ATL: ERIKA Remnants - Discussion

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#3381 Postby panamatropicwatch » Thu Sep 03, 2015 9:37 am

NOAA has a floater back up on the remnants of Erika. Any thoughts on this?


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#3382 Postby LarryWx » Thu Sep 03, 2015 10:00 am

^No change in the thoughts I've been stating (see above if interested). The LLC is now barely offshore the northern portion of the GA coast near the far western tip of the convection, due to the expected significant westerly shear, as can be seen on this vis loop:

http://www.aviationweather.gov/adds/sat ... &itype=vis
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Re: ATL: ERIKA Remnants - Discussion

#3383 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 03, 2015 10:12 am

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#3384 Postby panamatropicwatch » Thu Sep 03, 2015 10:13 am

I was curious why they put the floater back up.
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#3385 Postby LarryWx » Thu Sep 03, 2015 10:18 am

:uarrow: I don't know. Do they need a specific reason other than seeing a concentrated area of convection even if tropical development isn't occurring or expected?
By the way, recent GFS/Euro runs anticipated these thunderstorms well when looking at QPF that covers the current time. This will be fun to follow despite the low chance for TC development. Like I said, if the shear had not been so high, this would probably have had a much higher chance to become a TC.
I was wondering if the shear, itself, could actually be enhancing the convection? Anyone have an opinion?
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Re: ATL: ERIKA Remnants - Discussion

#3386 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 03, 2015 10:25 am

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#3387 Postby panamatropicwatch » Thu Sep 03, 2015 10:31 am

:uarrow: Don't know if the high in the gulf will be able to hold on to the remnants of Erika with that frontal low over northern Alabama coming on strong.
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#3388 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Sep 03, 2015 10:33 am

Yes, that is a great visible image of the remnant circulation. It is still a rather vigorous circulation. I agree with you LarryWx, this would have probably redeveloped if not for the shear. Still have to watch this vorticity out there, especially this close to home.
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#3389 Postby LarryWx » Thu Sep 03, 2015 10:49 am

:uarrow: I was hoping you'd get back into this thread so we could read your latest thoughts. Have you noticed that recent model trends have been further offshore rather than holding it nearly stationary just offshore til Tue? Also, it then looks like the models may be trending it to move northward around Tue toward perhaps NC (which wouldn't surprise me since that is a more common path) instead of the runs from a couple of days ago bringing it westward back into the SE around then, which typically needs a decent strength high to the north directing it westward.
Last edited by LarryWx on Thu Sep 03, 2015 11:37 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#3390 Postby LarryWx » Thu Sep 03, 2015 11:11 am

:uarrow: Consistent with recent model trends, the 12Z GFS has the LLC going even further offshore and then moving northward to offshore NC and then heading out.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA Remnants - Discussion

#3391 Postby Sanibel » Thu Sep 03, 2015 11:50 am

Persistent bugger outdid the doubters.
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#3392 Postby LarryWx » Thu Sep 03, 2015 12:14 pm

:uarrow: Yes, indeed! This reminds me somewhat of the remnants of Fred of 2009 that came all of the way over into the SE US coast seemingly against all odds. That one was more interesting to me and it generated quite a bit of discussion here.

Pretty much according to expectations, the largely naked and heavily sheared LLC looks to be moving slowly ~ESE now and has made it to well out into the open ocean ~50-75 miles SE/ESE of SAV per this:

http://www.aviationweather.gov/adds/sat ... &itype=vis

I wonder if it will make it into the next TWO. If so, I'd think that chances for tropical development would be put at either 0% or 10% if they want to play it safe.
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#3393 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Sep 03, 2015 12:45 pm

Larry, I saw those latest runs you referred to above. I can see this moving about 200 miles or so offshore and possibly move north . Remains to be seen if it can regenerate a few days from now. Shear is just relentless. Remnant circulation now drifting southeastward now, currently about 50-70 miles due east of Brunswick, GA.
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#3394 Postby LarryWx » Thu Sep 03, 2015 1:07 pm

It didn't get mentioned in the TWO.

Reluctantly (because I know it is very often on its own and wrong with crazy solutions but I also know people will still note it) , I'm posting the 12Z Crazy Uncle (aka CMC) 108 hour map showing a 1000 mb TS hit on Wilmington, NC, Mon. PM but certainly not because I think it has a better chance to verify than the GFS or Euro:

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorate ... est&hh=108
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Re: ATL: ERIKA Remnants - Discussion

#3395 Postby NDG » Thu Sep 03, 2015 1:22 pm

Sanibel wrote:Persistent bugger outdid the doubters.


The "bugger" might be persistent but the shear is just as persistent, back to a naked swirl again, lol.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA Remnants - Discussion

#3396 Postby wxman57 » Thu Sep 03, 2015 1:26 pm

Surface winds 5-10 kts in the area. Pressure 1014mb.
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#3397 Postby OuterBanker » Thu Sep 03, 2015 1:30 pm

Crazy cousin (CMC enough said) has a tropical system hitting Hatteras. Erika is starting to remind me of Dennis the Menace 1999. A storm that just wouldn't go away. At this rate we will still be discussing Erika around Thanksgiving. She is getting like company that just won't leave. Geeze.
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#3398 Postby OuterBanker » Thu Sep 03, 2015 1:38 pm

In the latest visible I couldn't tell whether the llc finally dissipated or slipped under the convection.
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Re:

#3399 Postby LarryWx » Thu Sep 03, 2015 1:46 pm

OuterBanker wrote:In the latest visible I couldn't tell whether the llc finally dissipated or slipped under the convection.


It is still there now about 80-90 miles E of Brunswick as a naked swirl moving ESEward.

Looking at the 12Z Euro, it suggests that convection will redevelop about 75-100+ miles E of N FL close to the center that is still moving ESE starting this evening or later tonight and last into the morning. However, significant shear is also expected to continue. So, even with this, the Euro still shows no tropical development.
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#3400 Postby LarryWx » Thu Sep 03, 2015 1:58 pm

The 12Z Euro has this moving ESE at an average speed of ~5 knots as ~1013-14 low for the next 60 hours til it gets to ~350 miles E of Melbourne before stopping and beginning to drift northward. Afterward, it gets harder to follow due to looking more diffuse. Needless to say, this looks nothing like the usually wrong Crazy Uncle, which has a TS hitting NC Monday.
Last edited by LarryWx on Thu Sep 03, 2015 2:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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