ATL: ERIKA Remnants - Discussion

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LarryWx
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#3361 Postby LarryWx » Tue Sep 01, 2015 7:11 pm

The 18Z GFS is another run that brings the remnants of Erika slowly offshore the SE US, where it then gets stuck below a large upper high til about a week from now. Though SST's are largely in the mid-80's there, shear levels look like they'd be only marginally conducive for tropical development early next week. So, even if the 18Z GFS is correct, I'd consider tropical development only a low probability at this point even though it appears we may be inside the MJO circle then, which has tended to be a pretty favorable phase in Sep during stronger Nino's. It will be interesting to see if this run even has the right general idea as it could easily be way off base.
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#3362 Postby gatorcane » Tue Sep 01, 2015 7:57 pm

The latest GFS run shows the remnants of Erika just off the east coast of Florida where it meanders for several days. Below is an 850MB vorticity map:

Image
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#3363 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Sep 01, 2015 8:14 pm

:uarrow: See, this is why we should keep a wary eye on this vorticity. The big blocking ridge across the Western Atlantic will force this vorticity to meander for days to come. I have seen stranger things occur out there, and if the 102 hr GFS is right, and that vorticity is out over the Gulf Stream, well it could breathe. Have to watch this closely especially with this vorticity hanging around too close to home.
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#3364 Postby LarryWx » Tue Sep 01, 2015 11:15 pm

:uarrow: The 0Z GFS has something similar (very weak) off of the SE coast but the shear is projected to be even higher, which would not be conducive for tropical dev. At this point, I think the chances for a TC to form just offshore and linger are low but I'll follow.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA Remnants - Discussion

#3365 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 02, 2015 5:47 am

Great loop of the whole Erika's endeavor.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U7ahZO4CydU
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#3366 Postby NDG » Wed Sep 02, 2015 6:55 am

The GFS & Euro forecast westerly 20-30 knot UL winds over the vorticity as it moves back over the Atlantic.
If it did not developed over the last couple days in the GOM is not going to develope over the next days with that forecasted UL environment.

We need to admit that El Niño is kicking butt in our side of the Atlantic :)
Last edited by NDG on Wed Sep 02, 2015 6:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#3367 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Sep 02, 2015 6:56 am

Ericka's remnant circulation is moving northeast now entering Southeast GA. Latest GEM has the vorticity moving off the coast of GA/SC by late tonight or early tomorrow morning. Then, it meanders just off the coast. Shear forecast signal likely no development, but it still merits watching nonetheless. The vorticity is very close in proximity for one main reason and also never rule out any thing with these systems. Never!

When I finally see that this vorticity has dissipated completely, then it will.be DONE.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA Remnants - Discussion

#3368 Postby wxman57 » Wed Sep 02, 2015 7:52 am

There's no evidence of any residual LLC in surface obs across northern FL or GA. Pressures there are rather high - 1018-1019mb. Redevelopment chances still zero.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA Remnants - Discussion

#3369 Postby NDG » Wed Sep 02, 2015 10:08 am

On visible satellite I see now a very well fine surface circulation near Valdosta Georgia but the shear is already blowing the convection away from it.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA Remnants - Discussion

#3370 Postby Sanibel » Wed Sep 02, 2015 10:36 am

I see that too. But it's a goner because it's headed over land. 2015 is not developing these systems.
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#3371 Postby LarryWx » Wed Sep 02, 2015 12:43 pm

The 12Z GFS shows any remnant of Erika off of the SE coast this weekend into early next week still having pretty unfavorable upper air winds/shear offshore despite persistent areas of convection and weak sfc low pressure. This run actually looks like it has a bit of an upper low at 500 mb nearby, which in itself would not be conducive to tropical development. It isn't often that an upper low transitions to a tropical cyclone though it is, to be fair, far from impossible. Also, to be fair, there are some areas on the northern end of this showing under 10 knots shear on this run. So, shear is progged to be a little lower in some areas off of the SE than prior runs. I'm in the "see what happens because it will be interesting being that SST's are in the mid-80's and the mess looks to persist in the same area for four days (Fri-Tue) but expect no TC to form in that region" camp.

*Edited
Last edited by LarryWx on Wed Sep 02, 2015 1:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA Remnants - Discussion

#3372 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 02, 2015 1:09 pm

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi · 3m3 minutes ago  State College, PA
Erika came all that way from Africa, only to wind up as swirl over an onion patch south of Vidalia GA

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#3373 Postby LarryWx » Wed Sep 02, 2015 2:22 pm

Currently, vis satellites clearly show a low level swirl near Valdosta, Ga, moving very slowly eastward:

http://www.aviationweather.gov/adds/sat ... &itype=vis

Lowest pressure is 30.01"/1016 mb at Valdosta, GA.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA Remnants - Discussion

#3374 Postby emeraldislenc » Wed Sep 02, 2015 2:59 pm

the swirl is easy to see!
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#3375 Postby SeGaBob » Wed Sep 02, 2015 9:04 pm

We did get a quick downpour from it today and nasty lightning also. One bolt struck within 80 yards of where I was at. (which scared me to death :eek: )
But for the most part it stayed south of us. :)
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#3376 Postby LarryWx » Wed Sep 02, 2015 9:51 pm

^Bob, that sounds scarey!
Erika's remnant LLC has just passed Waycross, Ga, and is moving slowly eastward. It should pass offshore near Brunswick in a few hours and then we can start watching a little more closely again though I still doubt it will redevelop into a TC due to projected shear. If the models are too high on the projected shear, then that could mean a different story. Actually, one can see that there is decent shear now judging by the thunderstorms being blown offshore with hardly any precip at the center.
Regardless of the shear, I expect interest in Erika's remnants to ramp back up once it gets offshore and assuming it lingers near the SE coast intact, especially with this being about the only nearby to the CONUS feature. This interest may continue for the next 5-6 days as it lingers.
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#3377 Postby LarryWx » Wed Sep 02, 2015 10:10 pm

^An additional note on the LLC: the 11 PM SLP at Brunswick was at 30.00" while it was at 29.92" at Waycross, only 60 miles to the west. That's nearly a 3 mb difference and does actually suggest there is a tighter LLC than what the GFS and especially what the Euro is showing.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... x&loop=yes
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Re: ATL: ERIKA Remnants - Discussion

#3378 Postby emeraldislenc » Thu Sep 03, 2015 8:56 am

Is that the cluster of storms off the coast of ga/sc?
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#3379 Postby LarryWx » Thu Sep 03, 2015 9:12 am

:uarrow: Yes, that cluster is directly associated with it. However, the sfc low center is west of there due to pretty good westerly shear, which has been expected. But as mentioned, there still remains a clearcut sfc circ.
Interestingly, the center of the low seems like it might actually be a bit north of Brunswick/SSI. It looks like it may be between SAV and SSI and only crawling eastward. So, it still appears to not have gotten offshore just yet. Let's see what it does once it touches the mid-80's SST's. Had the shear not been this strong, I would have been looking for tropical development of this low level center. However, the shear will likely prevent that as has been opined. We'll see. Little things like this nearby are certainly interesting to track.

**Edited
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#3380 Postby LarryWx » Thu Sep 03, 2015 9:24 am

:uarrow: One can clearly see what appears to be a distinct/tight low level circ center along the GA coast between Brunswick/St. Simons Island and Savannah by looking at this vis loop. Also, it looks like it is only crawling eastward:

http://www.aviationweather.gov/adds/sat ... &itype=vis

Anyone else see what I'm seeing?
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