EPAC: JIMENA - Post-Tropical

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 110114
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

EPAC: JIMENA - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 24, 2015 1:30 pm

EP, 96, 2015082418, , BEST, 0, 96N, 1007W, 25, 1008, DB
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 110114
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#2 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 24, 2015 1:32 pm

Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in association with
a tropical wave located several hundred miles south of the coast of
southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for slow development of this disturbance, and a tropical
depression is likely to form late this week while the system moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 110114
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#3 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 24, 2015 1:56 pm

Code: Select all

              * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  INVEST      EP962015  08/24/15  18 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    24    24    24    25    29    32    35    37    37    37    37    37
V (KT) LAND       25    24    24    24    25    29    32    35    37    37    37    37    37
V (KT) LGE mod    25    25    25    25    25    25    26    26    27    27    28    28    28
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)         5     5     8    11    14    13    16    18    25    24    21    21    21
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     2     2     4     1    -1    -4    -2    -1    -5    -2     1     0    -1
SHEAR DIR        249   295   294   293   305   306   302   300   327   332   339   317   318
SST (C)         29.8  29.8  29.7  29.8  29.9  29.7  29.6  29.4  29.3  28.9  28.6  28.4  28.3
POT. INT. (KT)   164   165   164   165   166   164   163   161   160   155   152   150   149
200 MB T (C)   -52.5 -52.2 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -52.2
TH_E DEV (C)       8     8     9     8     8    10    10    10     9     9     8     8     8
700-500 MB RH     72    74    75    75    73    70    69    68    66    62    59    58    57
MODEL VTX (KT)     0  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST
850 MB ENV VOR     8    11     9     8     0    -6    -8   -19   -16    -5    -3     6     3
200 MB DIV        39    48    53    45    33    49    44    34    22    19    18     9    10
700-850 TADV       0    -5   -10    -8    -4    -2    -1     3    -3    -4    -4    -6    -5
LAND (KM)        768   790   814   839   864   944  1071  1150  1261  1404  1577  1770  1966
LAT (DEG N)      9.6  10.0  10.4  10.8  11.2  12.1  13.0  13.9  14.8  15.4  15.9  16.3  16.6
LONG(DEG W)    100.7 102.2 103.6 105.2 106.7 109.6 112.5 115.4 118.4 121.3 124.1 126.9 129.8
STM SPEED (KT)    13    15    15    16    15    15    15    15    15    14    14    14    13
HEAT CONTENT      44    37    38    45    46    38    48    37    28    36    35    16    16

  FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11      CX,CY: -10/  3
  T-12 MAX WIND:  15            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  538  (MEAN=581)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  23.8 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  47.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.  -1.   0.   1.   7.  15.  23.  30.  34.  36.  38.  40.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   2.   3.   3.   4.   3.   3.   1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -3.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR    -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -7.  -9. -12. -13. -13. -12. -12. -12.
  PERSISTENCE            0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -4.  -6.  -7.  -9.  -9.  -9.  -9.  -9.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   3.   3.   3.   4.   4.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.  -1.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.
  GOES PREDICTORS        0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -6.  -6.  -6.  -7.  -7.  -7.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   3.   3.   2.   3.   3.   2.   1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE          -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   4.   8.  10.  12.  12.  12.  12.  12.

   ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962015 INVEST     08/24/15  18 UTC **
           ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   0.0 Range:-22.0 to  38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.8
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   8.6 Range: 18.7 to   1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.8
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 139.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  1.0/  1.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  23.8 Range: 38.9 to   2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.4
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  42.0 Range:  3.6 to  75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.5
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  43.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.3
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  39.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.0/  0.0
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  74.6 Range: 57.6 to  96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/ -0.1
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    30% is   2.3 times the sample mean(13.1%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=     3% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=     2% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=     1% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962015 INVEST     08/24/15  18 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 110114
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#4 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 24, 2015 7:06 pm

Shower and thunderstorm activity continues in association with
a tropical wave located several hundred miles south of the coast of
southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for gradual development of this disturbance, and a
tropical depression is likely to form late this week while the
system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10228
Age: 19
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Norman, Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#5 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 24, 2015 7:32 pm

Image

Image

Image

ECMWF and GFS runs.
0 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8030
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

#6 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 24, 2015 8:43 pm

:uarrow:

