EPAC: JIMENA - Post-Tropical

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#321 Postby Alyono » Fri Sep 04, 2015 11:23 am

UKMET does not go with the southwest turn
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#322 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Sep 04, 2015 1:37 pm

Alyono wrote:UKMET does not go with the southwest turn


12z GFS picks it up NW before it hits Hawaii now. Euro takes it even further south into Hawaii, Maui landfall.
Last edited by Kingarabian on Fri Sep 04, 2015 1:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#323 Postby Alyono » Fri Sep 04, 2015 1:48 pm

significant southward shift from the EC for sure
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#324 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Sep 04, 2015 2:11 pm

12z Euro initialized @ 954 and strikes Hawaii possibly as a minimal hurricane.

12z GFS initialized correctly @ 970mb but also keeps it as a hurricane near Hawaii.

Don't know what conditions they're looking at. Shear is supposed to increase to 25kts soon. Jimena looks increasingly shallow and weak right now. Doubt it's a hurricane.
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#325 Postby Alyono » Fri Sep 04, 2015 2:34 pm

Kingarabian wrote:12z Euro initialized @ 954 and strikes Hawaii possibly as a minimal hurricane.

12z GFS initialized correctly @ 970mb but also keeps it as a hurricane near Hawaii.

Don't know what conditions they're looking at. Shear is supposed to increase to 25kts soon. Jimena looks increasingly shallow and weak right now. Doubt it's a hurricane.


SHIPS shear may be using the CPHCs too far north track, which places the storm in the model outflow
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Re:

#326 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 04, 2015 2:51 pm

Kingarabian wrote:12z Euro initialized @ 954 and strikes Hawaii possibly as a minimal hurricane.

12z GFS initialized correctly @ 970mb but also keeps it as a hurricane near Hawaii.

Don't know what conditions they're looking at. Shear is supposed to increase to 25kts soon. Jimena looks increasingly shallow and weak right now. Doubt it's a hurricane.


Jimena is still a hurricane IMO.

Biggest cavet will be when the storm turns back to the W after diving SE IMO. Right now, I'm thinking this will pass to the north of Hawaii.
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Re: Re:

#327 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Sep 04, 2015 3:49 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:12z Euro initialized @ 954 and strikes Hawaii possibly as a minimal hurricane.

12z GFS initialized correctly @ 970mb but also keeps it as a hurricane near Hawaii.

Don't know what conditions they're looking at. Shear is supposed to increase to 25kts soon. Jimena looks increasingly shallow and weak right now. Doubt it's a hurricane.


Jimena is still a hurricane IMO.

Biggest cavet will be when the storm turns back to the W after diving SE IMO. Right now, I'm thinking this will pass to the north of Hawaii.
.

I think it can certainly miss to the north if it's a shallow storm by then being taken away by the westerly flow. I think the GFS was showing it being taken away by the westerly flow on its 6z run.
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Re: EPAC: JIMENA - Hurricane

#328 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 04, 2015 3:59 pm

HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 37
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP132015
1100 AM HST FRI SEP 04 2015

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF JIMENA HAS DEGRADED SLIGHTLY DURING
THE PAST SIX HOURS. WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS UP TO 19 KT
ACCORDING TO THE 1800 UTC CIMSS ANALYSIS...CAUSING OUTFLOW TO
BECOME DISRUPTED IN THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST QUADRANTS. THE AREA OF
DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER DECREASED SLIGHTLY IN SIZE WITH
CLOUD TOPS SHOWING SOME WARMING. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM HFO AND SAB CAME IN AT 4.0/65 KT...WHILE JTWC HAD 4.5/77 KT.
CIMSS ADT SUPPORTED 65 KT...AND CIMSS SATCON FROM 1630 UTC WAS AT 67
KT. BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE ESTIMATES AND A CONTINUATION OF THE
WEAKENING TREND...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 70 KT
FOR THIS ADVISORY.

