EPAC: IGNACIO - Post-Tropical

[Extratropical94]

Advisory package 2, just for the record.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122015
200 AM PDT TUE AUG 25 2015

...DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD FAR FROM LAND...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 131.7W
ABOUT 1610 MI...2595 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twelve-E
was located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 131.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this
general motion with some increase in forward speed is forecast
during the next day or so. A turn toward the west-northwest is
expected by Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours,
and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later
today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122015
200 AM PDT TUE AUG 25 2015

The depression's cloud pattern has not changed much during the last
several hours. Deep convection remains mainly confined to the
western portion of the circulation due to southeasterly wind shear.
Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and CIMSS at the
University of Wisconsin all support maintaining the initial wind
speed at 30 kt.

The shear currently affecting the cyclone is expected to lessen
later today and it should be relatively light for the next few
days. In addition, sea surface temperatures along the expected
track are between 28-29 deg C, which are favorable for
intensification. Therefore, steady strengthening seems likely
during the next 3 to 4 days. The global models show an increase in
southwesterly shear by the end of the forecast period, and that
should cause the intensity of the system to level off. The GFDL and
HWRF models are the most aggressive bringing this system to
hurricane strength in a couple of days with continued strengthening
thereafter. Conversely, the SHIPS and LGEM models show much less
strengthening. Given the expected conducive environmental
conditions, the NHC intensity forecast is increased a little from
the previous one and is good agreement with the intensity model
consensus.

The cyclone is moving slowly westward, 275/4 kt. A general westward
motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the
next day or so while mid-level ridging builds to the north and
northeast of the system. After that time, a west-northwestward to
northwestward motion is predicted due to a large-scale trough
eroding the western periphery of the ridge. The NHC track forecast
is nudged to the left of the previous one and is close to the
various consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 13.2N 131.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 13.0N 132.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 12.8N 133.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 13.0N 135.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 13.6N 137.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 28/0600Z 15.3N 140.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 29/0600Z 16.8N 144.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 30/0600Z 18.5N 147.4W 60 KT 70 MPH

[Extratropical94]

EP, 12, 2015082512, , BEST, 0, 132N, 1321W, 30, 1005, TD

Pressure down to 1005 mbars as of 12Z best track data.

[Alyono]

would be ironic if this is the main US threat this upcoming week

[Extratropical94]

Dvorak numbers indicate strengthening. We might have Ignacio soon.

TXPZ29 KNES 251213
TCSENP

A. 12E (NONAME)

B. 25/1200Z

C. 13.1N

D. 132.5W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...5/10 BANDING FOR DT=2.5. MET=2.0 WITH PT=2.5. FT IS
BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL

[Extratropical94]

Also, 12E is showing Erika how to not look pathetic.

[Alyono]

any plans for recon in this in a few days?

[Extratropical94]

any plans for recon in this in a few days?

There's no indication of any missions in yesterday's TCPOD. We might get further information later today when the new TCPOD is published.

Code: Select all

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122015
800 AM PDT TUE AUG 25 2015

The depression is exhibiting a sheared cloud pattern, with an
asymmetric distribution of convection over the western semicircle
of the cyclone's circulation. The cyclone's current appearance
makes sense, given that SHIPS model output and UW-CIMSS shear
analyses are indicating moderate southeasterly shear. Satellite
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 2.0 and 2.5, respectively.
Although the depression's cloud pattern has become somewhat better
organized since late yesterday, the initial intensity is kept at 30
kt until there is more definitive proof that the system has reached
tropical storm strength.

The initial motion estimate is 270/05. A deep longwave trough over
the eastern Pacific has temporarily weakened the subtropical ridge
west of 130W, which has left the cyclone in a weak easterly steering
flow. This synoptic pattern is expected to persist for the next
couple of days, which should maintain the slow westward motion. In
about 48 hours, the subtropical ridge is forecast to rebuild, which
should result in a west-northwestward track with an increase in
forward speed. The cyclone is forecast to maintain a 290- to
300-degree heading throughout the remainder of the forecast period.
The official forecast is very near the previous one, even though the
multi-model consensus has shifted toward the left. It has remained
about the same mostly because the GFS solution, which keeps the
cyclone very weak with a track far to the south, has largely been
discounted.

The shear currently affecting the depression is forecast to relax
in about 24 hours and remain low through about 3 days. The decrease
in shear, combined with anomalously warm waters of 28 to 29 deg C
and a moistening environment along the cyclone's path, suggest that
intensification is likely. The one limiting factor could be how
long it takes for the inner core of the cyclone to become better
organized. By early next week, the cyclone should encounter
westerly shear associated with the mid-oceanic trough anchored near
the longitude of Hawaii, and the shear should be strong enough to
result in a leveling off of the intensity and then weakening.
There is a significant difference between the statistical and
dynamical intensity guidance this cycle. The official intensity
forecast is above the previous one and close to, but a little lower
than, the stronger dynamical model guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 13.2N 132.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 13.1N 133.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 13.1N 134.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 13.4N 136.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 14.1N 138.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 28/1200Z 15.8N 141.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 29/1200Z 17.2N 145.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 30/1200Z 18.7N 148.3W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

[Alyono]

nothing in the tcpod. wondering if srrain heard anything new?

[Yellow Evan]

Looks slightly sheared, but likely a tropical storm now. However, I understand why they held this off earlier as the LLC is still semi-new, so lag may be an issue.

[Kingarabian]

Euro still makes it strong and sends it N of Hawaii.

GFS barely has it as it passes safely south of Hawaii.

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 12, 2015082518, , BEST, 0, 131N, 1326W, 35, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 0, 0, 30, 1010, 200, 40, 45, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, IGNACIO,

[Kingarabian]

GFS/HWRF south of Hawaii.

Euro/GFDL north of Hawaii.

[srainhoutx]

nothing in the tcpod. wondering if srrain heard anything new?

Nothing new to offer today. I would have heard something if plans had changed.

Edit: Departure from Hickam just was slipped back 48 hours.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS/HWRF south of Hawaii.

Euro/GFDL north of Hawaii.

Assuming this gets as strong as I think it will get, it'll pass the northeast of Hawaii most likely.

[Extratropical94]

EP, 12, 2015082518, , BEST, 0, 131N, 1326W, 35, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 0, 0, 30, 1010, 200, 40, 45, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, IGNACIO,

That's the 14th storm this season in the E/C-PAC. One year ago, this basin also had already seen 14 storms at this point with an active category 5 churning.

[Yellow Evan]

Code: Select all

                    * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  IGNACIO     EP122015  08/25/15  18 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    35    36    38    39    41    45    49    52    53    54    53    51    49
V (KT) LAND       35    36    38    39    41    45    49    52    53    54    53    51    49
V (KT) LGE mod    35    37    38    40    41    43    45    47    48    47    46    43    41
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        12    12     9     5     3     5     3     6     5     8    11    17    21
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -6    -4    -6    -5     0     0     0     0    -2    -4    -3    -3    -2
SHEAR DIR        151   167   181   182   147   132   110   165   232   230   246   245   252
SST (C)         28.8  28.7  28.7  28.6  28.5  28.4  28.2  27.8  27.7  27.5  27.3  27.1  27.0
POT. INT. (KT)   151   150   150   149   149   148   147   142   141   138   137   134   133
200 MB T (C)   -52.6 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -53.3
TH_E DEV (C)       8     9     9     9     9     9     8     9     9     9     9     9     9
700-500 MB RH     59    57    56    57    58    63    62    67    67    69    67    67    66
MODEL VTX (KT)    11    11    11    11    11    10     9     9     9     9     9     7     7
850 MB ENV VOR    51    57    60    62    60    56    40    35    19    26    15     3   -16
200 MB DIV        57    65    63    37    30    45    38    32    14    13     0   -20   -13
700-850 TADV       0     0     0    -1     0     1    -2     0     0     3     2     4     3
LAND (KM)       2454  2407  2343  2273  2204  2006  1758  1542  1355  1158   963   781   609
LAT (DEG N)     13.1  13.1  13.0  13.1  13.2  13.6  14.5  15.4  16.1  16.8  17.5  18.2  19.1
LONG(DEG W)    132.6 133.3 133.9 134.5 135.2 137.0 139.1 140.9 142.5 144.2 145.9 147.5 149.0
STM SPEED (KT)     6     6     6     6     8    10    11     9     9     8     9     9     8
HEAT CONTENT      25    25    23    19    18    20    16    13    12    22    22    22    21

