ATL: ERIKA Remnants - Discussion

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ATL: ERIKA Remnants - Discussion

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 22, 2015 7:24 pm

Finnally we have the invest for this wave.

AL, 98, 2015082200, , BEST, 0, 133N, 213W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
AL, 98, 2015082206, , BEST, 0, 133N, 231W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
AL, 98, 2015082212, , BEST, 0, 133N, 253W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
AL, 98, 2015082218, , BEST, 0, 133N, 274W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
AL, 98, 2015082300, , BEST, 0, 133N, 295W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 350, 300, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST
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#2 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Aug 22, 2015 7:34 pm

8pm TWO.

A tropical wave located over the eastern Atlantic a few hundred
miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands is currently
producing only limited shower and thunderstorm activity. However,
slow development of this system is possible during the next several
days while the wave moves quickly westward at 20 to 25 mph over the
tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

Image
Last edited by TheStormExpert on Sat Aug 22, 2015 7:40 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Duscussion

#3 Postby Blown Away » Sat Aug 22, 2015 7:37 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Duscussion

#4 Postby PTrackerLA » Sat Aug 22, 2015 7:43 pm

Nice something to track this upcoming week as well. So much for totally dead MDR this season :wink: .
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#5 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Aug 22, 2015 7:46 pm

Doesn't have much convection at the moment.
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#6 Postby BigB0882 » Sat Aug 22, 2015 9:24 pm

Did Danny do anything to help with all the crazy dry air or will this face the same battle?
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#7 Postby panamatropicwatch » Sat Aug 22, 2015 9:53 pm

This system had a lot more convection earlier today.
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#8 Postby Hammy » Sat Aug 22, 2015 10:55 pm

Finally becomes an invest just in time for the convection to weaken...
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Re:

#9 Postby ninel conde » Sat Aug 22, 2015 10:57 pm

spiral wrote:One thing you need to aware of is these posts do appear on google search outrageous posts such as the system don't even qualify as TS don't wash well with credibility.


It doesnt come close to even a depression just yet.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#10 Postby Brent » Sun Aug 23, 2015 12:50 am

CODE RED

A tropical wave located over the eastern Atlantic more than 500
miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands is producing an area
of showers and thunderstorms. Some development of this system is
possible during the next several days while the wave moves quickly
westward at 20 to 25 mph over the tropical Atlantic Ocean, and a
tropical depression could form by the middle of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#11 Postby YoshiMike » Sun Aug 23, 2015 2:03 am

Lets hope it becomes a perfectly organized storm, but one that does not hurt anybody. I love tracking a storm with that classic hurricane look. Way too early to even attempt to see where it goes or how strong it'll be yet even with models IMO. But hey something to track this week.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#12 Postby Nederlander » Sun Aug 23, 2015 4:46 am

Convection on the increase...

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#13 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 23, 2015 7:01 am

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms are associated with a low
pressure area located about 500 miles west of the Cape Verde
Islands. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by
mid-week while the wave moves quickly westward at around 20 mph. By
late this week, atmospheric conditions could become less favorable
for tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#14 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 23, 2015 8:08 am

12z Best Track:

AL, 98, 2015082312, , BEST, 0, 137N, 344W, 25, 1009, WV
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#15 Postby Alyono » Sun Aug 23, 2015 8:14 am

no organization at all. Given the fast motion, this one could have SAL related shear problems. 70% seems too high to me
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#16 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 23, 2015 8:21 am

Yeah look pretty pathetic now, where it gets interesting is in about 4 or 5 days when it gets in the vicinity of the Leewards, Puerto Rico area (or a little north thereof) and slows down some. The ECMWF and UKMET both blow this thing up and show a possible recurve. May even have chance of becoming a major looking long-term at the ECMWF runs (looking 7+ days out).
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#17 Postby ronjon » Sun Aug 23, 2015 8:30 am

Yeah think it'll be tough racing at 25 mph to organize also. GFS doesn't develop it till way down the road near the Bahamas.
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#18 Postby NDG » Sun Aug 23, 2015 9:30 am

Next Major Hurricane in the making.
I busted big time when I said no tropical systems will form during the month of August in the MDR lol.
Maybe this is sign for what is to come for next year.
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Re:

#19 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 23, 2015 9:35 am

NDG wrote:Next Major Hurricane in the making.
I busted big time when I said no tropical systems will form during the month of August in the MDR lol.
Maybe this is sign for what is to come for next year.


A repeat of the 1997 very strong El Nino year ERIKA that was cat 4?
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#20 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Aug 23, 2015 10:31 am

This is under the convection, it has potential and needs to be watched in the northern Lesser antilles and from the The Bahamas and possibly Bermuda if the ridge doesn't build any and if it builds some then the Carolinas to Atlantic Canada and or the NEUS so it will probably be another long tracker

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