JIMENA REMAINS WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH A SLOW
FORWARD MOTION. ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL CENTER WAS DIFFICULT TO
LOCATE WITH GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY...A WINDSAT PASS AT 1618 UTC AND
SSMIS PASSES AT 1629 AND 1643 UTC CONFIRMED THAT JIMENA WAS MOVING
CLOSE TO THE PRIOR FORECAST TRACK...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS SET
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...OR 320 DEGREES...AT 4 KT. JIMENA WILL
CONTINUE ON A SIMILAR TRACK WITH A RATHER SLOW FORWARD MOTION OVER
THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THIS MOTION WILL BE INDUCED BY A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PARKED JUST WEST OF HAWAII THAT WILL PRODUCE A
WEAKNESS IN THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER 1000 MILES NORTH OF
THE CYCLONE. THE GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED DURING THIS TIME BUT
DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY ON DAYS FOUR AND FIVE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
HAS BEEN NUDGED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED ON DAYS FOUR AND FIVE IN ANTICIPATION OF A BUILDING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE PRODUCING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A WEAKER JIMENA
BECOMING INCREASINGLY STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE TVCN TRACK...THOUGH IT
HAS A SLOWER FORWARD MOTION ON DAY FIVE. THE NOTABLE SOUTHERN
OUTLIER IS THE ECMWF...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FALLS BETWEEN THE
OPERATIONAL GFS TO THE SOUTH AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN TO THE NORTH.

GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. WESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO HOLD AT 15 TO 20 KT DURING THE
NEXT THREE DAYS THEN SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON DAYS FOUR AND
FIVE. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISRUPT THE OUTFLOW AND IS EXPECTED
TO LEAD TO CONTINUED SLOW WEAKENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY
FOLLOWS THE PRIOR FORECAST AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ICON.
THERE ARE NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE. THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF MAINTAIN A STRONGER CYCLONE...WHILE THE GFDL AND HWRF SUGGEST
A RAPID WEAKENING LATE DAY FOUR AND DAY FIVE. MEANWHILE...SHIPS AND
LGEM WEAKEN JIMENA AT A MUCH FASTER RATE THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 20.0N 145.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 20.5N 145.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 21.4N 146.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 22.5N 146.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 23.6N 147.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 24.9N 150.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 24.9N 152.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 09/1800Z 24.7N 155.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
FORECASTER WROE
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#329 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Sep 04, 2015 4:06 pm

:uarrow:

Well written discussion.

Lot's of variables in place and a tough forecast in store.

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Not too shabby.
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#330 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Sep 04, 2015 5:29 pm

18z GFS further back south, Kauai hit.
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#331 Postby Alyono » Fri Sep 04, 2015 6:15 pm

it hits Kauai as a depression, however. Far more reasonable given the upwelled waters this is currently over
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#332 Postby Alyono » Fri Sep 04, 2015 6:16 pm

In past storms that have sat in place as long as this one has, the SSTs have cooled by as much as 6C. Ophelia and Nate ended up, I believe, over 22C water temps due to upwelling
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Re:

#333 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 04, 2015 6:26 pm

Alyono wrote:In past storms that have sat in place as long as this one has, the SSTs have cooled by as much as 6C. Ophelia and Nate ended up, I believe, over 22C water temps due to upwelling


This isn't stalling though, just moving slowly.
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Re: Re:

#334 Postby Alyono » Fri Sep 04, 2015 8:52 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
Alyono wrote:In past storms that have sat in place as long as this one has, the SSTs have cooled by as much as 6C. Ophelia and Nate ended up, I believe, over 22C water temps due to upwelling


This isn't stalling though, just moving slowly.


its moving so slowly, and it is so large, that the same type of upwelling is likely happening
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#335 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Sep 04, 2015 8:54 pm

More important than cooler SST's, CIMSS is showing a lot of strong shear soon.
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Re: Re:

#336 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 04, 2015 9:12 pm

Alyono wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:
Alyono wrote:In past storms that have sat in place as long as this one has, the SSTs have cooled by as much as 6C. Ophelia and Nate ended up, I believe, over 22C water temps due to upwelling


This isn't stalling though, just moving slowly.


its moving so slowly, and it is so large, that the same type of upwelling is likely happening


The storm's radius of maximum winds isn't overly large. In addition, the HWRF only brings the SST's down to 24C compared to 13-15C during Blanca (actually upwelling wit that was near 20C).

