EPAC: IGNACIO - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

12z HWRF also shifts south.

[Kingarabian]

Going to be a pretty looking medium sized hurricane.

Anyways, I think either the GFS is going to shift back south or the Euro will shift back north.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

26/1800 UTC 11.9N 136.0W T3.5/3.5 IGNACIO -- East Pacific

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 26 AUG 2015 Time : 190000 UTC
Lat : 12:12:26 N Lon : 135:41:50 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.1 / 987.8mb/ 67.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.1 4.3 4.3

Center Temp : -74.1C Cloud Region Temp : -72.5C

[Alyono]

While Erika has the potential to be the greatest USA Threat if it really blows up in the Bahamas, this is the more sure fire USA threat. Could be a cat 2 near the islands, though the track is very uncertain

[Yellow Evan]

Major difference between the 12z GFS and 12z ECMWF is that the GFS moves this NW after getting picked up by a trough well to its WNW (looks semi-fishy) while the ECMWF has this interacting with Kilo (might be far-fetched).

[Kingarabian]

Major difference between the 12z GFS and 12z ECMWF is that the GFS moves this NW after getting picked up by a trough well to its WNW (looks semi-fishy) while the ECMWF has this interacting with Kilo (might be far-fetched).

I think what the Euro was originally showing is about right. Looks like it'll be too strong to continue on West and miss Hawaii to the south and not much weakness to the north for a safe Julio type exit. Thinking a Guillermo type track.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS continues to recurve it. Has it really strong close to Hawaii.

[Alyono]

also shows it intensifying up until it gets very near the islands.

This time, an intense hurricane from the east is POSSIBLE. Not saying it will happen, but we cannot rule out the possibility

[WeatherGuesser]

Sorry, but it's still too far out and HI is such a tiny speck.

Even at that, I'm wondering about a 1-2 punch with the other one a few days behind it.

[Kingarabian]

Sorry, but it's still too far out and HI is such a tiny speck.

Even at that, I'm wondering about a 1-2 punch with the other one a few days behind it.

I agree. If the track by the NHC/CPHC remains the same on Friday, then I'll start getting worried.

But the notion that the worst hurricanes can only come from the south won't hold true for long. Too many threats in the last 8 years coming from the east.

I think Jimena is almost a set in stone, shoe-in re-curve.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Alyono]

Sorry, but it's still too far out and HI is such a tiny speck.

Even at that, I'm wondering about a 1-2 punch with the other one a few days behind it.

I agree. If the track by the NHC/CPHC remains the same on Friday, then I'll start getting worried.

But the notion that the worst hurricanes can only come from the south won't hold true for long. Too many threats in the last 8 years coming from the east.

I think Jimena is almost a set in stone, shoe-in re-curve.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

the unusually warm water is allowing east threats this year

[Yellow Evan]

Sorry, but it's still too far out and HI is such a tiny speck.

Even at that, I'm wondering about a 1-2 punch with the other one a few days behind it.

Highly unlikely. 13E may not make it to the CPAC even.

[Kingarabian]

18z HWRF shifts slightly east, slower, but stronger.

[Kingarabian]

TAFB supports a hurricane:

Code: Select all

EP, 12, 201508270000,  10, DVTS,         CI,  , 1190N, 13650W,      , 2,  65, 2,  987, 2, DVRK,    ,     ,     ,     ,     ,     ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,    ,    , E,  TAFB,  JA,   VI, 3, 4040 /////,      ,   , GOES15,  CSC, T, Very cold top convection over and around the center.


SAB:

Code: Select all

  27/0000 UTC   11.5N    136.8W       T3.5/3.5         IGNACIO -- East Pacific

[Kingarabian]

I'd upgrade to a hurricane based on this:

[img]http://i.imgur.com/Ast7WMw.jpg[img]

[TheStormExpert]

@TropicalTidbits: Wednesday Evening video discussion on Erika and Ignacio: http://t.co/3ue0SASH8w

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 12, 2015082700, , BEST, 0, 120N, 1370W, 65, 992, HU, 34, NEQ, 50, 50, 50, 50, 1008, 200, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, IGNACIO, D,

[Yellow Evan]

Code: Select all

             ----- Current Analysis -----
     Date :  27 AUG 2015    Time :   003000 UTC
      Lat :   12:01:51 N     Lon :  136:45:13 W

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                4.4 / 981.9mb/ 74.6kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                4.4     4.4     4.4

[Kingarabian]

Pretty looking hurricane, ready to take off: