THE CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT IN SATELLITE PRESENTATION...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES AND TIGHTLY CLUSTERED 0600 UTC
DVORAK CENTER FIXES ADD CONFIDENCE TO AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF
030/11. THE PRIMARY FACTOR CONTROLLING THE STEERING OF LOKE DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE A LARGE MID-LATITUDE CUTOFF LOW WHICH IS
FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO DROP SOUTHWARD TO THE WEST OF
LOKE...THEN LINGER JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF MIDWAY. OBJECTIVE
TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE NEXT 48
HOURS...WITH LOKE ROTATING AROUND THE CUTOFF LOW DURING THIS TIME.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A NORTHEAST MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTH THEN NORTHWEST. THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE ONCE AGAIN SHIFTED
SOMEWHAT TO THE RIGHT THIS CYCLE AT TAU 24 THROUGH 48...AND THE
NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WAS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT AS WELL TO
BE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THE TVCN TRACK CONSENSUS. LOKE IS THEN
FORECAST TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHWEST BEYOND 48 HOURS...AS
IT CONTINUES ROTATING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CUTOFF LOW NEAR
MIDWAY. BEYOND 72 HOURS...LOKE IS FORECAST TO GO THROUGH AN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...AND EVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED BY THE LARGE
EXTRATROPICAL LOW OF FORMER SUPER TYPHOON ATSANI.

LOKE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF
28-29C FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WATER VAPOR IMAGES AND MIMIC TPW DATA
SHOW THAT THE AREA OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR THAT MAY HAVE PREVIOUSLY
BEEN HINDERING LOKE/S DEVELOPMENT HAS DIMINISHED. WHILE WESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS INCREASING AS THE CYCLONE MOVES FURTHER
POLEWARD...THE INCREASING NORTHEAST MOTION OF THE STORM SEEMS TO BE
SUFFICIENT TO COUNTERACT THIS...AT LEAST FOR NOW. THE NEW INTENSITY
FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE IVCN CONSENSUS AND BRINGS LOKE TO
HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 24 HOURS. A WEAKENING TREND SHOULD BEGIN
AFTER 48 HOURS...AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST
TRACK DROP BELOW 27C.

NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE EXISTING HURRICANE AND TROPICAL
STORM WARNINGS FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE
NATIONAL MONUMENT WITH THIS ADVISORY. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR PEARL AND HERMES REEF TO LISIANSKI ISLAND...WITH
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR MIDWAY ISLAND AND FROM LISIANSKI ISLAND
TO MARO REEF. NOTE THAT IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS TOO CLOSELY ON
THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK OF LOKE. WITH AN AVERAGE 24 HOUR TRACK
ERROR OF 60 MILES...AND AN AVERAGE 36 HOUR ERROR OF 80 MILES...IT
IS STILL TOO SOON TO SAY WITH ANY CERTAINTY WHICH ISLANDS AND ATOLLS
WILL EXPERIENCE THE WORST CONDITIONS. IT IS ALSO IMPORTANT TO KEEP
IN MIND THAT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL CYCLONES CAN EXTEND
WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 23.9N 178.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 25.3N 177.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 27.5N 175.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 30.2N 174.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 33.0N 175.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 40.0N 177.0E 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 28/0600Z 50.0N 170.0E 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 29/0600Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOKE ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP042015
1100 PM HST SUN AUG 23 2015

...LOKE INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.9N 178.5W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SSW OF MIDWAY ISLAND
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM WSW OF LISIANSKI ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
PEARL AND HERMES ATOLL TO LISIANSKI ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MIDWAY ISLAND

* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
LISIANSKI ISLAND TO MARO REEF.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL
MONUMENT SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LOKE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOKE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 178.5 WEST. LOKE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A
NORTHEAST MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH ON
TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE OUTER WINDS OF LOKE MAY REACH
THE WARNED AREAS WITHIN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL
MONUMENT MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE CORE OF LOKE PASSING THROUGH
THE WARNED AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
WITH LOKE FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE MONDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF
THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM PEARL AND
HERMES ATOLL TO LISIANSKI ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER MIDWAY ISLAND AND FROM LISIANSKI
ISLAND TO MARO REEF MONDAY NIGHT.

