EPAC: IGNACIO - Post-Tropical

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Kingarabian
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#81 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 26, 2015 1:50 pm

12z HWRF also shifts south.
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#82 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 26, 2015 1:57 pm

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Going to be a pretty looking medium sized hurricane.

Anyways, I think either the GFS is going to shift back south or the Euro will shift back north.

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#83 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Aug 26, 2015 2:59 pm

26/1800 UTC 11.9N 136.0W T3.5/3.5 IGNACIO -- East Pacific
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#84 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Aug 26, 2015 3:00 pm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 26 AUG 2015 Time : 190000 UTC
Lat : 12:12:26 N Lon : 135:41:50 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.1 / 987.8mb/ 67.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.1 4.3 4.3

Center Temp : -74.1C Cloud Region Temp : -72.5C
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#85 Postby Alyono » Wed Aug 26, 2015 3:13 pm

While Erika has the potential to be the greatest USA Threat if it really blows up in the Bahamas, this is the more sure fire USA threat. Could be a cat 2 near the islands, though the track is very uncertain
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#86 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Aug 26, 2015 3:35 pm

Major difference between the 12z GFS and 12z ECMWF is that the GFS moves this NW after getting picked up by a trough well to its WNW (looks semi-fishy) while the ECMWF has this interacting with Kilo (might be far-fetched).
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Re:

#87 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 26, 2015 4:23 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:Major difference between the 12z GFS and 12z ECMWF is that the GFS moves this NW after getting picked up by a trough well to its WNW (looks semi-fishy) while the ECMWF has this interacting with Kilo (might be far-fetched).


I think what the Euro was originally showing is about right. Looks like it'll be too strong to continue on West and miss Hawaii to the south and not much weakness to the north for a safe Julio type exit. Thinking a Guillermo type track.
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#88 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 26, 2015 5:20 pm

18z GFS continues to recurve it. Has it really strong close to Hawaii.
Last edited by Kingarabian on Wed Aug 26, 2015 5:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#89 Postby Alyono » Wed Aug 26, 2015 5:49 pm

also shows it intensifying up until it gets very near the islands.

This time, an intense hurricane from the east is POSSIBLE. Not saying it will happen, but we cannot rule out the possibility
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#90 Postby WeatherGuesser » Wed Aug 26, 2015 5:59 pm

Sorry, but it's still too far out and HI is such a tiny speck.

Even at that, I'm wondering about a 1-2 punch with the other one a few days behind it.
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Re:

#91 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 26, 2015 6:22 pm

WeatherGuesser wrote:Sorry, but it's still too far out and HI is such a tiny speck.

Even at that, I'm wondering about a 1-2 punch with the other one a few days behind it.


I agree. If the track by the NHC/CPHC remains the same on Friday, then I'll start getting worried.

But the notion that the worst hurricanes can only come from the south won't hold true for long. Too many threats in the last 8 years coming from the east.

I think Jimena is almost a set in stone, shoe-in re-curve.


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Re: Re:

#92 Postby Alyono » Wed Aug 26, 2015 7:03 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
WeatherGuesser wrote:Sorry, but it's still too far out and HI is such a tiny speck.

Even at that, I'm wondering about a 1-2 punch with the other one a few days behind it.


I agree. If the track by the NHC/CPHC remains the same on Friday, then I'll start getting worried.

But the notion that the worst hurricanes can only come from the south won't hold true for long. Too many threats in the last 8 years coming from the east.

I think Jimena is almost a set in stone, shoe-in re-curve.


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the unusually warm water is allowing east threats this year
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Re:

#93 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Aug 26, 2015 7:07 pm

WeatherGuesser wrote:Sorry, but it's still too far out and HI is such a tiny speck.

Even at that, I'm wondering about a 1-2 punch with the other one a few days behind it.


Highly unlikely. 13E may not make it to the CPAC even.
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#94 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 26, 2015 7:43 pm

18z HWRF shifts slightly east, slower, but stronger.
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#95 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 26, 2015 7:58 pm

TAFB supports a hurricane:

Code: Select all

EP, 12, 201508270000,  10, DVTS,         CI,  , 1190N, 13650W,      , 2,  65, 2,  987, 2, DVRK,    ,     ,     ,     ,     ,     ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,    ,    , E,  TAFB,  JA,   VI, 3, 4040 /////,      ,   , GOES15,  CSC, T, Very cold top convection over and around the center.


SAB:

Code: Select all

  27/0000 UTC   11.5N    136.8W       T3.5/3.5         IGNACIO -- East Pacific
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#96 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 26, 2015 8:11 pm

I'd upgrade to a hurricane based on this:

[img]http://i.imgur.com/Ast7WMw.jpg[img]
Last edited by Kingarabian on Wed Aug 26, 2015 9:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#97 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Aug 26, 2015 8:28 pm

@TropicalTidbits: Wednesday Evening video discussion on Erika and Ignacio: http://t.co/3ue0SASH8w
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#98 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Aug 26, 2015 8:29 pm

EP, 12, 2015082700, , BEST, 0, 120N, 1370W, 65, 992, HU, 34, NEQ, 50, 50, 50, 50, 1008, 200, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, IGNACIO, D,
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#99 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Aug 26, 2015 8:30 pm

Code: Select all

             ----- Current Analysis -----
     Date :  27 AUG 2015    Time :   003000 UTC
      Lat :   12:01:51 N     Lon :  136:45:13 W

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                4.4 / 981.9mb/ 74.6kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                4.4     4.4     4.4
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#100 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 26, 2015 9:29 pm

Pretty looking hurricane, ready to take off:

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