ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

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Steve
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Re:

#2461 Postby Steve » Fri Aug 28, 2015 3:05 pm

Weatherlover12 wrote:My local weather network said models are shifting east?
Is that true? If so..its a mess


Sounds like that network is a mess. Check out the spaghetti plots. Even the eastern outlier models trended west. At the end of the day, and I'm not going to go back and check, BAM Shallow and Bam Medium seemed to have this better than the real models as far as where it was heading a few days ago. They were western outliers while this was at much lower latitudes and led the way for what appears will end up being a much more Southern and Western solution. Blind squirrels? Probably. Of any real value? Who knows.
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Re:

#2462 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri Aug 28, 2015 3:05 pm

Weatherlover12 wrote:My local weather network said models are shifting east?
Is that true? If so..its a mess

At this point models can go anywhere and it has a 10% shot at being correct.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Frank P
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Re: Re:

#2463 Postby Frank P » Fri Aug 28, 2015 3:10 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:
Weatherlover12 wrote:My local weather network said models are shifting east?
Is that true? If so..its a mess

At this point models can go anywhere and it has a 10% shot at being correct.


1800 UTC tropical models shifted way west...
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Weatherlover12
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#2464 Postby Weatherlover12 » Fri Aug 28, 2015 3:13 pm

Another question for you all.
Could this do a Irene of 1999?
What are the conditions in the western Caribbean. I'm curious about the trough shooting it out NE.
I trying to clear all the options in the table.
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Stormcenter
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Re:

#2465 Postby Stormcenter » Fri Aug 28, 2015 3:31 pm

They must have meant shifting west.


Weatherlover12 wrote:My local weather network said models are shifting east?
Is that true? If so..its a mess
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Re: Re:

#2466 Postby Stormcenter » Fri Aug 28, 2015 3:32 pm

Image please.


Frank P wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:
Weatherlover12 wrote:My local weather network said models are shifting east?
Is that true? If so..its a mess

At this point models can go anywhere and it has a 10% shot at being correct.


1800 UTC tropical models shifted way west...
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bamajammer4eva
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2467 Postby bamajammer4eva » Fri Aug 28, 2015 3:39 pm

1800 tracks

Image

1800 Intensity no longer shows any cat 4 and now only 2 models show hurricane at all

Image
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2468 Postby OuterBanker » Fri Aug 28, 2015 3:46 pm

Btw, it was TWC that posted the east shift. It quickly became viral. They changed it quickly because the original post left out the "f" in shifts.
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#2469 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Aug 28, 2015 4:40 pm

:uarrow: That SHIPS model must forget that we are in an full blown strong El Niño!
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#2470 Postby Weatherlover12 » Fri Aug 28, 2015 4:43 pm

Does it have a chance to form on the other side of Hispanola.. Should I watch it tonight?
This storm is driving me crazy.. It's a prediction, but I believe that this storm has some surprises. Something just doesn't feel right.
Anybody feel the same?

Not a pro met.. Just a citizen
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2471 Postby BobHarlem » Fri Aug 28, 2015 4:47 pm

18Z Gfs so far has it just clipping the eastern tip of Cuba, no spine riding, heading generally toward South Florida.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2472 Postby Bocadude85 » Fri Aug 28, 2015 4:59 pm

18z GFS 850mb vort into S. Fla in 42 hours.
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#2473 Postby rockyman » Fri Aug 28, 2015 5:07 pm

18z GFS, into eastern Florida Panhandle:

Image
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2474 Postby dixiebreeze » Fri Aug 28, 2015 5:16 pm

Very remindful of Elena, 1985. Pounded Florida west coast for three days before edging into the northern gulf.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2475 Postby bamajammer4eva » Fri Aug 28, 2015 6:19 pm

This was on twitter. Would be assuming that Erika makes it till Wednesday and follows the NHC track I am sure

Image


GFS Wind-flow map

Image
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2476 Postby BobHarlem » Fri Aug 28, 2015 6:41 pm

18z HWRF : Poof!
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#2477 Postby Steve » Fri Aug 28, 2015 7:04 pm

High res nam lifts a piece of trough energy out of the gulf at 500. It stretches out whatever is left of Erika and absorbs most of it into the flow pattern within and out ahead of the jet. I don't see it as likely, but some of the elements are visible in the tropical Atlantic WV loop. http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html
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#2478 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Aug 28, 2015 7:50 pm

00z Track Guidance :darrow:

Image

00z Intensity Guidance :darrow:

Image
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got ants?
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2479 Postby got ants? » Fri Aug 28, 2015 9:25 pm

lol, do I sense sarcasm?

Sorry for the ignorant rant... but I see it as i see's it...

(and no one wants an ignorant schmuck like moi, to prove an edumacated "expert" wrong

btw, it was just an unedumacated postulation of what I thought I seen... lol
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#2480 Postby Weatherlover12 » Fri Aug 28, 2015 9:28 pm

Is is finally done?
Or should FL should watch this?
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