SURF...A LARGE EXISTING WESTERLY SWELL COMBINED WITH SOUTH SWELL
ARRIVING FROM LOKE WILL CAUSE ROUGH SURF ACROSS SOUTH AND WEST
FACING REEFS AND SHORELINES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LARGE WAVES MAY OVERWASH LOW-LYING PORTIONS OF THE
ISLANDS AND ATOLLS DURING THIS TIME.

RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER PEARL AND HERMES
ATOLL AND LISIANSKI ISLAND STARTING MONDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM HST.
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#46 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 24, 2015 7:18 am

From Kilo thread:

Image

If this is not a hurricane or at least a 60 knot TS, what is?
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#47 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 24, 2015 7:18 am

WTPA42 PHFO 240911
TCDCP2

TROPICAL STORM LOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP042015
1100 PM HST SUN AUG 23 2015

LOKE HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING...
WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION AND GOOD OUTFLOW TO
THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CIRCULATION. DVORAK SUBJECTIVE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES CAME IN AT T3.0/45KT FROM HFO/SAB...AND
T2.5/35KT FROM JTWC. THE UW-CIMSS ADT INTENSITY ESTIMATE HAS
INCREASED TO 67 KT. BASED ON A BLEND OF THE ABOVE ESTIMATES...AND
WITH THE CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT IN SATELLITE PRESENTATION...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES AND TIGHTLY CLUSTERED 0600 UTC
DVORAK CENTER FIXES ADD CONFIDENCE TO AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF
030/11. THE PRIMARY FACTOR CONTROLLING THE STEERING OF LOKE DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE A LARGE MID-LATITUDE CUTOFF LOW WHICH IS
FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO DROP SOUTHWARD TO THE WEST OF
LOKE...THEN LINGER JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF MIDWAY. OBJECTIVE
TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE NEXT 48
HOURS...WITH LOKE ROTATING AROUND THE CUTOFF LOW DURING THIS TIME.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A NORTHEAST MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTH THEN NORTHWEST. THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE ONCE AGAIN SHIFTED
SOMEWHAT TO THE RIGHT THIS CYCLE AT TAU 24 THROUGH 48...AND THE
NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WAS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT AS WELL TO
BE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THE TVCN TRACK CONSENSUS. LOKE IS THEN
FORECAST TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHWEST BEYOND 48 HOURS...AS
IT CONTINUES ROTATING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CUTOFF LOW NEAR
MIDWAY. BEYOND 72 HOURS...LOKE IS FORECAST TO GO THROUGH AN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...AND EVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED BY THE LARGE
EXTRATROPICAL LOW OF FORMER SUPER TYPHOON ATSANI.

LOKE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF
28-29C FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WATER VAPOR IMAGES AND MIMIC TPW DATA
SHOW THAT THE AREA OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR THAT MAY HAVE PREVIOUSLY
BEEN HINDERING LOKE/S DEVELOPMENT HAS DIMINISHED. WHILE WESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS INCREASING AS THE CYCLONE MOVES FURTHER
POLEWARD...THE INCREASING NORTHEAST MOTION OF THE STORM SEEMS TO BE
SUFFICIENT TO COUNTERACT THIS...AT LEAST FOR NOW. THE NEW INTENSITY
FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE IVCN CONSENSUS AND BRINGS LOKE TO
HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 24 HOURS. A WEAKENING TREND SHOULD BEGIN
AFTER 48 HOURS...AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST
TRACK DROP BELOW 27C.

NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE EXISTING HURRICANE AND TROPICAL
STORM WARNINGS FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE
NATIONAL MONUMENT WITH THIS ADVISORY. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR PEARL AND HERMES REEF TO LISIANSKI ISLAND...WITH
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR MIDWAY ISLAND AND FROM LISIANSKI ISLAND
TO MARO REEF. NOTE THAT IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS TOO CLOSELY ON
THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK OF LOKE. WITH AN AVERAGE 24 HOUR TRACK
ERROR OF 60 MILES...AND AN AVERAGE 36 HOUR ERROR OF 80 MILES...IT
IS STILL TOO SOON TO SAY WITH ANY CERTAINTY WHICH ISLANDS AND ATOLLS
WILL EXPERIENCE THE WORST CONDITIONS. IT IS ALSO IMPORTANT TO KEEP
IN MIND THAT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL CYCLONES CAN EXTEND
WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 23.9N 178.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 25.3N 177.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 27.5N 175.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 30.2N 174.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 33.0N 175.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 40.0N 177.0E 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 28/0600Z 50.0N 170.0E 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 29/0600Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
FORECASTER JACOBSON/TANABE
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#48 Postby Extratropical94 » Mon Aug 24, 2015 7:18 am

TROPICAL STORM LOKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP042015
200 AM HST MON AUG 24 2015

...LOKE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM HST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 178.0W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM S OF MIDWAY ISLAND
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM WSW OF LISIANSKI ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...105 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES
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Re: CPAC: LOKE - Tropical Storm

#49 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 24, 2015 10:20 am

TROPICAL STORM LOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP042015
500 AM HST MON AUG 24 2015

LOKE HAS MAINTAINED A RATHER WELL DEFINED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
DURING THE NIGHT...WITH A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES ALONG WITH A
0851 UTC ASCAT PASS CONFIRMING THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER IS REMAINING FIRMLY UNDERNEATH THE DEEP CONVECTION.
DVORAK SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES CAME IN AT T3.5/55KT FROM
HFO...AND T3.0/45KT FROM SAB/JTWC. THE UW-CIMSS ADT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 67 KT...AND THE RECENT ASCAT PASS RETRIEVED
A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF 50-55 KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OF LOKE. BASED ON A BLEND OF THE ABOVE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS INCREASED TO 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 035/13. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. THE PRIMARY FACTOR
CONTROLLING THE STEERING OF LOKE DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS WILL BE A
LARGE MID-LATITUDE CUTOFF LOW WHICH IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS TO DROP SOUTHWARD TO THE WEST OF LOKE...THEN LINGER JUST TO
THE WEST OF MIDWAY. OBJECTIVE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY GOOD
AGREEMENT...WITH LOKE ROTATING AROUND THE CUTOFF LOW DURING THIS
TIME. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED NORTHEAST MOTION WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED TODAY AND TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO
THE NORTH THEN NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE ONCE AGAIN SHIFTED A BIT TO THE RIGHT FOR THIS CYCLE
THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS...BUT THE ACTUAL BEST TRACK HAS BEEN
RUNNING TO THE LEFT OF MOST GUIDANCE DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...
AND THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK IS NUDGED ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AND
REMAINS ON THE LEFT EDGE OF THE RELIABLE MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH 48
HOURS. LOKE IS THEN FORECAST TO ACCELERATE RAPIDLY OFF TO THE
NORTHWEST BEYOND 48 HOURS...AS IT CONTINUES ROTATING AROUND THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE CUTOFF LOW NEAR MIDWAY AND BECOMES ENTRAINED IN
THE HUGE EXTRATROPICAL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER SUPER
TYPHOON ATSANI. LOKE IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS
OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC OCEAN...AND BY 96 HOURS SHOULD BE ABSORBED
INTO THE MUCH LARGER CIRCULATION OF EX-ATSANI.

LOKE WILL REMAIN OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 27-29C FOR
ANOTHER 24 HOURS...THEN WILL MOVE ACROSS COOLER WATERS NORTH OF 30N.
WHILE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS INCREASING AS THE CYCLONE
MOVES FURTHER POLEWARD...THE MORE RAPID NORTHEAST MOTION
OF THE STORM SEEMS TO BE MAINTAINING SUFFICIENTLY LOW RELATIVE
SHEAR TO ALLOW FOR SOME FURTHER INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY BELOW THE
IVCN CONSENSUS AND SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BRINGING LOKE
TO HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 24 HOURS. A STEADY WEAKENING TREND SHOULD
BEGIN AFTER 48 HOURS...AS THE CYCLONE MOVES ACROSS INCREASINGLY COOL
WATERS AND BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 25.2N 177.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 26.7N 176.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 29.1N 174.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 31.9N 174.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 35.0N 176.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 44.0N 175.0E 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 28/1200Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
FORECASTER JACOBSON/R BALLARD
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Re: CPAC: LOKE - Tropical Storm

#50 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 24, 2015 4:37 pm

TROPICAL STORM LOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP042015
1100 AM HST MON AUG 24 2015

THE CLOUD PATTERN AROUND LOKE HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES CAME IN AT T3.0/50KT
FROM THE THREE FIX SITES...HFO...SAB AND JTWC. THE UW-CIMSS ADT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 75 KT. I HAVE KEPT THE INITIAL INTENSITY
AT 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY...INCLUDING MICROWAVE IMAGERY...THROUGH MOST OF
THE NIGHT DID NOT SHOW WELL-DEFINED CENTER LOCATIONS. HOWEVER
RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES VERY WELL-DEFINED CENTERS INCREASING THE
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BUT RAISING DOUBTS ABOUT THE
24/1200 UTC POSITION. I HAVE RE-BESTED THE 24/1200 UTC POSITION TO
ACCOUNT FOR THESE FIXES. THIS RE-ANALYSIS HAS SHIFTED THE INITIAL
MOTION FARTHER EAST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/13. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. THE GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A LOW ALOFT DIGGING SOUTH TO THE NORTHWEST OF
LOKE. THIS LOW BE THE MAIN FACTOR CONTROLLING THE STEERING OF LOKE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. OBJECTIVE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING LOKE ROTATING AROUND THE CUTOFF LOW. THIS
WILL PRODUCE NORTHEAST MOTION WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED
THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTH THEN NORTHWEST
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AN A GRADUAL ACCELERATION IN FORWARD
SPEED. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK IS CHANGED ONLY SLIGHTLY AND IS NEAR
THE MIDDLE OF THE RELIABLE MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS.

BEYOND 48 HOURS...THE LOKE FORECAST WILL BECOME DOMINATED BY THE
FORMER TYPHOON ATSANI. LOKE IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY
72 HOURS AND BY 96 HOURS SHOULD BE ABSORBED INTO THE MUCH LARGER
CIRCULATION OF EX-ATSANI.

LOKE WILL REMAIN OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 27-29C FOR
ANOTHER 24 HOURS...THEN WILL MOVE ACROSS COOLER WATERS NORTH OF 30N.
WHILE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS INCREASING AS THE CYCLONE
MOVES FURTHER POLEWARD...THE MORE RAPID NORTHEAST MOTION
OF THE STORM SEEMS TO BE MAINTAINING SUFFICIENTLY LOW RELATIVE
SHEAR TO ALLOW FOR SOME FURTHER INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...BRINGING LOKE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 24 HOURS.
A STEADY WEAKENING TREND SHOULD BEGIN AFTER 48 HOURS...AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES ACROSS INCREASINGLY COOL WATERS AND BEGINS
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.

THE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CANCELED FOR MIDWAY ATOLL AND FOR THE PART
OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA CHANGES BETWEEN LISIANSKI AND MARO
REEF. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PEARL AND HERMES
REEF TO LISIANSKI ISLAND. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE CENTER OF
LOKE WILL PASS BETWEEN PEARL AND HERMES ATOLL AND LISIANSKI LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...NOTE THAT IT IS
IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS TOO CLOSELY ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK OF
LOKE...AS SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL CYCLONES CAN EXTEND WELL
AWAY FROM THE CENTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 25.8N 176.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 27.5N 175.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 30.1N 174.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 33.1N 175.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 36.9N 178.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 45.7N 173.3E 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON
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#51 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 24, 2015 7:36 pm

WTPA32 PHFO 250014
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LOKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP042015
200 PM HST MON AUG 24 2015

...LOKE HAS BECOME A HURRICANE AND CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM HST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 175.3W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM...SE OF MIDWAY ISLAND
ABOUT 110 MI...200 KM...SSW OF PEARL AND HERMES ATOLL
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM...WNW OF LISIANSKI ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 045 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...40 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
PEARL AND HERMES ATOLL TO LISIANSKI ISLAND.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL
MONUMENT SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LOKE.


FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM HST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOKE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 175.34 WEST. LOKE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH...40 KM/H. THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LOKE TURNING NORTH
THEN NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT 15 MILES...24 KM...FROM THE CENTER.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...115 KM..
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.34 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM PEARL AND HERMES
ATOLL TO LISIANSKI ISLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SURF...A LARGE EXISTING WESTERLY SWELL COMBINED WITH SOUTH SWELL
PRODUCED BY LOKE WILL CAUSE ROUGH SURF ACROSS SOUTH AND WEST
FACING REEFS AND SHORELINES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LARGE WAVES MAY OVERWASH LOW-LYING PORTIONS OF THE
ISLANDS AND ATOLLS DURING THIS TIME.

RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER PEARL AND HERMES
ATOLL AND LISIANSKI ISLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON
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#52 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 24, 2015 10:03 pm

WTPA42 PHFO 250256
TCDCP2

HURRICANE LOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP042015
500 PM HST MON AUG 24 2015

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS THE CLOUD TOPS OVER LOKE HAVE WARMED...BUT
AN INDISTINCT EYE HAS BEEN POPPING IN AND OUT OF VIEW ON VISIBLE AND
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
CAME IN AT T3.0/50KT FROM SAB...T3.5/55KT FROM PHFO...AND JTWC.
THE UW-CIMSS ADT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 80 KT. I HAVE RAISED THE
INITIAL INTENSITY TO 65 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 050/13. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING. THE GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON A LOW ALOFT DIGGING SOUTHWARD TO THE NORTHWEST OF
LOKE. THIS LOW THE MAIN FACTOR CONTROLLING THE STEERING OF LOKE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. OBJECTIVE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING LOKE ROTATING AROUND THE CUTOFF LOW. THIS
WILL PRODUCE NORTHEAST MOTION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTH THEN
NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND A RAPID ACCELERATION IN
FORWARD SPEED. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK IS CHANGED ONLY SLIGHTLY AND
IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE RELIABLE MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS.

LOKE WILL REMAIN OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 27-29C FOR
ANOTHER 24 HOURS...THEN MOVE ACROSS COOLER WATERS NORTH OF 30N.
WHILE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS INCREASING AS THE CYCLONE
MOVES FURTHER POLEWARD...THE MORE RAPID NORTHEAST MOTION OF THE
STORM SEEMS TO BE MAINTAINING SUFFICIENTLY LOW RELATIVE SHEAR TO
ALLOW LOKE TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...KEEPING
LOKE AS A HURRICANE FOR THE 24 HOURS. A STEADY WEAKENING TREND
SHOULD BEGIN AFTER 24 HOURS...AS THE CYCLONE MOVES ACROSS
INCREASINGLY COOL WATERS AND BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. LOKE
IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY 48
HOURS. THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME RAPIDLY ABSORBED
BY THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF TYPHOON ATSANI.