Split the two solutions and it's basically an Iselle track. We'll see how lucky Hawaii remains.
0 likes   
Image

User avatar
srainhoutx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6778
Age: 60
Joined: Sun Jan 14, 2007 11:34 am
Location: NW Houston FM 1960/SH 6
Contact:

Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#7 Postby srainhoutx » Mon Aug 24, 2015 8:45 pm

It appears that the 53rd crew will stick around for this potential threat to Hawaii.
0 likes   
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
KHOU Regional Weather Forum
http://forums.khou.com/index.php

Facebook.com/TxWeatherBoard
Twitter @TxWeatherBoard

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6499
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

#8 Postby Alyono » Mon Aug 24, 2015 8:47 pm

make that TWO Hawaii threats in the next 2 weeks
0 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8030
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

#9 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 24, 2015 9:05 pm

Really lucked out with Kilo failing to organize despite the rather favorable conditions.
0 likes   
Image

User avatar
srainhoutx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6778
Age: 60
Joined: Sun Jan 14, 2007 11:34 am
Location: NW Houston FM 1960/SH 6
Contact:

Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#10 Postby srainhoutx » Mon Aug 24, 2015 9:10 pm

Just received word that the crew and planes are transitioning back to the Mainland tomorrow. Kilo fizzled out.
0 likes   
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
KHOU Regional Weather Forum
http://forums.khou.com/index.php

Facebook.com/TxWeatherBoard
Twitter @TxWeatherBoard

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6499
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#11 Postby Alyono » Mon Aug 24, 2015 10:14 pm

srainhoutx wrote:Just received word that the crew and planes are transitioning back to the Mainland tomorrow. Kilo fizzled out.


why will they? There is a new TD heading at them now. They'll just have to head right back
0 likes   

floridasun78
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3026
Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
Location: miami fl

Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#12 Postby floridasun78 » Mon Aug 24, 2015 10:19 pm

Alyono wrote:
srainhoutx wrote:Just received word that the crew and planes are transitioning back to the Mainland tomorrow. Kilo fizzled out.


why will they? There is a new TD heading at them now. They'll just have to head right back

maybe because need fly into ERIKA spherically this weekend as ERIKA get close to bahamas their dont over use one going fly into ERIKA starting on tues
0 likes   

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6499
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#13 Postby Alyono » Mon Aug 24, 2015 10:23 pm

floridasun78 wrote:
Alyono wrote:
srainhoutx wrote:Just received word that the crew and planes are transitioning back to the Mainland tomorrow. Kilo fizzled out.


why will they? There is a new TD heading at them now. They'll just have to head right back

maybe because need fly into ERIKA spherically this weekend as ERIKA get close to bahamas their dont over use one going fly into ERIKA starting on tues


the USA, including Hawaii takes precedence over flying for other countries. Besides, if there was a major hurricane threatening Hawaii, as was the case in 2007, that WILL take priority, even over a Gulf storm and a cat 5 in the Caribbean
0 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10228
Age: 19
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Norman, Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#14 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 24, 2015 10:41 pm

Alyono wrote:
the USA, including Hawaii takes precedence over flying for other countries. Besides, if there was a major hurricane threatening Hawaii, as was the case in 2007, that WILL take priority, even over a Gulf storm and a cat 5 in the Caribbean


If that was truly the case, they'd fly to Guam and American Samoa for TC's in those basins.
0 likes   

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6499
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#15 Postby Alyono » Tue Aug 25, 2015 2:53 am

Yellow Evan wrote:
Alyono wrote:
the USA, including Hawaii takes precedence over flying for other countries. Besides, if there was a major hurricane threatening Hawaii, as was the case in 2007, that WILL take priority, even over a Gulf storm and a cat 5 in the Caribbean


If that was truly the case, they'd fly to Guam and American Samoa for TC's in those basins.


recon missions do not extend to Guam. Only Puerto Rico and HI
0 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8030
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

#16 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 25, 2015 5:59 am

06z GFS safely recurves this one but really deepens it.
0 likes   
Image

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 110114
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#17 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 25, 2015 7:21 am

Cloudiness and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area
located several hundred miles south-southwest of the coast of
southwestern Mexico are slowly becoming better organized.
Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form in a couple
of days while the low moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10228
Age: 19
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Norman, Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#18 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Aug 25, 2015 9:47 am

Alyono wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:
Alyono wrote:
the USA, including Hawaii takes precedence over flying for other countries. Besides, if there was a major hurricane threatening Hawaii, as was the case in 2007, that WILL take priority, even over a Gulf storm and a cat 5 in the Caribbean


If that was truly the case, they'd fly to Guam and American Samoa for TC's in those basins.


recon missions do not extend to Guam. Only Puerto Rico and HI


Which doesn't make sense that they fly to Carribean and Mexico systems and not US territories.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 110114
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#19 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 25, 2015 12:53 pm

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area
located about 575 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, are
showing signs of organization. Environmental conditions are
conducive for additional development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form in a couple of days while the low moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10228
Age: 19
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Norman, Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#20 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Aug 25, 2015 3:16 pm

Code: Select all

                    * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  INVEST      EP962015  08/25/15  18 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    26    27    28    31    38    44    50    58    66    78    87    93
V (KT) LAND       25    26    27    28    31    38    44    50    58    66    78    87    93
V (KT) LGE mod    25    26    26    28    29    32    36    40    45    53    69    90   108
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)         1     2     2     4     4     6    10     7     8     4     6     9     7
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     1    -1    -3    -2    -2    -4    -6    -2    -4    -5    -2    -1     1
SHEAR DIR        145    25   291   275   307   257   277   296   335    41    75    98    89
SST (C)         29.6  29.6  29.6  29.5  29.5  29.5  29.8  29.5  29.3  29.4  29.3  29.1  28.7
POT. INT. (KT)   162   163   163   162   162   162   164   162   159   160   159   156   152
200 MB T (C)   -52.7 -52.3 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -52.3
TH_E DEV (C)       7     8     8     8     9     9     9     9     8     8     8     9     9
700-500 MB RH     75    74    73    73    71    72    70    69    69    67    64    60    57
MODEL VTX (KT)     8     8     7     7     7     8    10    11    14    16    20    25    28
850 MB ENV VOR    11     7     2    -1    -1    -9   -12     0    19    31    46    71    82
200 MB DIV        41    44    52    54    61    57    30    43    50    59    67    92   124
700-850 TADV       0    -2    -2    -2    -1     1    -2    -3    -2    -1    -1     0    -1
LAND (KM)        978  1024  1086  1152  1230  1379  1509  1679  1862  2049  2252  2434  2358
LAT (DEG N)      9.8  10.1  10.4  10.7  11.0  11.7  12.0  12.3  12.4  12.5  12.5  12.4  12.4
LONG(DEG W)    106.1 107.7 109.3 110.9 112.5 115.6 118.5 121.3 124.2 126.8 129.3 131.6 134.0
STM SPEED (KT)    14    16    16    16    16    15    14    14    13    13    12    11    12
HEAT CONTENT      28    32    39    42    50    30    32    37    31    33    27    25    27

  FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12      CX,CY: -11/  1
  T-12 MAX WIND:  25            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  554  (MEAN=581)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  23.0 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  57.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   0.   0.   2.   7.  15.  23.  30.  34.  36.  39.  40.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   2.   3.   5.   7.   8.   9.  10.  11.  11.  11.  12.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   3.   3.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -5.  -8. -11. -12. -11.  -8.  -6.  -4.
  PERSISTENCE            0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -4.  -6.  -8.  -9. -10. -11. -11. -11.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   3.   4.   4.   4.   4.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   0.  -1.   0.   1.   3.   5.   9.  12.  19.  25.  29.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   3.   3.   3.   3.   2.   2.   2.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.
  GOES PREDICTORS        0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -5.  -5.  -5.  -5.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   1.   2.   2.   3.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           1.   2.   3.   6.  13.  19.  25.  33.  41.  53.  62.  68.

   ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962015 INVEST     08/25/15  18 UTC **
           ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   0.0 Range:-22.0 to  38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.8
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   2.7 Range: 18.7 to   1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  1.3
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 137.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  1.0/  1.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  23.0 Range: 38.9 to   2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.5
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  38.2 Range:  3.6 to  75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.4
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  50.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.3
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  50.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.1/  0.1
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  74.8 Range: 57.6 to  96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/ -0.1
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    40% is   3.1 times the sample mean(13.1%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    29% is   3.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    20% is   3.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=     1% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%)


If this system can get going quickly, I see no reason why this won't reach major hurricane status.
0 likes   


Return to “2015”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests