EPAC: JIMENA - Post-Tropical

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Kingarabian
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#281 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Sep 02, 2015 4:06 pm

WTPA44 PHFO 022100
TCDCP4

HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP132015
1100 AM HST WED SEP 02 2015

SINCE LATE LAST NIGHT THE CLOUD TOPS AROUND HURRICANE JIMENA HAVE
WARMED AND THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME LESS SYMMETRIC ON INFRARED
IMAGERY. AN AMSU/B MICROWAVE PASS AT 1905 UTC STILL SHOWED AN
APPARENT EYEWALL ENCIRCLING MOST OF THE CENTER...BUT OPEN TO THE
WEST. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES FROM JTWC AND PHFO WERE
5.0/90KT...WITH 4.5/77 KT FROM SAB. I HAVE GONE WITH THE MAJORITY
AND SET THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 90 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 04 KT.

FORECAST REASONING HAS CHANGED LITTLE. JIMENA IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWEST...STEERED BY A RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHEAST
FROM A HIGH NEAR 41N152W. THE STEERING FLOW IS WEAK...SO THE
FORWARD MOTION WILL REMAIN RATHER SLOW. JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO CURVE
TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. BEYOND 48 HOURS
THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW RIDGING BUILDING MORE STRONGLY NORTHEAST OF
THE CYCLONE SO THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED WEST. THE CURRENT
TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BUT IS A
BIT LEFT OF THE NEWER MODEL CONSENSUS.

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE
UW-CIMSS VERTICAL SHEAR PRODUCT SHOWS MODEST SHEAR OF AROUND 08 KT
FROM THE WEST...WHILE SHIPS SHOWS ONLY 7 KT OF SHEAR FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...SST...REMAIN FAIRLY WARM AT
27.6 DEGREES C. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
GRADUAL...STEADY WEAKENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN LOWERED
SLIGHTLY SINCE THE PREVIOUS ONE.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 18.0N 143.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 18.4N 143.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 18.9N 144.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 19.4N 144.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 20.2N 144.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 22.0N 145.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 24.0N 146.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 07/1800Z 26.5N 148.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON
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#282 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Sep 02, 2015 5:54 pm

18z GFS similar to 12z Euro.
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#283 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Sep 02, 2015 9:01 pm

Jimena kinda reminds me of a WPac system with the long trudging eyewall replacement cycle.

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Re: EPAC: JIMENA - Hurricane

#284 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 02, 2015 10:08 pm

HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP132015
500 PM HST WED SEP 02 2015

SINCE THIS MORNING THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN
AROUND HURRICANE JIMENA. AN SSMI MICROWAVE PASS AT 2357 UTC SHOWED
AN APPARENT EYEWALL ENCIRCLING MOST OF THE CENTER...BUT THE EYE IS
POORLY DEFINED ON VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK ANALYSES WERE UNCHANGED FROM THIS MORNING WITH JTWC AND PHFO
ANALYZING 5.0/90KT AND SAB ANALYZING 4.5/77 KT. I HAVE KEPT THE
INITIAL INTENSITY AT 90 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AT 04 KT.

FORECAST REASONING HAS CHANGED LITTLE. JIMENA IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWEST...STEERED BY A RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHEAST
FROM A HIGH NEAR 41N152W. THE STEERING FLOW IS WEAK...SO THE
FORWARD MOTION WILL REMAIN RATHER SLOW. JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO CURVE
MORE NORTH NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THEN MORE WEST
NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND 48 HOURS AS THE RIDGE BUILDS NORTHEAST OF THE
CYCLONE. THE CURRENT TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND TO
THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE
UW-CIMSS VERTICAL SHEAR PRODUCT SHOWS LOW SHEAR OF AROUND 5 KT
FROM THE NORTHWEST...WHILE SHIPS SHOWS ONLY 2 KT OF SHEAR FROM THE
WEST. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...SST...REMAIN FAIRLY WARM AT
27.5 DEGREES C. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SLOW WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. JIMENA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
MORE RAPIDLY AFTER 48 HOURS AS SST DROPS AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
INCREASES.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 18.4N 143.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 18.8N 143.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 19.3N 144.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 19.8N 144.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 05/0000Z 20.3N 144.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 06/0000Z 22.5N 145.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 07/0000Z 25.0N 147.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 08/0000Z 27.5N 149.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON
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#285 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Sep 02, 2015 10:13 pm

After 4 ERC's, this appears to have stabilized....
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#286 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Sep 03, 2015 12:01 am

00z GFS has a landfall again.
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#287 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Sep 03, 2015 12:31 am

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#288 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Sep 03, 2015 5:57 am

06z GFS:

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Oahu landfall? Seems unfathomable.
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#289 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Sep 03, 2015 5:57 am

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#290 Postby Alyono » Thu Sep 03, 2015 7:43 am

the landfall intensity is more believable though. It's as a TS and not a cat 3 like yesterday
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#291 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Sep 03, 2015 7:57 am

WTPA44 PHFO 030904
TCDCP4

HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP132015
1100 PM HST WED SEP 02 2015

JIMENA HAD DEVELOPED A RATHER LARGE AND IRREGULAR SHAPED EYE
ACCORDING TO INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING. ESTIMATES OF
ENVIRONMENTAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE 8 KT FROM 240 DEGREES
ACCORDING TO UW-CIMSS AND 5 KT FROM 275 DEGREES BASED ON THE LATEST
SHIPS ANALYSIS. THIS MODEST WIND SHEAR COMBINED WITH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE /SST/ VALUES NEAR 28C AND AMPLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT /OHC/
ARE SUPPORTING DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE AT THIS TIME. THE
OUTFLOW PATTERN ALSO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A HEALTHY TROPICAL
CYCLONE. THE LATEST UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE OF CURRENT INTENSITY IS
5.4/100 KT. THE MOST RECENT SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE 4.5/77 KT FROM SAB...AND 5.0/90 KT FROM PHFO AND JTWC. SINCE THE
OVERALL SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF JIMENA HAS IMPROVED...WE WILL
NUDGE THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 95 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION FOR JIMENA IS 315/04 KT. JIMENA IS CURRENTLY
BEING STEERED SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE SYSTEM. JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THIS SLOW FORWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS...WITH A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST STARTING IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THIS
SLOW NORTH-NORTHWEST MOTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL DAY 3...WITH
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD MOTION DURING DAYS 3-4. THE GLOBAL
FORECAST MODELS INDICATE A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF JIMENA BY DAY 5...WHICH WILL LIKELY TURN THE
SYSTEM TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE CURRENT TRACK IS NEAR THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE LATEST TVCN AND GFEX
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.

MODEST WIND SHEAR AND GRADUALLY DECREASING VALUES OF SST AND OHC
ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SLOW WEAKENING WILL
OCCUR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...THE ICON...IVCN AND
SHIPS GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW JIMENA WILL WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY
FROM DAYS 2-5 AS VALUES OF SST LOWER AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
INCREASES. THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE
PREVIOUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 18.5N 143.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 18.9N 144.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 19.4N 144.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 19.9N 144.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 20.5N 144.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 22.8N 145.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 07/0600Z 25.0N 147.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 08/0600Z 26.5N 149.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON
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#292 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Sep 03, 2015 8:11 am

6z GFS has this moving NW before a ridge to the north causes it to get blocked. Jimena pulls a Nadine and dives to the SSW before turning west as it skirts Hawaii.
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#293 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Sep 03, 2015 11:35 am

12z has a landfall near big island and Maui.
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#294 Postby Alyono » Thu Sep 03, 2015 11:44 am

doesn't make it as far north in this run
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#295 Postby Alyono » Thu Sep 03, 2015 11:47 am

may have a double landfall. The bizarro one followed by the traditional landfall
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#296 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Sep 03, 2015 12:34 pm

Also stronger this run. Still not going to believe anything until the Euro is on board.
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#297 Postby talkon » Thu Sep 03, 2015 12:46 pm

GFS keeps Jimena in the CPAC thru day 16.
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#298 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Sep 03, 2015 1:41 pm

12z ECMWF also has this getting blocked....
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#299 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Sep 03, 2015 2:01 pm

12Z euro big shift south.

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Seems like Oahu gets hit but hard to tell with the 24 hour intervals. But Kauai gets hit.
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#300 Postby Alyono » Thu Sep 03, 2015 2:20 pm

its Kauai on the 12Z ECMWF
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