ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10348
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

Re: ATL: ERIKA Remnants - Discussion

#3421 Postby Sanibel » Thu Sep 03, 2015 9:10 pm

Think maybe the shear from that shortwave wiped this one out.
0 likes   

LarryWx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5686
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: ATL: ERIKA Remnants - Discussion

#3422 Postby LarryWx » Thu Sep 03, 2015 10:22 pm

Sanibel wrote:Think maybe the shear from that shortwave wiped this one out.



Convection finally appears to be building again near the LLC fwiw. I thought there would have been more out there earlier this evening.

Edit: The 0Z Crazy Uncle (CMC) drops the 12Z's outlier solution of a NC TS and has a weaker system that passes safely offshore NC. NC can rest easy now lol.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

LarryWx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5686
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

#3423 Postby LarryWx » Fri Sep 04, 2015 7:52 am

The convection continued to increase overnight near the LLC as expected by the models and Sanibel due I assume to DMAX, maybe some help from the Gulf Stream, and helped by a temporary reduction in shear.
The very recent vis pics clearly show there still is a rather tight LLC at the far western edge of the convection now located a little over 100 miles E of NE FL as models had progged moving slowly SE. The 0Z 6Z does show fwiw a temporary drop in shear below 10 knots this morning but don't be deceived. It also shows it picking back up to over 10 knots by early afternoon and to over 20 knots by this evening. So, I'm expecting the convection near the center to decrease today as shear increases and we get to DMIN.

http://www.aviationweather.gov/adds/sat ... &itype=vis
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 14933
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

#3424 Postby NDG » Fri Sep 04, 2015 8:00 am

I wouldn't say that there's still a defined LLC left from her remnants, is probably no more than a vorticity above the surface with perhaps a broad elongated circulation at the surface.
The pressures did fall nicely in the area during the past 24 hrs but still remain fairly high.

Regarding shear it is still near 20 knots over it as depicted by UW but even a bigger killer is the analyzed mid level shear.
0 likes   

LarryWx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5686
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

#3425 Postby LarryWx » Fri Sep 04, 2015 8:08 am

^Yeah, the circulation may be a little above the surface. That's why I called it a defined low level center (LLC) to play it safe rather than defined surface low center. Regardless, winds at the surface continue to be light as far as I can tell.
I continue to expect no TC formation, which is consistent with the models, due to too much shear overall. The outflow boundaries that are currently there are also consistent with no development.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

LarryWx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5686
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

#3426 Postby LarryWx » Fri Sep 04, 2015 9:31 am

With a full loop now of vis pics, one can see that the LLC (not necessarily as distinct all of the way down to the sfc as just above the sfc as noted by NDG) is clearly still there and with convection over it and on the eastern side of it though there are what look like outflow boundaries flowing outward from that area. The LLC looks like it is about 125 miles E of St. Augustine and is apparently drifting very slowly SE or ESE though motion is just an educated guess and is far from certain. It is doing about what GFS/Euro model consensus has been showing and I still expect no TC to form despite this impressively durable low level vortex. Per models' increasing shear forecast and keeping in mind DMIN timing, I'm educatedly guessing it will have reduced convection near it by sometime this afternoon. One can still see there is westerly shear trying to tug the convection to the east of the LLC even now.

http://www.aviationweather.gov/adds/sat ... &itype=vis
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 14933
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: ERIKA Remnants - Discussion

#3427 Postby NDG » Fri Sep 04, 2015 11:37 am

:uarrow: I don't see any evidence of an LLC left, nothing more than a broad and elongated weak circulation left behind, time to let this thread go :)
0 likes   

LarryWx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5686
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: ATL: ERIKA Remnants - Discussion

#3428 Postby LarryWx » Fri Sep 04, 2015 11:53 am

NDG wrote::uarrow: I don't see any evidence of an LLC left, nothing more than a broad and elongated weak circulation left behind, time to let this thread go :)


Looking at the latest vis loop showing the convection reducing during the midday hours (as expected) and allowing a clearer view to the surface, the LLC does appear to be much less distinct than earlier today and certainly vs yesterday's vis loop, which I still have up for comparison purposes. I noticed a lot of outflow boundaries this morning and am wondering if that helped lead to it losing structure.

http://www.aviationweather.gov/adds/sat ... &itype=vis
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10348
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

Re: ATL: ERIKA Remnants - Discussion

#3429 Postby Sanibel » Fri Sep 04, 2015 12:54 pm

Still there. Weak and badly sheared.
0 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 14933
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: ERIKA Remnants - Discussion

#3430 Postby NDG » Fri Sep 04, 2015 1:07 pm

:uarrow: There's no LLC left, I am not sure what are you looking at that you think is an LLC.
0 likes   


Return to “2015”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 29 guests