LOKE IS NOW PASSING BETWEEN PEARL AND HERMES REEF AND LISIANSKI
ISLAND. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA.
HOWEVER...NOTE THAT IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS TOO CLOSELY ON THE
EXACT FORECAST TRACK OF LOKE...AS SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL
CYCLONES CAN EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 26.7N 175.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 28.6N 173.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 31.5N 174.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 34.6N 176.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 39.0N 179.5E 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON
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#53 Postby Extratropical94 » Tue Aug 25, 2015 8:05 am

CP, 04, 2015082512, , BEST, 0, 291N, 1727W, 65, 986, HU

A slight increase pressure-wise since the last BT update and the advisory package #18.
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#54 Postby Krit-tonkla » Tue Aug 25, 2015 10:20 am

WTPA42 PHFO 251453
TCDCP2

HURRICANE LOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP042015
500 AM HST TUE AUG 25 2015

WHILE CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH LOKE HAVE WARMED
SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS...HINTS OF A WARM SPOT HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED RECENTLY NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CENTER...AND MICROWAVE PASSES
FROM EARLIER IN THE NIGHT CONTINUED TO SHOW A NEARLY COMPLETE EYE
WALL STRUCTURE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM HFO AND SAB HELD AT
4.0/65 KT...AND JTWC CAME IN AT 3.0/45 KT...WHILE CIMSS ADT
CONTINUED TO SUGGEST 82 KT. A BLEND OF THESE INPUTS SUPPORTS
KEEPING LOKE AS A HURRICANE FOR THIS ADVISORY...AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 65 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION FOR LOKE IS TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...OR 030
DEGREES...AT 16 KT. SSMIS PASSES AT 0613Z AND 0616Z ALONG WITH A
0831Z AMSU PASS INDICATED THAT THE TRACK FOR THE LAST PACKAGE HAD
BEEN TOO FAR TO THE WEST. AS A RESULT...A SLIGHT CORRECTION WAS
MADE...BUT THE PHILOSOPHY FOR THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS UNCHANGED.
LOKE IS MOVING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP...NEARLY STATIONARY
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED A LITTLE MORE THAN 450 MILES TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. LOKE WILL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH TODAY THEN TURN
TOWARD NORTHWEST TONIGHT ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE DEEP
LOW. LOKE WILL ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AS IT IS
DRAWN INTO A LARGER AND STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS CLOSELY
WITHIN A RATHER TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

LOKE WILL BEGIN A STEADY WEAKENING TREND LATER TODAY. CIMSS AND
SHIPS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ESTIMATES BOTH CAME IN AROUND 27 KT FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS HAS SHUT OFF OUTFLOW WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT...BUT SINCE WIND SHEAR IS OVER A DEEP LAYER...LOKE IS
MANAGING TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY...FOR NOW. AS LOKE CONTINUES TO
ROTATE AROUND AND INTERACT WITH THE DEEP LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST...WEAKENING WILL OCCUR. LOKE IS FORECAST TO
BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION ON WEDNESDAY THEN BE ABSORBED BY A
LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY 48 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS
SHIPS AND ICON AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 29.9N 172.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 32.0N 172.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 35.0N 175.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 39.0N 179.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 27/1200Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
FORECASTER WROE
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#55 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Aug 25, 2015 3:18 pm

WTPA42 PHFO 251453
TCDCP2

HURRICANE LOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP042015
500 AM HST TUE AUG 25 2015

WHILE CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH LOKE HAVE WARMED
SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS...HINTS OF A WARM SPOT HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED RECENTLY NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CENTER...AND MICROWAVE PASSES
FROM EARLIER IN THE NIGHT CONTINUED TO SHOW A NEARLY COMPLETE EYE
WALL STRUCTURE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM HFO AND SAB HELD AT
4.0/65 KT...AND JTWC CAME IN AT 3.0/45 KT...WHILE CIMSS ADT
CONTINUED TO SUGGEST 82 KT. A BLEND OF THESE INPUTS SUPPORTS
KEEPING LOKE AS A HURRICANE FOR THIS ADVISORY...AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 65 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION FOR LOKE IS TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...OR 030
DEGREES...AT 16 KT. SSMIS PASSES AT 0613Z AND 0616Z ALONG WITH A
0831Z AMSU PASS INDICATED THAT THE TRACK FOR THE LAST PACKAGE HAD
BEEN TOO FAR TO THE WEST. AS A RESULT...A SLIGHT CORRECTION WAS
MADE...BUT THE PHILOSOPHY FOR THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS UNCHANGED.
LOKE IS MOVING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP...NEARLY STATIONARY
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED A LITTLE MORE THAN 450 MILES TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. LOKE WILL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH TODAY THEN TURN
TOWARD NORTHWEST TONIGHT ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE DEEP
LOW. LOKE WILL ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AS IT IS
DRAWN INTO A LARGER AND STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS CLOSELY
WITHIN A RATHER TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

LOKE WILL BEGIN A STEADY WEAKENING TREND LATER TODAY. CIMSS AND
SHIPS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ESTIMATES BOTH CAME IN AROUND 27 KT FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS HAS SHUT OFF OUTFLOW WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT...BUT SINCE WIND SHEAR IS OVER A DEEP LAYER...LOKE IS
MANAGING TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY...FOR NOW. AS LOKE CONTINUES TO
ROTATE AROUND AND INTERACT WITH THE DEEP LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST...WEAKENING WILL OCCUR. LOKE IS FORECAST TO
BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION ON WEDNESDAY THEN BE ABSORBED BY A
LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY 48 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS
SHIPS AND ICON AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 29.9N 172.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 32.0N 172.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 35.0N 175.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 39.0N 179.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 27/1200Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
FORECASTER WROE
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Re: CPAC: LOKE - Tropical Storm

#56 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 25, 2015 4:46 pm

TROPICAL STORM LOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP042015
1100 AM HST TUE AUG 25 2015

DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 4.0/65KT FROM SAB AND HFO AND
3.0/45KT FROM JTWC. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE HIGHER CLOUDS
AROUND LOKE ARE BEING SHEARED OFF TO THE NORTH AND THE LOW LEVEL
CENTER IS STARTING TO BECOME EXPOSED. I HAVE DROPPED THE INITIAL
INTENSITY TO 60 KT AND DOWNGRADED LOKE TO A TROPICAL STORM.

A SERIES OF MICROWAVE PASSES SUGGEST THE 1200 UTC POSITION WAS TOO
FAR NORTHEAST SO I HAVE RE-BESTED THAT POSITION. AFTER ADJUSTING
THE TRACK...THE INITIAL MOTION FOR LOKE IS NOW TOWARD THE NORTH
AT 16 KT. DESPITE THE TRACK ADJUSTMENT...THE REASONING FOR THE
FORECAST TRACK REMAINS UNCHANGED. LOKE IS MOVING ALONG EAST OF A
DEEP AND NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED A LITTLE
MORE THAN 450 MILES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. LOKE WILL TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH NORTHWEST TODAY THEN TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT.
THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE SYSTEM WILL INCREASE AS IT IS DRAWN INTO A
LARGER AND STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS CLOSELY WITHIN
A RATHER TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

LOKE HAS BEGUN WEAKENING DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE WIND FIELD IS FORECAST TO
BECOME ASYMMETRICAL AS LOKE HEADS NORTHWEST AND STARTS TO BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL IN 24 HOURS. THE RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WILL INCREASE IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AND DECREASE ELSEWHERE.
LOKE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL LOW IN 36
HOURS. LOKE WILL BE ABSORBED BY THE LARGE LOW THAT WAS ONCE TYPHOON
ATSANI IN 48 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 31.0N 173.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 33.2N 174.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 36.7N 178.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 41.6N 177.5E 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON
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Re: CPAC: LOKE - Tropical Storm

#57 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 26, 2015 11:24 am

TROPICAL STORM LOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP042015
500 AM HST WED AUG 26 2015