My biggest issue from here on in is shear and that is mostly likely why the HWRF kills this north of Hawaii in 5 days.
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Re: Re:

#337 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Sep 04, 2015 9:42 pm


The storm's radius of maximum winds isn't overly large. In addition, the HWRF only brings the SST's down to 24C compared to 13-15C during Blanca (actually upwelling wit that was near 20C).

My biggest issue from here on in is shear and that is mostly likely why the HWRF kills this north of Hawaii in 5 days.


But it's rather interesting how well Igancio fared under the Hawaiian shear.

It's wind radius is pretty big for a weak looking storm. TS winds almost stretch out 200 miles now looking at a recent ASCAT.
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Re: Re:

#338 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 04, 2015 9:47 pm

Kingarabian wrote:

The storm's radius of maximum winds isn't overly large. In addition, the HWRF only brings the SST's down to 24C compared to 13-15C during Blanca (actually upwelling wit that was near 20C).

My biggest issue from here on in is shear and that is mostly likely why the HWRF kills this north of Hawaii in 5 days.


But it's rather interesting how well Igancio fared under the Hawaiian shear.

It's wind radius is pretty big for a weak looking storm. TS winds almost stretch out 200 miles now looking at a recent ASCAT.


TS winds don't upwelling too much. It's the 50 and especially 65 knt winds that really create upwelling.

The GHS was weaker for Ignacio than Jimena.
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Re: EPAC: JIMENA - Hurricane

#339 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 04, 2015 9:55 pm

HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 38
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP132015
500 PM HST FRI SEP 04 2015

JIMENA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS
CONFINED TO NEAR THE CENTER WITH NO SIGN OF AN EYE. OUTFLOW HAS
IMPROVED IN THE WESTERN QUADRANT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH WESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASING TO MORE THAN 20 KT IN THE 0000 UTC
CIMSS ANALYSIS...THIS BURST OF OUTFLOW TO THE WEST SHOULD BE SHORT
LIVED. AN ASCAT PASS AT 1910 UTC DETECTED NUMEROUS AREAS OF 60 KT
WINDS IN NORTHWEST QUADRANT...AND GIVEN THE LOW BIAS OF ASCAT...
JIMENA WAS VERY LIKELY 10 KT STRONGER AT THE TIME. DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES CAME IN AT 4.0/65 KT FROM ALL THE FIX
AGENCIES...WHILE CIMSS ADT WAS DOWN TO LESS THAN 60 KT. THUS...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY IS LOWERED TO 65 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWEST...OR 330
DEGREES...AT 3 KT. JIMENA WILL CONTINUE ON A SIMILAR TRACK WITH A
RATHER SLOW FORWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. THIS
MOTION WILL BE INDUCED BY A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PARKED JUST
WEST OF HAWAII THAT WILL MAINTAIN A WEAKNESS IN THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER 1000 MILES NORTH OF JIMENA. THE GUIDANCE IS REMAINS
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED DURING THIS TIME BUT CONTINUES TO DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY ON DAYS FOUR AND FIVE. THIS MODEL DISAGREEMENT HINGES
UPON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A RIDGE ALOFT OVER AND NORTH OF HAWAII
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN
NOTABLE SOUTHERN OUTLIERS...WHILE THE OFFICIAL TRACK CARRIES JIMENA
WESTWARD...CLOSE TO TVCN AND SOUTH OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS ON
DAYS FOUR AND FIVE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM
THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE ASIDE FROM AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON DAY
FIVE.

CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 20 KT OR MORE WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE NEXT THREE DAYS THEN SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON DAYS FOUR
AND FIVE. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISRUPT THE OUTFLOW AND LEAD TO
CONTINUED SLOW WEAKENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS
THE PRIOR FORECAST TREND AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ICON AND
HWRF. HOWEVER...NOTABLE DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE GUIDANCE. THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF MAINTAIN A STRONGER CYCLONE...WHILE SHIPS AND LGEM
WEAKEN JIMENA AT A MUCH FASTER RATE.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 20.3N 145.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 21.0N 146.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 22.0N 146.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 23.0N 147.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 23.9N 148.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 24.8N 150.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 24.8N 153.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 10/0000Z 24.6N 157.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
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#340 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Sep 04, 2015 11:46 pm

00z GFS Tropicsl storm Kauai landfall.
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