EPAC: IGNACIO - Post-Tropical

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#341 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Sep 01, 2015 5:28 pm

Looks like shear is beginning to slack off. New convection is consolidating in a core band.

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#342 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 01, 2015 9:56 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122015
500 PM HST TUE SEP 01 2015

...IGNACIO BRINGING VERY LARGE AND LOCALLY DAMAGING SURF TO
SOME AREAS OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AS IT PASSES BY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 155.9W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM NNE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM N OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 155.9 WEST. IGNACIO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF IGNACIO IS EXPECTED TO PASS 200 TO 300 MILES
TO THE NORTHEAST OF OAHU AND KAUAI TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...LARGE AND POWERFUL SWELLS GENERATED BY IGNACIO ARE AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...MAINLY ALONG EAST AND
NORTHEAST FACING SHORES. VERY LARGE SURF OF UP TO 20 FEET IN
SOME AREAS IS CAUSING OCEAN OVERWASH AND LEAVING DEBRIS ON SOME
COASTAL ROADS. SURF WILL SLOWLY DECLINE IN SOME AREAS AS IGNACIO
MOVES AWAY...BUT ADDITIONAL LARGE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON
EAST FACING SHORES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO HURRICANE JIMENA.
SEE THE PUBLIC ADVISORY FOR HURRICANE JIMENA AND HIGH SURF WARNINGS
FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD
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Re: EPAC: IGNACIO - Tropical Storm

#343 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 02, 2015 4:58 am

TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122015
1100 PM HST TUE SEP 01 2015

DEEP CONVECTION HAS REMAINED CONFINED MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST
OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER /LLCC/ DURING THE EVENING...WITH
JUST LAYERED CLOUDS AND LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE LLCC.
WHILE AN INTERMITTENT WARM SPOT NEAR THE LLCC HAS BEEN EVIDENT IN
RECENT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES CAME IN AT 3.5/55KT FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES...
AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES AND THE 0600Z SUBJECTIVE CENTER
POSITION ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT IGNACIO SLOWED DOWN SLIGHTLY DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AND THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 310/09 KT. IGNACIO IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING
STEADILY TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS...TOWARD A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FRENCH FRIGATE
SHOALS. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST TRACK...WHICH LIES VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE
TVCN CONSENSUS. BEYOND 48 HOURS...IGNACIO SHOULD ACCELERATE
NORTHWARD AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EAST
OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE RELIABLE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT DURING THIS TIME...AND THE LATEST ECMWF SHIFTED EASTWARD
INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS/TVCN AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE
NEW FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK FOR THOSE FORECAST TIMES...BUT STILL LIES ALONG THE
LEFT EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH
THE ECMWF.

IGNACIO CONTINUES TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...WITH THE LATEST UW-CIMSS AND SHIPS ANALYSES
INDICATING SHEAR MAGNITUDE NEAR 20 KT. THE CYCLONE MAY HAVE A WINDOW
OF SOMEWHAT LESS HOSTILE CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS...WHEN SHEAR MAY LESSEN SOMEWHAT AND THE FORECAST TRACK
WILL REMAIN OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 27C. THE NEW
INTENSITY FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN IGNACIO AT 60 KT DURING THIS
TIME...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM AND ICON CONSENSUS...
BUT BELOW THE SHIPS WHICH BRINGS IGNACIO BACK TO MINIMAL HURRICANE
INTENSITY IN 24 HOURS. A SLOW WEAKENING TREND SHOULD COMMENCE BY 48
HOURS...WHEN IGNACIO WILL BE MOVING NORTHWARD OVER COOLER WATERS.
IGNACIO MAY BEGIN TO UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT MOVES NORTH OF 40N AND ACROSS INCREASINGLY
COLD WATERS OF THE NORTH PACIFIC. WILL MAINTAIN IGNACIO AS A
TROPICAL SYSTEM THROUGH 120 HOURS FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE...IN
COORDINATION WITH THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER IN WASHINGTON DC.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 25.2N 156.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 25.9N 157.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 27.2N 159.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 28.4N 161.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 29.7N 163.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 33.6N 164.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 38.5N 165.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 07/0600Z 44.0N 163.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER JACOBSON
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#344 Postby Krit-tonkla » Wed Sep 02, 2015 11:40 am

May become a hurricane again.