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/  5      CX,CY:  -4/  0
  T-12 MAX WIND:  30            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  548  (MEAN=581)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  27.8 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  56.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   1.   2.   4.   8.  13.  17.  20.  22.  23.  24.  24.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     0.   1.   2.   3.   5.   7.   8.   9.   9.   9.   8.   6.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   3.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.  -2.  -3.  -5.  -6.  -6.
  PERSISTENCE            1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -5.  -7.  -8.  -9.  -9.  -9.  -8.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   3.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -4.  -4.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.
  GOES PREDICTORS       -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -4.  -4.  -4.  -3.  -3.  -3.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           1.   3.   4.   6.  10.  14.  17.  18.  19.  18.  16.  14.

   ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122015 IGNACIO    08/25/15  18 UTC **
           ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   5.0 Range:-22.0 to  38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  1.0
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   8.3 Range: 18.7 to   1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.9
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 114.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.8
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  27.8 Range: 38.9 to   2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.3
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  22.0 Range:  3.6 to  75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.2
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  50.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.3
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  53.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.2/  0.1
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  70.4 Range: 57.6 to  96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.0
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    25% is   1.9 times the sample mean(13.1%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    21% is   2.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    15% is   2.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=     1% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 12, 2015082518, , BEST, 0, 131N, 1326W, 35, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 0, 0, 30, 1010, 200, 40, 45, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, IGNACIO,

That's the 14th storm this season in the E/C-PAC. One year ago, this basin also had already seen 14 storms at this point with an active category 5 churning.

96E will probs form in a day or two, making it 15.

[Alyono]

nothing in the tcpod. wondering if srrain heard anything new?

Nothing new to offer today. I would have heard something if plans had changed.

Edit: Departure from Hickam just was slipped back 48 hours.

just to clarify, they are delaying leaving for 48 hours? Waiting to see what happens with 12-E?

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122015
200 PM PDT TUE AUG 25 2015

The organization of the cyclone's cloud pattern has increased
significantly since yesterday. The center of circulation appears to
be near the eastern edge or barely underneath a small mass of deep
convection instead of being exposed to the east. Satellite pictures
also show increased banding, and low-cloud lines suggest a more
vigorous circulation. Dvorak intensity estimates of T2.5/35 kt from
TAFB and SAB reflect the increase in organization, and the initial
intensity is raised to 35 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 265/05. A deep longwave trough over
the eastern Pacific has temporarily weakened the mid-level
subtropical ridge west of 130W, which has left the cyclone in a weak
easterly steering flow. This synoptic pattern is expected to
persist for the next day or so, which should should allow the slow
westward motion to continue. After 36 to 48 hours, the longwave
trough over the eastern Pacific should lift out and the subtropical
ridge is forecast to rebuild westward into the central Pacific and
cause Ignacio to move on a west-northwestward course. The track
guidance has shifted significantly to the left and has been
shifting toward the left during the past few cycles in response to
the better handling of the strength of the subtropical ridge. The
new track forecast is adjusted significantly to the left but not as
far south as the multi-model consensus or the ECMWF and GFS ensemble
means. The official track forecast places much less weight on the
ECMWF solution that spuriously splits the mid-level vortex in 3 days
time, which results in a northward jump in the track.

On the large scale, global models show decreasing shear and enhanced
lower to middle tropospheric moisture along the cyclone's path
during the next 2 to 3 days while it moves over anomalously warm
SSTs of 28 to 29 deg C. These favorable factors should lead to
steady if not quick intensification, with the one limiting factor
likely to be how quickly the cyclone can establish an inner core.
The intensity forecast late in the period depends very much on
where Ignacio is, and the divergence in the track guidance makes
that intensity forecast after about 3 days of low confidence. A
more southern track, as is now being shown in some of the guidance,
could result in an even stronger cyclone than indicated. The
official intensity forecast is increased again over the previous
one and is close to, but below, the dynamical model guidance and the
FSU Superensemble output that has consistently been higher than the
statistical models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 13.0N 133.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 12.9N 134.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 12.9N 135.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 13.2N 137.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 13.9N 139.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 15.4N 142.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 29/1800Z 16.7N 146.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 30/1800Z 18.1N 149.7W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain