EPAC: JIMENA - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

Code: Select all

                    * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  JIMENA      EP132015  08/28/15  12 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    80    87    94   102   108   115   120   121   115   106   104    99    96
V (KT) LAND       80    87    94   102   108   115   120   121   115   106   104    99    96
V (KT) LGE mod    80    91   101   111   119   128   134   133   122   106    94    82    70
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        12    13     7     2     6     6     5     9     9     8     9     6     7
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -1    -1    -2    -2    -4    -7    -2    -1     1     9    12    14     9
SHEAR DIR        356    11    25    33   350   350    15   337   337     2    38    26   348
SST (C)         29.5  29.4  29.3  29.3  29.3  29.3  29.1  28.8  28.3  27.8  27.5  27.2  27.0
POT. INT. (KT)   160   159   158   158   158   158   156   153   148   142   138   134   131
200 MB T (C)   -52.1 -51.9 -51.2 -51.4 -51.3 -50.6 -51.3 -50.5 -50.6 -50.1 -50.6 -50.4 -50.7
TH_E DEV (C)       8     8     8     8     9     9     9     9     8     8     8     9     9
700-500 MB RH     71    70    69    67    64    59    56    55    56    59    62    62    62
MODEL VTX (KT)    21    22    24    27    28    30    33    37    38    36    38    39    40
850 MB ENV VOR     7    15    25    43    45    52    69    73    73    77    75    80    81
200 MB DIV        74    70    83   102   113   106   113    94    66    58    21    48    37
700-850 TADV      -3    -3    -1    -2    -3    -1    -3    -4    -3     7     9     8     3
LAND (KM)       1693  1756  1822  1876  1933  2028  2125  2221  2248  1999  1798  1655  1555
LAT (DEG N)     12.3  12.3  12.3  12.5  12.6  13.3  14.1  15.0  15.9  16.7  17.3  17.7  18.0
LONG(DEG W)    121.5 122.5 123.5 124.5 125.4 127.3 129.3 131.5 133.9 136.1 137.9 139.2 140.1
STM SPEED (KT)    10    10    10     9    10    10    11    12    12    10     8     6     4
HEAT CONTENT      36    34    32    32    35    42    49    24    16    26    27    26    16

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10      CX,CY:  -9/  0
  T-12 MAX WIND:  60            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  598  (MEAN=581)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:   4.6 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  99.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL          1.   2.   3.   4.   4.   3.   1.  -1.  -5.  -8. -10. -11.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG    -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   1.   3.   5.   6.   7.   7.   8.   8.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   0.  -1.  -2.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  PERSISTENCE            5.   7.   8.   8.   6.   5.   3.   2.   2.   1.   1.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -5.  -7. -10. -12. -14. -14. -15. -15.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   2.   5.   8.  12.  17.  23.  24.  21.  26.  26.  27.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   3.   4.   5.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   3.   3.   2.   1.   0.  -1.  -2.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.
  GOES PREDICTORS        2.   3.   4.   5.   5.   5.   5.   4.   3.   2.   2.   2.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           7.  14.  22.  28.  36.  40.  41.  36.  26.  24.  19.  16.

   ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA     08/28/15  12 UTC **
           ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):  20.0 Range:-22.0 to  38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  1.5
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   8.1 Range: 18.7 to   1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.9
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :  78.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.4
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :   4.6 Range: 38.9 to   2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  1.0
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  33.8 Range:  3.6 to  75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.4
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  88.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.5
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  98.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  1.0/  0.5
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  71.4 Range: 57.6 to  96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.0
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    57% is   4.4 times the sample mean(13.1%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    54% is   6.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    48% is   7.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=    48% is  12.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA     08/28/15  12 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Yellow Evan]

Eye clearing out. Likely 85 knots now.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015
800 AM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015

Rapid intensification of Jimena continues this morning. Microwave
data has shown an eye beneath the central dense overcast, and a
more definitive eye is just now becoming apparent in infrared
satellite imagery. With subjective Dvorak estimates of T4.5/77 kt
from TAFB and SAB, and an objective estimate of T4.6/80 kt from
UW-CIMSS, Jimena's initial intensity is raised to 80 kt.

Jimena is expected to remain in an environment of low shear and
over warm water for the duration of the forecast period. Mid-level
moisture is high at the moment and is expected to only gradually
decrease during the next 2 to 3 days. The SHIPS Rapid
Intensification Index (RII) is showing a 54 percent chance of a
30-kt increase in intensity during the next 24 hours. Therefore, a
continuation of RI appears likely and is explicitly shown in the NHC
intensity forecast. A peak intensity is expected in about 48 hours,
followed by gradual weakening through day 5 due to a slightly drier
environment and lower oceanic heat content values. The updated NHC
intensity forecast is generally a blend of the previous forecast
with the latest SHIPS and LGEM guidance. It should be noted that
once Jimena reaches its peak as a major hurricane, fluctuations in
intensity that deviate from the official forecast are likely due to
possible eyewall replacements.

