EPAC: IGNACIO - Post-Tropical

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Iune
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Re: EPAC: IGNACIO - Tropical Storm

#361 Postby Iune » Fri Sep 04, 2015 11:30 am

I can't recall a EPac/CPac track continuing this far north...

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Re: EPAC: IGNACIO - Tropical Storm

#362 Postby talkon » Fri Sep 04, 2015 1:25 pm

:uarrow: Maybe you forgot Ana last year.
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Re: EPAC: IGNACIO - Tropical Storm

#363 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 04, 2015 4:01 pm

TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 44
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122015
1100 AM HST FRI SEP 04 2015

IGNACIO CONTINUES TO HAVE A WELL DEFINED CORE IN VISIBLE IMAGERY
AS WELL AS SMALL INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
LLCC...BARELY ENOUGH TO STILL BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE
CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY OVER 24C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND HEADING
355/16. CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGED FROM 3.5 AT SAB AND HFO
AND 4.0 AT JTWC...SO THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KT. THE
TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 48 HOURS...SHOWING
IGNACIO HEADING JUST WEST OF DUE NORTH...MERGING WITH A FRONT AND
MID-LEVEL TROUGH...AND THEN TURNING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE HIGHER
LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE
TO THE LEFT AT 48 HOURS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL
CONSENSUS. SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK...SO IGNACIO
SHOULD MAINTAIN INTENSITY FAIRLY WELL AS IT GAINS LATITUDE. BY 48
HOURS...IT WILL BE OVER SUB-20C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE COOLER WATER OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS AND LACK OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER MAY
RENDER IT AS A POST-TROPICAL LOW EVEN BEFORE IT BECOMES
EXTRATROPICAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WAS PROVIDED BY THE
OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER IN WASHINGTON D.C.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 34.1N 164.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 36.3N 164.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 39.3N 164.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 41.3N 164.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 43.8N 163.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 47.1N 156.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 08/1800Z 50.1N 141.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 09/1800Z 52.0N 133.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD
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Re: EPAC: IGNACIO - Post-Tropical

#364 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 04, 2015 9:55 pm

Bye.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 45
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122015
500 PM HST FRI SEP 04 2015

IGNACIO CONSISTS OF A LARGE SWIRL OF LAYERED CLOUDS WITHOUT
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER TO
BE CLASSIFIED A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THUS...AFTER COORDINATION WITH
THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER...THE SYSTEM IS BEING RECLASSIFIED AS A
55 KT POST-TROPICAL LOW. THE SYSTEM IS OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
OF 24C NOW...AND SST WILL LOWER QUICKLY ALONG THE TRACK FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS TO SUB-20C BY 36 HOURS. RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A SLOW WEAKENING TREND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY
FOLLOWS THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...WHICH ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD
AGREEMENT. THE TRACK FORECAST THROUGH 48 HOURS WAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
TO THE LEFT ONCE AGAIN TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED GUIDANCE CONSENSUS. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WAS
PROVIDED BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER /OPC/ IN WASHINGTON D.C.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM FROM THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS FROM
OPC FOR FUTURE FORECASTS UNDER AWIPS HEADER HSFEP1 AND WMO HEADER
FZPN01 KWBC.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 35.5N 164.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 37.6N 165.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 06/0000Z 40.4N 165.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 06/1200Z 42.5N 165.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 07/0000Z 44.3N 164.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 08/0000Z 48.4N 152.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 09/0000Z 50.3N 139.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 10/0000Z 55.0N 138.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD
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#365 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Sep 04, 2015 10:13 pm

It was going to happen sooner or later. So is the demise of the first of the triplets.

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#366 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 04, 2015 10:23 pm

Think the plug was pulled too soon, but don't have much experience with ET systems.
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Re:

#367 Postby Hammy » Fri Sep 04, 2015 10:36 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:Think the plug was pulled too soon, but don't have much experience with ET systems.


I agree, I've seen Atlantic hurricanes look less tropical than this with advisories maintained. I also think they've been underestimating the intensity, wasn't it kept as a TS even after having an eye for twelve hours yesterday?
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Re: Re:

#368 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 04, 2015 10:45 pm

Hammy wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:Think the plug was pulled too soon, but don't have much experience with ET systems.


I agree, I've seen Atlantic hurricanes look less tropical than this with advisories maintained. I also think they've been underestimating the intensity, wasn't it kept as a TS even after having an eye for twelve hours yesterday?


I guess stable air aloft could limit surface mixing.
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#369 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Sep 04, 2015 10:47 pm

Was kinda thinking similar, maybe a little early.
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