TPPZ02 PGTW 021502

A. TROPICAL STORM 12E (IGNACIO)

B. 02/1430Z

C. 25.93N

D. 157.22W

E. ONE/GOES15

F. T4.0/4.0/S0.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. 8NM OW EYE SURROUNDED BY OW
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 4.0. PT AND MET
AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


UEHARA
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#345 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Sep 02, 2015 9:05 pm

ATCF data for 00Z seems to indicate that it indeed will be for the next advisory. Listed at 65 kt there.
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#346 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Sep 02, 2015 9:06 pm

EP, 12, 2015090300, , BEST, 0, 271N, 1590W, 65, 982, HU, 34, NEQ, 210, 210, 100, 150, 1010, 200, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, IGNACIO, D,
EP, 12, 2015090300, , BEST, 0, 271N, 1590W, 65, 982, HU, 50, NEQ, 90, 80, 70, 90, 1010, 200, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, IGNACIO, D,
EP, 12, 2015090300, , BEST, 0, 271N, 1590W, 65, 982, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 15, 15, 20, 1010, 200, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, IGNACIO, D,
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Re: EPAC: IGNACIO - Hurricane

#347 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 02, 2015 10:07 pm

Hurricane once again.
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#348 Postby Hammy » Thu Sep 03, 2015 12:17 am

This seems like a strange place to have a strengthening hurricane. :eek:
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Re:

#349 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Sep 03, 2015 12:38 am

Hammy wrote:This seems like a strange place to have a strengthening hurricane. :eek:


El Nino I suppose.
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#350 Postby terstorm1012 » Thu Sep 03, 2015 6:45 am

or the Weird Pacific Blob. Cliff Mass (a meteorologist in the Seattle area) has a few things to say about that. http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/
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#351 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Sep 03, 2015 7:55 am

spiral wrote:http://i.imgur.com/72Z1V1I.gif

You guy's must be seeing something i cant .Don't appear to be a strengthening hurricane looks a weakening TS just sailing into its grave yard just my 2 cents.


It's convection is quite shallow. It's not your traditional hurricane. Comparable to some seen at high latitudes in the Atlantic though,
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#352 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Sep 03, 2015 7:58 am

WTPA43 PHFO 030856 CCA
TCDCP3

HURRICANE IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 38...CORRECTED
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122015
1100 PM HST WED SEP 02 2015

THE IGNACIO EYE FEATURE BECAME CLOUD COVERED JUST BEFORE THE 0600
UTC ANALYSIS CYCLE...BUT THE LLCC REMAINS RATHER EASY TO DISCERN
USING ANIMATION. THE CDO WHICH APPEARS TO BE FORMING NOW IS ABOUT 60
NM WIDE AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY WEAK BANDING FEATURES TO THE NORTH AND
SOUTH. OUTFLOW APPEARS TO BE HINDERED TO THE NORTHWEST AND
SOUTHEAST. OBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGED
FROM 3.5...55 KT...FROM SAB TO 4.0...65 KT...FROM PHFO AND JTWC.
UW-CIMSS ADT INTENSITY WAS 67 KT. GIVEN THE RECENT EYE FEATURE...WE
WILL MAINTAIN AN INITIAL INTENSITY AT 65 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/12 KT AS IGNACIO CONTINUES TO MOVE
NORTHWEST INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. OVERALL
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THIS AFTERNOON. TRACK
GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 72 HOURS...SPREADING A
BIT AFTERWARDS BUT DEPICTING A RECURVING PATH THROUGH THE FIVE DAY
FORECAST PERIOD. THE FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS ONE
AND SITS COMFORTABLY WITHIN THE TIGHT GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH 48
HOURS. SINCE IGNACIO WILL LIKELY BE EXTRATROPICAL ON DAYS FOUR AND
FIVE...THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER...OPC...WAS CONSULTED FOR
FORECAST POSITIONS ON THOSE DAYS. THE 96 AND 120 HOUR POSITIONS
FOLLOW THE UKMET SOLUTION AS PER OPC.

LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST THROUGH 24 HOURS AS IGNACIO
MOVES NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS ANOMALOUSLY WARM WATER WITHIN AN
ENVIRONMENT CONTAINING LESS THAN 20 KT OF SHEAR. SSTS BEGIN TO DROP
NOTICEABLY ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK AFTER 36 HOURS...PROMPTING A
GRADUAL FORECAST WEAKENING AFTERWARDS. IGNACIO WILL LIKELY BEGIN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AT 72 HOURS...OVER 22 DEGREE CELSIUS
WATER...THEN BECOME COMPLETELY EXTRATROPICAL AT 96 AND 120 HOURS.
THE 45 KT INTENSITY AT 96 AND 120 HOURS WAS COORDINATED WITH OPC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 28.2N 160.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 29.2N 162.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 31.4N 163.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 33.8N 164.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 36.3N 164.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 41.6N 163.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
96H 07/0600Z 46.8N 160.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 08/0600Z 51.7N 146.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER POWELL
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#353 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Sep 03, 2015 8:13 am

TXPN42 PHFO 031152
TCSNP2

CENTRAL PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1150 UTC THU SEP 03 2015

A. Hurricane Ignacio.

B. 03/1130Z.

C. 28.4°N.

D. 161.0°W.

E. Goes-15.

F. T3.5/4.0/d1.0/24 hrs.

G. Ir/eir.

H. Remarks: Wrap of .95 on log10 spiral yields DT of 3.5. PT and met agree. Final T based on DT.

I. Addl positions nil.

$$

Reynes.
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#354 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Sep 03, 2015 8:13 am

I'd go 60, but

EP, 12, 2015090312, , BEST, 0, 284N, 1611W, 65, 983, HU, 34, NEQ, 210, 210, 100, 150, 1010, 200, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, IGNACIO, D,
EP, 12, 2015090312, , BEST, 0, 284N, 1611W, 65, 983, HU, 50, NEQ, 90, 80, 70, 90, 1010, 200, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, IGNACIO, D,
EP, 12, 2015090312, , BEST, 0, 284N, 1611W, 65, 983, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 15, 15, 20, 1010, 200, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, IGNACIO, D,
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#355 Postby Alyono » Thu Sep 03, 2015 8:56 am

tht eye has become better defined. Without a doubt, this is a cane
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#356 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Sep 03, 2015 9:17 am

Agree with Ignacio being a hurricane again. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if it were strengthening a little beyond the entry level category one right now.

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#357 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Sep 03, 2015 9:39 am

ADT is reading low because it's stuck on the curved band pattern. Going by a subjective Dvorak analysis on the 1400Z GOES 15 frame, a dark grey eye embedded in medium grey would yield a T# of 4.5. The light grey almost has a full ring too, and if the eye becomes fully embedded in the light grey in the future, that would be good for T5.0 (although it's just as possible that the medium grey ring could thin down enough to drop a subjective analysis to a T4.0).

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Last edited by 1900hurricane on Thu Sep 03, 2015 9:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#358 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Sep 03, 2015 10:00 am

No problem! Weaker convective hurricanes in the subtropics is mostly a northern hemisphere thing (and if you want to get more specific than that, most are seen in the Atlantic). Not sure I can remember seeing a storm like this in the southern hemisphere.
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Re: EPAC: IGNACIO - Tropical Storm

#359 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 03, 2015 4:11 pm

Down to Tropical Storm.

TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 40
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122015
1100 AM HST THU SEP 03 2015

THE INNER CORE STRUCTURE OF IGNACIO IS STARTING TO DETERIORATE ONCE
AGAIN...AS SHOWN BY AN SSMI PASS AT 1408 UTC AND AN SSMI/S AT 1456
UTC. SINCE THEN...THE SHORT-LIVED INTERMITTENT EYE FEATURE HAS
FILLED ONCE AGAIN. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 3.0 FROM
UW-CIMSS ADT...3.5 FROM SAB AND JTWC...AND 4.0 AT PHFO. HAVE
LOWERED IGNACIO BACK TO 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF THESE ESTIMATES.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/11...BUT THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF THE
ANTICIPATED NORTHWARD TURN...OR A TEMPORARY WOBBLE. THERE IS NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OF THE PAST FEW
DAYS...AND THE TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
MOST OF THE FORECAST. OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE WILL PICK UP THE SYSTEM AND DRIVE IT
NORTHWARD TOWARD HIGHER LATITUDES. AS IT GAINS LATITUDE...IT WILL
ENCOUNTER STRONGER WESTERLIES WHICH WILL PROPEL IT EASTWARD ACROSS
THE CHILLY WATERS OF THE NORTH PACIFIC. SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MODERATE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ONLY GRADUALLY DECREASE...SO IGNACIO IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
INTENSITY OR ONLY VERY SLOWLY SPIN DOWN IN THE FIRST 48 HOURS.
AFTERWARD...BAROCLINIC INFLUENCES MAY HELP TO SUSTAIN THE SYSTEM AS
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED WITH IGNACIO MOVING OVER
SUB-20C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AT DAYS 4 AND 5 THE FORECAST
TRACK IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE AND MORE IN LINE
WITH THE ECMWF GUIDANCE.

FORECAST TRACK...INTENSITY...AND RADII FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 WERE
COORDINATED WITH THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER IN WASHINGTON D.C.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 29.4N 162.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 30.7N 163.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 33.2N 164.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 36.1N 164.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 39.1N 164.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 44.6N 163.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
96H 07/1800Z 49.2N 152.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 08/1800Z 52.5N 137.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD
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Re: EPAC: IGNACIO - Tropical Storm

#360 Postby Iune » Fri Sep 04, 2015 11:28 am

WTPA43 PHFO 041440
TCDCP3

HURRICANE IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 43
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122015
500 AM HST FRI SEP 04 2015

ANIMATION SHOWS THE LLCC LIKELY REMAINS JUST ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF DEEPEST CONVECTION...MAKING EARLIER FIX CONFIDENCE DEPENDENT ON A
PINHOLE EYE FEATURE A GOOD BET. IGNACIO DOES NOT HAVE THE SATELLITE
PRESENTATION OF A HEALTHY TROPICAL SYSTEM. DEEP CONVECTION AND
ALMOST ALL ASSOCIATED LAYERED CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DISPLACED NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC BY SOUTHWEST SHEAR RANGING FROM 11
KT...ACCORDING TO SHIPS...TO 25 KT...ACCORDING TO UW-CIMSS. THE
NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE LAYERED CLOUD CANOPY IS BEGINNING TO MERGE
WITH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED FROM LAST TIME...RANGING
FROM 3.5...55 KT...FROM PHFO TO 4.5...77 KT...FROM UW-CIMSS ADT.
JTWC AND SAB ONCE AGAIN TAKE THE MIDDLE GROUND WITH 4.0...65 KT.
GIVEN THIS CI SPREAD...WE WILL KEEP 65 KT AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY
FOR THIS ADVISORY.

IGNACIO CONTINUES MOVING AT A STEADY RATE TOWARD THE NORTH
NORTHWEST...OR 335/11 KT. TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAIN
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...AND FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE
LAST EVENING. THE FORECAST TRACK IS THEREFORE PRETTY MUCH UNCHANGED
AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.
BETWEEN 36 AND 48 HOURS...WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE CORE OF IGNACIO
WILL BEGIN TO MERGE WITH THE FRONT PRESSING IN FROM ITS WEST. THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTING THE FRONT WILL THEN DRIVE IGNACIO
FARTHER NORTHWARD AND STRENGTHENING WESTERLIES WILL CAUSE AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. INSTEAD OF
IMMEDIATELY DISSIPATING...IGNACIO WILL BENEFIT FROM INCREASING
BAROCLINIC EFFECTS THE FARTHER NORTH IT GOES...RESULTING IN COMPLETE
TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL STORM LOW AT 72 HOURS. IGNACIO IS
THEN FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT RACES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE MAINLAND...DISSIPATING BY DAY FIVE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA.

THE IGNACIO FORECAST TRACK...INTENSITY...AND WIND RADII FOR DAYS
THREE AND FOUR...AND DISSIPATION ON DAY FIVE...WERE COORDINATED WITH
THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER IN WASHINGTON D.C.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 32.4N 164.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 34.2N 164.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 36.9N 165.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 39.9N 164.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 42.7N 163.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
72H 07/1200Z 47.0N 157.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 08/1200Z 50.6N 141.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER POWELL
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