EPAC: IGNACIO - Post-Tropical

[Extratropical94]

Good morning Ignacio.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 AUG 2015 Time : 170000 UTC
Lat : 16:05:42 N Lon : 146:34:18 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.3 / 942.1mb/122.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.3 6.4 6.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 24 km

Center Temp : +13.6C Cloud Region Temp : -68.3C

Scene Type : EYE

[Extratropical94]

Intensity unchanged at intermediate advisory.

HURRICANE IGNACIO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122015
800 AM HST SAT AUG 29 2015

...HAWAIIAN ISLANDS REMAIN VULNERABLE AS MAJOR HURRICANE IGNACIO
APPROACHES FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM HST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 146.6W
ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 710 MI...1140 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES

[Alyono]

12Z EC looks to have shifted even farther to the north. A hit here would be an epic failure of modeling

[Extratropical94]

TXPN27 KNES 291802
TCSCNP

A. 12E (IGNACIO)

B. 29/1730Z

C. 16.1N

D. 146.6W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T6.0/6.0/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN LIGHT GRAY FOR AN EYE NUMBER OF 5.0.
A WARM MEDIUM GRAY EYE WITH A BLACK RING YIELDS A +1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT
GIVING A DT OF 6.0. MET IS 5.5 BASED ON RAPID INTENSIFICATION. PT IS
6.0. FT IS BASED ON DT. 6 HOUR AVERAGE T-NO IS 6.0 ALLOWING THE RULE
OF INTENSIFYING NO MORE THAN 1.5 IN 12 HOURS TO BE BROKEN.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...LIDDICK

[Extratropical94]

Category 4 incoming.

12E IGNACIO 150829 1800 16.1N 146.6W EPAC 115 954

[Yellow Evan]

Code: Select all

                    * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  IGNACIO     EP122015  08/29/15  18 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND   115   123   125   123   116    99    83    71    63    59    57    55    55
V (KT) LAND      115   123   125   123   116    99    83    71    63    59    57    55    55
V (KT) LGE mod   115   121   119   112   105    89    76    66    58    53    52    53    54
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)         1     4     8     9     9    13    17    21    19    17    17    16    19
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -5    -7    -5    -1     0     5     7     6    -2     3     0     3    -2
SHEAR DIR        186   218   254   258   255   244   229   210   225   222   221   232   268
SST (C)         27.7  27.6  27.4  27.3  27.2  27.3  27.4  27.5  27.3  27.1  27.3  27.1  26.8
POT. INT. (KT)   140   140   137   136   135   137   137   138   136   134   136   134   131
200 MB T (C)   -51.6 -51.0 -50.9 -51.1 -51.2 -51.0 -51.7 -51.4 -51.7 -51.3 -51.6 -51.2 -51.5
TH_E DEV (C)      10    10    10    10     9    10     9     9     8     8     8     7     6
700-500 MB RH     61    62    59    60    58    59    60    60    63    60    63    60    61
MODEL VTX (KT)    27    25    27    28    27    26    26    26    26    26    27    27    28
850 MB ENV VOR    37    38    35    39    45    61    65    56    62    58    66    57    41
200 MB DIV        18    26    -7     3    19    25    16    25    32    23    19     6     4
700-850 TADV       2     4     5     7     5     7     6    12     8    11     4    11    14
LAND (KM)        946   850   755   671   588   421   252   190   174   235   307   411   549
LAT (DEG N)     16.1  16.6  17.1  17.6  18.1  19.1  20.2  21.2  22.2  23.3  24.7  25.9  27.1
LONG(DEG W)    146.6 147.4 148.1 148.8 149.4 150.8 152.5 153.9 155.2 156.5 158.0 159.2 160.3
STM SPEED (KT)     8     9     8     8     8     9     9     8     8     9     9     8     7
HEAT CONTENT      27    27    27    33    34    23    30    22    18    21    12     8     8

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/  7      CX,CY:  -5/  4
  T-12 MAX WIND:  80            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  590  (MEAN=581)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:   7.7 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL         -2.  -5.  -8. -11. -19. -27. -33. -39. -45. -49. -52. -54.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -5.  -7.  -9.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.  -1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -5.  -5.  -4.  -3.  -1.   0.
  PERSISTENCE           10.  14.  14.  13.   7.   3.   0.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -5.  -6.  -8.  -9.  -9.  -9.  -8.  -8.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   0.   1.   1.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   2.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   4.   4.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   1.   3.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.
  GOES PREDICTORS        1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   4.   4.   4.   5.   5.   5.   5.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           8.  10.   8.   1. -16. -32. -44. -52. -56. -58. -60. -60.

   ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122015 IGNACIO    08/29/15  18 UTC **
           ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):  35.0 Range:-22.0 to  38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  2.1
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   6.3 Range: 18.7 to   1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  1.0
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :  22.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.0/  0.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :   7.7 Range: 38.9 to   2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  0.9
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  29.6 Range:  3.6 to  75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.3
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  11.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.2/  0.1
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  99.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  1.0/  0.5
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  67.4 Range: 57.6 to  96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.0
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=     4% is   0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=     3% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=     2% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=     1% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 IGNACIO    08/29/15  18 UTC         ##
   ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS  ##
   ## AHI= 12   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[TheAustinMan]

Ignacio and Hawaii from the Himawari-8 satellite:

[CrazyC83]

Recon supports a 120 kt intensity given the FL and SFMR winds.

[Kingarabian]

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 AUG 2015 Time : 190000 UTC
Lat : 16:14:51 N Lon : 146:42:34 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.4 / 939.8mb/124.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.4 6.4 6.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 25 km

Center Temp : +14.9C Cloud Region Temp : -68.4C

Scene Type : EYE

[Kingarabian]

Euro ensembles:


GFS ensembles:

[Kingarabian]

Recon supports a 120 kt intensity given the FL and SFMR winds.

Potential to find higher winds now as the eye continues to warm and -70C cloud tops trying to wrap around again.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 AUG 2015 Time : 200000 UTC
Lat : 16:25:34 N Lon : 146:50:01 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.4 / 939.7mb/124.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.4 6.3 6.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 24 km

Center Temp : +17.3C Cloud Region Temp : -67.3C

Scene Type : EYE

[cycloneye]

Look at the mesovortices in the eye.

[Kingarabian]

Advisory Number 020
Issued at 1100 AM HST SAT AUG 29 2015
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location: 16.4N 146.9W
ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 795 MI...1280 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
Maximum sustained winds: 140 MPH...220 KM/H
Present movement: NW or 315 degrees AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
Minimum central pressure: 951 MB...28.08 INCHES

[Kingarabian]

000
WTPA33 PHFO 292057
TCPCP3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IGNACIO ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122015
1100 AM HST SAT AUG 29 2015

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS IGNACIO A CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 146.9W
ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 795 MI...1280 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IGNACIO. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED
FOR ADDITIONAL ISLANDS LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IGNACIO WAS
LOCATED BY U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT NEAR
LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 146.9 WEST. IGNACIO IS MOVING TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
IGNACIO WILL BE PASSING NORTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IGNACIO IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS STILL
POSSIBLE TODAY BEFORE A WEAKENING TREND BEGINS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 951 MB...28.08 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE BIG ISLAND OF
HAWAII STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS NEAR 6 INCHES MAINLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN...
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IGNACIO WILL ARRIVE ALONG EAST
AND SOUTHEAST FACING SHORES OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. RESULTANT SURF WILL BE LARGE AND POTENTIALLY
LIFE-THREATENING...ESPECIALLY ON THE BIG ISLAND LATER THIS WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD

[cycloneye]

[Yellow Evan]

WTPA43 PHFO 292118
TCDCP3

HURRICANE IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122015
1100 AM HST SAT AUG 29 2015

IGNACIO HAS A VERY IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE PRESENTATION THIS MORNING
WITH A 20 NM WARM...CLEAR EYE. THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FOUND 133
KT FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF IGNACIO...WITH
SFMR WINDS PEAKING AT 121 KT. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY HAS BEEN SET TO 120 KT...THE SECOND CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN OF 2015...AND THE THIRD MAJOR
HURRICANE FOR THE YEAR. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ONCE AGAIN
TO FIT THE NEW AIRCRAFT DATA.

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...315 DEGREES...AT 8
KNOTS. OUR FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED...AS IGNACIO
CONTINUES TO MOVE STEADILY NORTHWEST TOWARD A BREAK IN THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AND THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND
THIS IDEA. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...BEYOND DAY 3...SOME OF
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLIGHT BEND TOWARD THE WEST AS THE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER SHEAR FROM THE SUBTROPICAL JET AS WELL AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. OUR
FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CLOSE
TO THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE THROUGH 72 HOURS OWING TO THE INITIAL
MORE NORTHWARD MOTION...AND SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AT DAYS 4 AND 5.

IGNACIO IS CURRENTLY AT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF AN AREA OF WEAK SHEAR
UNDERNEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG
THE FORECAST TRACK FROM NASA-SPORT ARE 27-28C. THE HURRICANE HAS
A VERY SMALL WINDOW TO INTENSIFY FURTHER TODAY...BUT AS IT CONTINUES
NORTHWEST IT WILL BEGIN ENCOUNTERING UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES THAT
WILL START TO INDUCE WEAKENING. OUR FORECAST STAYS CLOSE TO THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN SHOWS WEAKENING AT A
SLIGHTLY MORE GRADUAL TREND THAN SHIPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IGNACIO COULD WEAKEN FASTER
BEYOND 48 HOURS IF THE STRONG SHEAR DEPICTED IN THE GLOBAL MODELS
MATERIALIZES.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 16.4N 146.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 17.3N 147.9W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 18.6N 149.3W 115 KT 135 MPH
36H 31/0600Z 19.6N 150.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 31/1800Z 20.6N 152.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 01/1800Z 22.5N 155.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 02/1800Z 24.5N 158.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 03/1800Z 26.4N 161.2W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD

[Yellow Evan]

TXPN27 KNES 292356
TCSCNP

A. 12E (IGNACIO)

B. 29/2330Z

C. 16.6N

D. 147.2W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T6.0/6.0/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN LIGHT GRAY FOR AN EYE NUMBER OF 5.0.
A WARM MEDIUM GRAY EYE WITH A BLACK RING YIELDS A +1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT
GIVING A DT OF 6.0. MET IS 5.5 BASED ON RAPID DEVELOPMENT COMPARED TO
24 HOURS AGO. PT IS 6.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...LIDDICK