Jimena appears to have slowed down a bit, and the initial motion is
270/10 kt. The hurricane remains to the south of an anomalously
strong ridge that extends southwestward from the southwestern
United States, and this feature is expected to keep Jimena on a
westward course for the next 24 hours. After that time, the ridge
is expected to weaken, which will allow Jimena to turn
west-northwestward through day 5. The track guidance remains in
good agreement and very close to the previous forecast. Therefore,
no significant changes are noted in the updated NHC track forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 12.4N 122.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 12.4N 123.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 12.6N 125.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 13.2N 127.3W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 14.1N 129.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 31/1200Z 15.9N 133.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 01/1200Z 17.0N 138.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 02/1200Z 17.5N 140.5W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

[tolakram]

live visible

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-W%20PACUS&lat=13&lon=-145&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&type=Animation&quality=90&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=4

[tolakram]

1km relative position loop

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/loop.asp?product=1kmsrvis&storm_identifier=EP132015&starting_image=2015EP13_1KMSRVIS_201508272130.GIF

[Kingarabian]

Sucks that we have two ugly storms that are land threats to take attention away from Jimena:

[Extratropical94]

Jimena should be a category 2 in the next advisory.

13E JIMENA 150828 1800 12.3N 122.6W EPAC 85 975

[Yellow Evan]

Jimena looks 90-95ish right now.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 28 AUG 2015 Time : 183000 UTC
Lat : 12:25:36 N Lon : 122:37:11 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.1 / 970.4mb/ 92.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.1 5.9 5.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 16 km

Center Temp : +8.8C Cloud Region Temp : -65.3C

Scene Type : EYE

[Ntxw]

Clearing eye, what an impressive system. Question now is can this make it t cat 5?

[Yellow Evan]

Clearing eye, what an impressive system. Question now is can this make it t cat 5?

Not sure if the convection will be thick enough for 7.0 readings that the NHC bases intensity off of, but maybe given the impressie upper-level outflow.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 28 AUG 2015 Time : 190000 UTC
Lat : 12:22:33 N Lon : 122:39:30 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.2 / 968.6mb/ 94.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.2 5.9 5.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 19 km

Center Temp : +11.4C Cloud Region Temp : -64.5C

Scene Type : EYE

[Extratropical94]

HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015
200 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015

A distinct eye cleared out in both visible and infrared satellite
imagery around 1800 UTC, and convective cloud tops surrounding the
eye are as cold as -75 degrees Celsius. Dvorak intensity estimates
were T5.0/90 kt from TAFB and T4.5/77 kt from SAB at 1800 UTC, and
the most recent UW-CIMSS ADT estimate is T5.4/100 kt. The initial
intensity is therefore raised to 90 kt on this advisory. Jimena
continues to rapidly intensify, with the intensity having increased
by 35-40 kt in the past 24 hours.

The environment near Jimena remains conducive for further
strengthening. Low shear and very warm ocean water could allow
rapid intensification to continue, and the SHIPS Rapid
Intensification Index is showing a 43 percent chance of a 30-kt
increase in intensity during the next 24 hours. Based on the
latest statistical-dynamical guidance, a peak in intensity is likely
to occur between 36 and 48 hours. After that time, a slightly
drier air mass and decreasing oceanic heat content should lead to a
gradual weakening through day 5. The NHC intensity forecast
continues to be a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM guidance, which have
performed better than the dynamical guidance with Jimena's
strengthening. As was noted earlier today, once Jimena reaches its
peak as a major hurricane, fluctuations in intensity that deviate
from the official forecast are likely due to possible eyewall
replacements.

Jimena is still moving westward, or 270/10 kt. The strong
deep-layer ridge to the north of the hurricane is expected to
weaken within 24 hours, which should allow Jimena to turn
west-northwestward by this time tomorrow. This trajectory should
then continue through day 5. The track guidance remains tightly
clustered, although the GFS and the ECMWF shifted a bit
northeastward on this cycle and lie near the edge of the guidance
envelope. Due to this shift, the new NHC track forecast lies
slightly right of and a little slower than the previous forecast
through 48 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 12.3N 123.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 12.4N 124.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 12.9N 126.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 13.7N 128.1W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 14.6N 130.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 31/1800Z 16.2N 135.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 01/1800Z 17.2N 138.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 02/1800Z 17.7N 140.7W 90 KT 105 MPH

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 28 AUG 2015 Time : 193000 UTC
Lat : 12:20:56 N Lon : 122:54:31 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.4 / 964.8mb/ 99.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.4 5.9 5.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 19 km

Center Temp : +11.4C Cloud Region Temp : -65.0C

Scene Type : EYE

[Extratropical94]

Current Intensity Index rising quickly.

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 28 AUG 2015 Time : 200000 UTC
Lat : 12:20:56 N Lon : 122:59:27 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.6 / 960.8mb/104.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.6 5.9 6.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 18 km

Center Temp : +10.5C Cloud Region Temp : -65.6C

Scene Type : EYE

[Kingarabian]

[Yellow Evan]

The eye did clear out fast, ill tell you that much.

[Kingarabian]

It's probably @ 100-105kts right now.

We may get a rare pacific ocean special advisory.

[cycloneye]

These kind of Hurricanes that move west at a fairly low latutude instead of going NW and going away faster are the best to track in the basin and also cause the ACE to rack up fast.

[Yellow Evan]

These kind of Hurricanes that move west at a fairly low latutude instead of going NW and going away faster are the best to track in the basin and also cause the ACE to rack up fast.

GFS keeps this as a monster for several days.