LOKE IS INTERACTING WITH A DEEP CUTOFF LOW CENTERED TO THE
SOUTHWEST. THE CORE OF LOKE REMAINS INTACT...BUT A 0813 UTC ASCAT
PASS REVEALED THAT THE SYSTEM IS BECOMING ELONGATED WITH AN
ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE PROCESS OF TRANSITION
TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW IS BEGINNING. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES WERE 2.5/35 KT FROM HFO AND SAB AND 2.0/30 KT FROM JTWC.
THE ASCAT PASS REVEALED NUMEROUS INSTANCES OF 50 KT WINDS IN THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT. GIVEN THE BIASES OF ASCAT...WINDS COULD BE
HIGHER...BUT FOR THIS ADVISORY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS RAISED
TO 50 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS TO THE NORTHWEST...OR 320 DEGREES...AT 26 KT.
LOKE WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE NORTHWESTWARD TODAY BETWEEN THE
DEEP LOW LOCATED ROUGHLY 400 MILES TO THE SOUTH AND STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED 1300 MILES TO THE NORTHEAST. EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AS
LOKE BECOMES DRAWN INTO THE LARGE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH
FORMER TYPHOON ATSANI LOCATED FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. THE FORECAST
TRACK IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF A TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE CORE REMAINS INTACT FOR NOW AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LESS THAN
10 KT...AND SOME OUTFLOW PERSISTS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER...UNDERLYING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY DOWN TO
26C AND WILL BE STEADILY DECLINING ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE TODAY AS LOKE CONTINUES TO
INTERACT WITH THE DEEP CUTOFF LOW TO THE SOUTH...AND TRANSITION TO
AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW SHOULD BE COMPLETE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TODAY AND ONLY SLOW
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
SHIPS CLOSELY AND WAS DONE IN COORDINATION WITH THE OCEAN
PREDICTION CENTER.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 35.5N 177.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 39.2N 179.4E 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 27/1200Z 45.4N 174.7E 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 28/0000Z 51.6N 170.1E 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER WROE
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#58 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Aug 26, 2015 4:08 pm

WTPA42 PHFO 262052
TCDCP2

TROPICAL STORM LOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP042015
1100 AM HST WED AUG 26 2015

LOKE CONTINUES TO TRACK RAPIDLY NORTHWEST AND TRANSITION TO AN
EXTRATROPICAL LOW. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 2.0/35
KT FROM HFO...2.5/35 KT FROM SAB AND 2.0/30 KT FROM JTWC. SINCE THE
SYSTEM IS BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL...THE DVORAK ESTIMATES MAY NOT BE
REPRESENTATIVE. I AM KEEPING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 50 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS TO THE NORTHWEST...OR 315 DEGREES...AT 32 KT.
LOKE WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE NORTHWEST BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER
LOW ABOUT 565 MILES TO THE SOUTH AND A STRONG SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
ABOUT 1200 MILES TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS MOTION WILL TAKE LOKE WEST
OF THE DATELINE AND OUT OF THE CPHC AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LOKE IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 50 KT AND TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW WITHIN SIX
HOURS. THE FORECAST TRACK...INTENSITY AND WIND RADII WERE BASED ON
INPUT FROM THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST BULLETIN ON THE SYSTEM FROM CPHC. PLEASE SEE
THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS FROM OPC FOR FUTURE FORECASTS. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER UNDER AWIPS HEADER HSFEP1 AND
WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 38.0N 179.9E 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 42.0N 177.0E 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 27/1800Z 49.0N 171.0E 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 28/0600Z 55.0N 170.0E 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 28/1800Z 59.0N 175.0E 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 29/1800Z...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON
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#59 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Aug 26, 2015 6:41 pm

Is JMA going to issue an advisory since it's now technically in the WPac and still tropical (for now), or are they not going to bother?
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Re:

#60 Postby Extratropical94 » Thu Aug 27, 2015 2:26 am

1900hurricane wrote:Is JMA going to issue an advisory since it's now technically in the WPac and still tropical (for now), or are they not going to bother?


JMA mentioned it in their weather summary/weather map product as a non-tropical system.

DEVELOPED LOW FORMER TROPICAL STORM LOKE 1000 HPA
AT 39N 179E SEA SOUTH OF ALEUTIANS MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 25 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF LOW.
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