ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

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Re: ATL: ERIKA Remnants - Discussion

#3301 Postby tailgater » Mon Aug 31, 2015 3:08 pm

might not being going anywhere fast.
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#3302 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Aug 31, 2015 3:11 pm

:uarrow: whatever tries to come of this will not be going anywhere fast. Big ridge blocking it from going out to sea.
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#3303 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 31, 2015 3:13 pm

northjaxpro wrote::uarrow: whatever tries to come of this will not be going anywhere fast. Big ridge blocking it from going out to sea.



yeah its actually currently in a little bit of a cull in the low levels.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA Remnants - Discussion

#3304 Postby LarryWx » Mon Aug 31, 2015 3:14 pm

NDG wrote:
wxman57 wrote:That's not Erika's remnants off the GA coast in the ECMWF. The EC takes what's left of Erika across the SC/NC coasts then north of Bermuda, developing it into a large subtropical storm there. It's the biggest low on the 192hr map above, NE of Bermuda.


Latest 12z Euro clearly shows Erika's vorticity getting stuck off of the Carolinas's/GA coast through the next few days as shown on the image posted by Gatorcane.


IF the true remnants of Erika were to get into the Atlantic somewhat intact and redevelop, is there any chance that it would called Erika? I'm assuming not but am wondering.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA Remnants - Discussion

#3305 Postby NDG » Mon Aug 31, 2015 3:15 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
drezee wrote:
NDG wrote:Definitely a broad circulation still left from Erika but pressures if anything have risen during the past 24hrs.

I care more about relative pressures for this type of spin-up...


IF there is any pressure fall happening near that weak circ and convection it would not translate to any reporting station that not right near it. it takes time this thing has only started like 6 to 10 hours ago.


I disagree, pressure readings in around the area surrounding a broad low can give an indication if It is is organizing.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA Remnants - Discussion

#3306 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 31, 2015 3:21 pm

NDG wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
drezee wrote:I care more about relative pressures for this type of spin-up...


IF there is any pressure fall happening near that weak circ and convection it would not translate to any reporting station that not right near it. it takes time this thing has only started like 6 to 10 hours ago.


I disagree, pressure readings in around the area surrounding a broad low can give an indication if It is is organizing.



of course they do but what I was saying is it does not happen right away.. you can have falling pressures in a localized area but wont see any change in the surround areas instantaneously. for instance .. drop a rock in a pond .. takes time for the ripples to propagate out. meaning if the center of this thing in that deeper convection started having noticeable pressures falls it would not show right away unless the reporting station was very close..
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#3307 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 31, 2015 3:22 pm

key west radar is looking a little more interesting.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA Remnants - Discussion

#3308 Postby sponger » Mon Aug 31, 2015 3:28 pm

Time for an Invest!
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#3309 Postby tropicwatch » Mon Aug 31, 2015 3:35 pm

I think circulation showing up better on radar out of Tampa.
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#3310 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 31, 2015 3:39 pm

panamatropicwatch wrote:I think circulation showing up better on radar out of Tampa.



not worried about that weak vort that was visible earlier.. its the convective pattern coming from key west. its not at the surface since we are looking at about 10k feet. but any substantial surface circ will organize where there is convection thats the area to look at..
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#3311 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 31, 2015 5:12 pm

key west radar showing a developing low to mid level circ pretty clear now. very interesting..
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Re: ATL: ERIKA Remnants - Discussion

#3312 Postby CronkPSU » Mon Aug 31, 2015 5:18 pm

which radar site are you using Aric? Glad to see you back, you always bring a lot of knowledge to the board that us amateurs really appreciate
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Re: ATL: ERIKA Remnants - Discussion

#3313 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 31, 2015 5:19 pm

CronkPSU wrote:which radar site are you using Aric? Glad to see you back, you always bring a lot of knowledge to the board that us amateurs really appreciate


Key west.. its not all that impressive but something to watch..
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Re: ATL: ERIKA Remnants - Discussion

#3314 Postby tolakram » Mon Aug 31, 2015 5:26 pm

Saved radar loop out of Tampa
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Re: ATL: ERIKA Remnants - Discussion

#3315 Postby N2FSU » Mon Aug 31, 2015 5:48 pm

Local Met here in Tallahassee said it's hard to tell if it's a low level or mid level circulation, but he doesn't expect it to develop.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA Remnants - Discussion

#3316 Postby ronjon » Mon Aug 31, 2015 5:49 pm

Convection really expanding in SE GOM. Obvious circulation on Radar. No mention by the NHC? Probably deserves INVEST status now.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA Remnants - Discussion

#3317 Postby tailgater » Mon Aug 31, 2015 6:05 pm

Speed it up and uncheck all but radar and counties.
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes
or
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes
Last edited by tailgater on Mon Aug 31, 2015 6:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA Remnants - Discussion

#3318 Postby CronkPSU » Mon Aug 31, 2015 6:29 pm

not looking as impressive now but also don't see it moving anywhere anytime soon....

but we are getting an amazing thunderstorm out of it here in Eastern Orange country
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Re: ATL: ERIKA Remnants - Discussion

#3319 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 31, 2015 6:35 pm

CronkPSU wrote:not looking as impressive now but also don't see it moving anywhere anytime soon....

but we are getting an amazing thunderstorm out of it here in Eastern Orange country


well yeah whatever it is or will or wont become is slowly moving north ...
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Re: ATL: ERIKA Remnants - Discussion

#3320 Postby BobHarlem » Mon Aug 31, 2015 7:12 pm

18Z GFS dropped this idea.
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