ATL: ERIKA Remnants - Discussion

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Sanibel
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Re: ATL: ERIKA Remnants - Discussion

#3421 Postby Sanibel » Thu Sep 03, 2015 9:10 pm

Think maybe the shear from that shortwave wiped this one out.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA Remnants - Discussion

#3422 Postby LarryWx » Thu Sep 03, 2015 10:22 pm

Sanibel wrote:Think maybe the shear from that shortwave wiped this one out.



Convection finally appears to be building again near the LLC fwiw. I thought there would have been more out there earlier this evening.

Edit: The 0Z Crazy Uncle (CMC) drops the 12Z's outlier solution of a NC TS and has a weaker system that passes safely offshore NC. NC can rest easy now lol.
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#3423 Postby LarryWx » Fri Sep 04, 2015 7:52 am

The convection continued to increase overnight near the LLC as expected by the models and Sanibel due I assume to DMAX, maybe some help from the Gulf Stream, and helped by a temporary reduction in shear.
The very recent vis pics clearly show there still is a rather tight LLC at the far western edge of the convection now located a little over 100 miles E of NE FL as models had progged moving slowly SE. The 0Z 6Z does show fwiw a temporary drop in shear below 10 knots this morning but don't be deceived. It also shows it picking back up to over 10 knots by early afternoon and to over 20 knots by this evening. So, I'm expecting the convection near the center to decrease today as shear increases and we get to DMIN.

http://www.aviationweather.gov/adds/sat ... &itype=vis
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#3424 Postby NDG » Fri Sep 04, 2015 8:00 am

I wouldn't say that there's still a defined LLC left from her remnants, is probably no more than a vorticity above the surface with perhaps a broad elongated circulation at the surface.
The pressures did fall nicely in the area during the past 24 hrs but still remain fairly high.

Regarding shear it is still near 20 knots over it as depicted by UW but even a bigger killer is the analyzed mid level shear.
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#3425 Postby LarryWx » Fri Sep 04, 2015 8:08 am

^Yeah, the circulation may be a little above the surface. That's why I called it a defined low level center (LLC) to play it safe rather than defined surface low center. Regardless, winds at the surface continue to be light as far as I can tell.
I continue to expect no TC formation, which is consistent with the models, due to too much shear overall. The outflow boundaries that are currently there are also consistent with no development.
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#3426 Postby LarryWx » Fri Sep 04, 2015 9:31 am

With a full loop now of vis pics, one can see that the LLC (not necessarily as distinct all of the way down to the sfc as just above the sfc as noted by NDG) is clearly still there and with convection over it and on the eastern side of it though there are what look like outflow boundaries flowing outward from that area. The LLC looks like it is about 125 miles E of St. Augustine and is apparently drifting very slowly SE or ESE though motion is just an educated guess and is far from certain. It is doing about what GFS/Euro model consensus has been showing and I still expect no TC to form despite this impressively durable low level vortex. Per models' increasing shear forecast and keeping in mind DMIN timing, I'm educatedly guessing it will have reduced convection near it by sometime this afternoon. One can still see there is westerly shear trying to tug the convection to the east of the LLC even now.

http://www.aviationweather.gov/adds/sat ... &itype=vis
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Re: ATL: ERIKA Remnants - Discussion

#3427 Postby NDG » Fri Sep 04, 2015 11:37 am

:uarrow: I don't see any evidence of an LLC left, nothing more than a broad and elongated weak circulation left behind, time to let this thread go :)
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Re: ATL: ERIKA Remnants - Discussion

#3428 Postby LarryWx » Fri Sep 04, 2015 11:53 am

NDG wrote::uarrow: I don't see any evidence of an LLC left, nothing more than a broad and elongated weak circulation left behind, time to let this thread go :)


Looking at the latest vis loop showing the convection reducing during the midday hours (as expected) and allowing a clearer view to the surface, the LLC does appear to be much less distinct than earlier today and certainly vs yesterday's vis loop, which I still have up for comparison purposes. I noticed a lot of outflow boundaries this morning and am wondering if that helped lead to it losing structure.

http://www.aviationweather.gov/adds/sat ... &itype=vis
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Re: ATL: ERIKA Remnants - Discussion

#3429 Postby Sanibel » Fri Sep 04, 2015 12:54 pm

Still there. Weak and badly sheared.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA Remnants - Discussion

#3430 Postby NDG » Fri Sep 04, 2015 1:07 pm

:uarrow: There's no LLC left, I am not sure what are you looking at that you think is an LLC.
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