EPAC: IGNACIO - Post-Tropical

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Re: EPAC: IGNACIO - Hurricane

#281 Postby abajan » Sat Aug 29, 2015 7:53 pm

With two big Cat 4 hurricanes in such close proximity to each other, I'm thinking there's a very real danger of rogue waves. Cruise liners and other vessels in the area had better be on the lookout! :eek:

This post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just my opinion and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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#282 Postby NDG » Sat Aug 29, 2015 8:03 pm

Is not too often you see this so close to Hawaii.

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#283 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Aug 29, 2015 8:14 pm

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Wow.
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#284 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Aug 29, 2015 8:30 pm

A. Hurricane Ignacio.

B. 29/2330Z.

C. 16.6°N.

D. 147.2°W.

E. Goes-15.

F. T6.0/6.0/d2.0/24 hrs.

G. Eir/ir/vis.

H. Remarks: Previous fix was .5 too low due to mistake in eye temperature (should have been wmg, not ow). So DT should have been 6.0. This time around, .eye pattern using black surrounding shade and an wmg eye with same surrounding black ring gives DT of 5.0 + eye adjustment of + 1.0 to get 6.0. MET and PT agree. Final T based on DT.

I. Addl positions nil.

$$

Fujii.
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#285 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Aug 29, 2015 8:31 pm

Near Daniel 06 levels now.


----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 AUG 2015 Time : 003000 UTC
Lat : 16:41:39 N Lon : 147:19:42 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.4 / 938.9mb/124.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.2 6.3 6.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 24 km

Center Temp : +16.8C Cloud Region Temp : -66.8C

Scene Type : EYE
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#286 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Aug 29, 2015 8:32 pm

Hawaii is super lucky. Super legitimate devestating threat.
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Re: EPAC: IGNACIO - Hurricane

#287 Postby gatorcane » Sat Aug 29, 2015 8:38 pm

cycloneye wrote:Look at the mesovortices in the eye.
http://i.imgur.com/okqNCYz.png


Wow very impressive :eek:
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#288 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Aug 29, 2015 8:39 pm

Love the eye.

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Re:

#289 Postby abajan » Sat Aug 29, 2015 8:41 pm

Kingarabian wrote:[img ]http://i.imgur.com/t4EAExU.gif[/img]

Wow.
Badass! :eek:
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Re: EPAC: IGNACIO - Hurricane

#290 Postby dexterlabio » Sat Aug 29, 2015 8:42 pm

A sudden leap of faith as Ignacio is looking much more impressive than Jimena, at least IMO. :lol:

However with that track, the Hawaii still expects some blustery weather or maybe TS conditions from Ignacio, am I right?
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Re: EPAC: IGNACIO - Hurricane

#291 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Aug 29, 2015 8:52 pm

dexterlabio wrote:A sudden leap of faith as Ignacio is looking much more impressive than Jimena, at least IMO. :lol:

However with that track, the Hawaii still expects some blustery weather or maybe TS conditions from Ignacio, am I right?


TS conditions over high elevations along with heavy rains. Biggest threat will be high waves.
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Re: EPAC: IGNACIO - Hurricane

#292 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Aug 29, 2015 8:54 pm

dexterlabio wrote:A sudden leap of faith as Ignacio is looking much more impressive than Jimena, at least IMO. :lol:

However with that track, the Hawaii still expects some blustery weather or maybe TS conditions from Ignacio, am I right?


On this track it's currently on, if it retains its current intensity then I would expect some TS conditions to be felt.

But shear is expected to kick in soon and how it'll affect the track remains to be seen.

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Some decapitating shear lays ahead.
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#293 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Aug 29, 2015 8:55 pm

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#294 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Aug 29, 2015 8:56 pm

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IJK
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#295 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Aug 29, 2015 8:57 pm

WOW :uarrow:

Pacific on steroids.
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Re: EPAC: IGNACIO - Hurricane

#296 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Aug 29, 2015 8:59 pm

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#297 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Aug 29, 2015 9:02 pm

Old adv:

WTPA33 PHFO 300003
TCPCP3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IGNACIO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122015
200 PM HST SAT AUG 29 2015

...POWERFUL HURRICANE IGNACIO CONTINUES TO APPROACH HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM HST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 147.3W
ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 760 MI...1225 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IGNACIO. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED
FOR ADDITIONAL ISLANDS LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.


FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM HST...0000 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IGNACIO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 147.3 WEST. IGNACIO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...IGNACIO WILL BE PASSING NORTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND ON
MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IGNACIO IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS STILL
POSSIBLE TODAY BEFORE A WEAKENING TREND BEGINS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE BIG ISLAND OF
HAWAII STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS NEAR 6 INCHES MAINLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN...
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IGNACIO WILL ARRIVE ALONG EAST
AND SOUTHEAST FACING SHORES OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. RESULTANT SURF WILL BE LARGE AND POTENTIALLY
LIFE-THREATENING...ESPECIALLY ON THE BIG ISLAND LATER THIS WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD
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Re: EPAC: IGNACIO - Hurricane

#298 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Aug 29, 2015 9:13 pm

Code: Select all

                    * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  IGNACIO     EP122015  08/30/15  00 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND   120   123   121   115   107    90    77    65    58    57    53    48    50
V (KT) LAND      120   123   121   115   107    90    77    65    58    57    53    48    50
V (KT) LGE mod   120   120   114   105    96    81    68    59    53    50    48    47    47
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)         7    10    15    14    14    20    23    24    17    19    21    21     7
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -6    -3     0     1     5     8     6     0     2     3     1     0    -3
SHEAR DIR        248   246   257   248   236   241   211   232   222   227   227   238   253
SST (C)         27.5  27.3  27.2  27.1  27.1  27.3  27.4  27.3  27.1  27.2  27.3  27.1  26.9
POT. INT. (KT)   138   137   136   134   134   136   137   136   134   135   136   134   132
200 MB T (C)   -50.8 -50.8 -51.0 -51.3 -51.0 -51.6 -51.5 -52.1 -51.7 -51.7 -51.5 -51.0 -50.8
TH_E DEV (C)      10    10    10     9     9     9     9     8     8     8     7     7     7
700-500 MB RH     61    57    59    59    59    61    59    60    58    61    61    63    58
MODEL VTX (KT)    26    27    27    27    26    27    27    27    26    28    27    26    25
850 MB ENV VOR    46    42    41    47    52    67    53    56    53    69    59    67    59
200 MB DIV        28     1     3    23    54    15    38    10    13    37    33    25    -6
700-850 TADV       7     6    10     6     8     6    10     7     8    13    19    19    13
LAND (KM)        851   758   670   580   493   341   253   211   228   265   326   440   580
LAT (DEG N)     16.7  17.4  18.1  18.7  19.2  20.1  21.2  22.1  23.0  24.0  25.1  26.1  26.9
LONG(DEG W)    147.3 148.0 148.6 149.3 150.1 151.6 153.1 154.5 155.8 157.3 158.8 160.4 162.1
STM SPEED (KT)     8     9     9     9     9     9     9     8     8     9     8     9     8
HEAT CONTENT      26    27    33    29    22    23    21    16    18    16    10    12    11

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/  7      CX,CY:  -4/  4
  T-12 MAX WIND: 100            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  588  (MEAN=581)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:   5.5 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL         -3.  -6. -10. -14. -22. -31. -38. -45. -51. -55. -58. -60.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG    -1.  -3.  -5.  -6.  -9. -11. -12. -10. -10. -12. -14. -14.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   1.   1.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -1.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR    -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -3.  -2.  -1.   1.   2.
  PERSISTENCE            6.   8.   8.   7.   4.   1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -6.  -7.  -7.  -8.  -7.  -7.  -6.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   1.   1.   0.   1.   2.   1.   0.   3.   2.   0.   0.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   3.   4.   5.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   2.   4.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   0.   0.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.
  GOES PREDICTORS        1.   2.   3.   3.   4.   5.   5.   4.   4.   4.   4.   4.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           3.   1.  -5. -13. -30. -43. -55. -62. -63. -67. -72. -70.

   ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122015 IGNACIO    08/30/15  00 UTC **
           ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):  20.0 Range:-22.0 to  38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  1.5
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :  11.9 Range: 18.7 to   1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.6
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :  15.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.0/  0.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :   5.5 Range: 38.9 to   2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  1.0
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  27.4 Range:  3.6 to  75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.3
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  21.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.2/  0.2
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  99.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  1.0/  0.5
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  68.6 Range: 57.6 to  96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.0
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=     4% is   0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=     3% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=     2% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=     1% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 IGNACIO    08/30/15  00 UTC         ##
   ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS  ##
   ## AHI=  1   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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#299 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Aug 29, 2015 9:39 pm

The eyewall still looks splendid on the latest microwave pass.

Image
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#300 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Aug 29, 2015 9:48 pm

000
WTPZ23 KNHC 300247
TCMEP3

HURRICANE JIMENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015
0300 UTC SUN AUG 30 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 127.5W AT 30/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE 90SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..220NE 180SE 210SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 127.5W AT 30/0300Z
AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 127.0W

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 13.9N 129.3W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 14.7N 131.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 15.4N 134.4W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 35SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 16.0N 136.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 16.9N 139.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 110SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 17.6N 141.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 18.1N 143.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 127.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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