EPAC: JIMENA - Post-Tropical

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Kingarabian
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Re:

#341 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Sep 05, 2015 12:10 am

spiral wrote:That GFS 00Z is a very sharp recurve if you buy it even odd looking.


The south drop is odd looking for sure. But it happens, usually in the Atlantic though. Only reason anyone is giving it weight is because the GFS and Euro are practically insisting on it happening. It's also odd how they show it going south at times despite having Jimena really weak and shallow.
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#342 Postby Alyono » Sat Sep 05, 2015 12:12 am

I'd like to see Ensemble support before believing a Hawaii landfall, however
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#343 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Sep 05, 2015 1:44 am

00z Euro has it west and North of Kauai.
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Re:

#344 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Sep 05, 2015 2:03 am

spiral wrote::uarrow: That's good news. GFS was even cranking the cyclone up on the 0z... f144 looked a cane.
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/GFSTROPEPA ... sloop.html


Yes. It just seems that Jimena will be in an unfavorable environment for it to be deep enough to feel that Ridge to the extent the Euro and GFS show. Unfortunately the GFS and Euro will continue to change their tracks since it's still nearly a week out.

And why does the Euro keep initializing Jimena at 959MB?
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#345 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Sep 05, 2015 2:50 am

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Some improvements before the shear shifts to high gear.
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#346 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Sep 05, 2015 2:55 am

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#347 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Sep 05, 2015 4:10 am

000
WTPA44 PHFO 050900
TCDCP4

HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 39
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP132015
1100 PM HST FRI SEP 04 2015

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE OUTFLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH JIMENA HAS RECENTLY IMPROVED...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST
SEMICIRCLE...AND IT APPEARS THAT JIMENA HAS INTENSIFIED SOMEWHAT
SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A SERIES OF MICROWAVE OVERPASSES
BETWEEN 0301Z AND 0343Z WERE HELPFUL IN LOCATING THE CENTER...BEFORE
THE RE-APPEARANCE OF AN EYE IN CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY AROUND 0600Z.
TEMPERATURES IN THE EYE WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY AT 0600Z...WHILE DVORAK
DATA-T VALUES BASED ON 0530Z IMAGERY YIELDED T3.5/55 KT FROM
SAB...T4.0/65 KT FROM PGTW...AND T4.5/77 KT FROM PHFO. WHILE THE
CLOUD-FILLED EYE HAS WARMED SOMEWHAT IN THE LAST COUPLE OF SATELLITE
IMAGES...THE IMPROVED SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF THE CYCLONE LED TO AN
INCREASE IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

BASED ON A 0343Z SSMI PASS THAT INDICATED A NORTHEASTWARD TILT
WITH HEIGHT DUE TO THE ONGOING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WAS ESTIMATED TO BE ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE EYE...THUS YIELDING
A CURRENT MOTION VECTOR OF 330/06 KT. JIMENA IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
COMPLEX STEERING PATTERN...WITH DEEP LAYER RIDGES CENTERED NEARBY
TO SOUTHEAST...AND TO THE DISTANT NORTH. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH OF JIMENA...
WHILE THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH MOVES LITTLE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...AND A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. AFTER THIS TIME...THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST OF JIMENA...THEREBY IMPARTING AN
INCREASINGLY WESTWARD MOTION ON THE CYCLONE. THE UPDATED TRACK
FORECAST IS FASTER AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS THROUGH 72
HOURS...AND THEN IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ON DAYS 4 AND 5. THE
0000Z RUN OF THE ECMWF SHIFTED NORTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS CYCLE...
AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHILE THE OPERATIONAL
GFS CONTINUES TO REPRESENT THE SOUTHERNMOST RELIABLE GUIDANCE
MEMBER. THE UPDATED FORECAST TRACK NOW LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF A
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THAT EXPANDS IN THE LATER PERIODS...AND LIES IN
BETWEEN GFEX CONSENSUS AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPER ENSEMBLE.

DESPITE THE RECENT INCREASE IN INTENSITY...WEAKENING IS STILL
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WEST TO SOUTHWEST VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OF 20 KT OR MORE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT THREE
DAYS...THEN SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON DAYS FOUR AND FIVE. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO A DISRUPTION OF THE OUTFLOW...RESULTING IN SLOW
WEAKENING. AFTER THE INITIAL INCREASE IN INTENSITY...THE UPDATED
OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE PRIOR FORECAST TREND. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS AFTER 36 HOURS...IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH IVCN CONSENSUS AND HWRF. NOTABLE DIFFERENCES
REMAIN IN THE GUIDANCE...AS THE GFS AND THE ECMWF MAINTAIN A STRONGER
CYCLONE...WHILE SHIPS AND LGEM WEAKEN JIMENA AT A MUCH FASTER
RATE...WITH SHIPS FORECASTING DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 20.9N 145.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 21.7N 146.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 22.8N 147.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 23.7N 148.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 24.6N 149.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 25.3N 151.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 09/0600Z 25.0N 154.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 10/0600Z 24.5N 158.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD
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#348 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Sep 05, 2015 5:15 am

06z GFS passes north of Hawaii in line with the Euro.
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#349 Postby Alyono » Sat Sep 05, 2015 9:03 am

doing a bit better now that it moved away from the upwelled waters
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#350 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Sep 05, 2015 11:14 am

Looks like dry air is doing a number on it right now.

12z GFS closer to Kauai if not a hit.
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Re: EPAC: JIMENA - Hurricane

#351 Postby Ntxw » Sat Sep 05, 2015 11:17 am

She doesn't look too great this morning. EPAC systems of late likes to have a second life after peaking and weakening, is this a possibility? Or conditions are not that great for that?

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Re: EPAC: JIMENA - Hurricane

#352 Postby wxman57 » Sat Sep 05, 2015 3:09 pm

GFS indicates 40-50kts of shear impacting it from the SW-WSW by tomorrow and continuing until it's past Hawaii. That would mean Jimena should have an exposed center with any convection well north and east of the LLC. Center is already becoming exposed now, an indication of the increasing shear. Odds are that the Hawaiian Islands will see no significant impact.
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#353 Postby Alyono » Sat Sep 05, 2015 3:14 pm

very little ensemble support for a significant Hawaii impact
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Re: EPAC: JIMENA - Hurricane

#354 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 05, 2015 4:03 pm

HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 41
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP132015
1100 AM HST SAT SEP 05 2015

JIMENA HAS ALL THE SIGNS OF A SHEARED WEAKENING TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES IN THE
VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS
SOUTHWEST OF THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION AND THE UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW IS LIMITED TO JUST THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE LOW
LEVEL CENTER POSITION IS SUPPORTED BY 37 GHZ DATA IN THE SSMI PASSES
FROM 1431...1611 AND 1616 UTC. THE DETERIORATING CONDITION OF JIMENA
IS NOT SURPRISING CONSIDERING 27 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR FROM THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST BASED ON THE CIMSS 1800 UTC ANALYSIS. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES CHECKED IN AT 4.5/77 KT FROM PHFO AND JTWC...AND
3.5/55 KT FROM SAB. THE UW/CIMSS 1800 UTC ADT ESTIMATE WAS 59 KT.
BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF THESE ESTIMATES...THE CURRENT INTENSITY FOR
THIS ADVISORY IS 65 KT WHICH IS BARELY A HURRICANE...AND THIS MAY BE
GENEROUS. SATELLITE ALTIMETER DATA FROM ABOUT 1530 UTC WERE USED TO
EXPAND THE 12 FT SEAS RADII IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.

THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 325/7 KT AS JIMENA MOVES
BETWEEN A LARGE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST AND A RIDGE
TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THE GLOBAL MODELS STRENGTHEN THE RIDGE TO THE
NORTH...THEN DEVELOP AN ANTICYLONE TO THE NORTHWEST OF JIMENA AFTER
72 HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WESTWARD TURN FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHTLY
SOUTH OF WEST TRACK IN THE 96 TO 120 HOUR TIME FRAME. THE MAIN
DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO THROUGH
48 HOURS WITH INCREASING SPREAD IN THE SOLUTIONS AFTERWARD. THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH SMALL NUDGES
TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF CONSENSUS...GFEX...THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

THE LARGE MID- AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS IS RESULTING IN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ACROSS JIMENA. THE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE...THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE FORECAST
TRACK ALSO KEEPS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
JUST ABOVE 26.5C. THE COMBINED PERSISTENCE OF THE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND THE BARELY ADEQUATE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A WEAKENING OF JIMENA THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE MAIN QUESTION AT THIS TIME IS HOW FAST THE WEAKENING
WILL OCCUR. SHIPS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND CALLS FOR DISSIPATION
BY 72 HOURS. HWRF AND GFDL ALSO SHOW WEAKENING BUT ARE MORE
CONSERVATIVE THAN SHIPS. THE FORECAST WEAKENS JIMENA STEADILY AND IS
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 21.8N 146.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 22.7N 147.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 23.9N 148.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 24.8N 149.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 25.2N 150.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 25.1N 153.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 09/1800Z 24.5N 156.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 10/1800Z 24.5N 160.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER KODAMA
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Re: EPAC: JIMENA - Tropical Storm

#355 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 05, 2015 9:51 pm

TROPICAL STORM JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 42
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP132015
500 PM HST SAT SEP 05 2015

JIMENA HAS DETERIORATED FURTHER SINCE THIS MORNING AND DEEP
CONVECTION IN RECENT IMAGES HAS BEEN LIMITED TO A PRIMARY RAIN BAND
IN THE NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE. ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL CENTER
REMAINS OBSCURED...THE CURVATURE OF NUMEROUS LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES
PROVIDES A REASONABLE APPROXIMATION OF ITS LOCATION AND CENTER
POSITIONS FROM THE FIX AGENCIES WERE CLUSTERED FAIRLY WELL. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES CAME IN AT 3.5/55 KT FROM PHFO AND SAB...AND
4.0/65 KT FROM JTWC. THE UW/CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE FROM 0000 UTC WAS 45
KT. AN AVERAGE OF THESE ESTIMATES...55 KT...WAS USED FOR THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF THIS ADVISORY. A 1943 UTC ASCAT PASS WAS USED TO EXPAND
THE WIND RADII ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION A BIT WHILE
TRYING TO FACTOR IN THE OVERALL WEAKENING SINCE THE OBSERVATION
TIME.

A LARGE MID- AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ACROSS JIMENA. THIS WIND SHEAR...WHICH WAS 24 KT IN THE 0000 UTC
UW/CIMSS ANALYSIS...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT THESE LEVELS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND SLOWLY STRENGTHEN
TO MORE THAN 30 KT AFTER 96 HOURS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG
THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO 26.5C...WHICH IS BARELY
ADEQUATE. GIVEN THE CURRENT DECLINING STATE OF JIMENA AND THE POOR
UPCOMING ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS...IT APPEARS THAT SHIPS IS HANDLING
THE SITUATION BETTER THAN THE OTHER INTENSITY MODELS SUCH AS THE
HWRF AND GFDL. THUS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
TOWARDS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE BUT IS CONSERVATIVE IN THAT IT
MAINTAINS A VIABLE TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WHEREAS SHIPS DISSIPATES JIMENA AFTER 60 HOURS. NATURALLY...IF THE
CONDITION OF JIMENA CONTINUES TO DECLINE...SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS WILL
NEED TO REFLECT A QUICKER PATH TO POST-TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW STATUS.

JIMENA HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN THE ABOVE-MENTIONED MID- AND
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND A
RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THE GLOBAL MODELS STRENGTHEN THE RIDGE
TO THE NORTH...THEN DEVELOP AN ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST OF JIMENA
AFTER 72 HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GENERAL WESTWARD TURN...WITH
THE AMOUNT OF TURN VARYING AMONG THE DIFFERENT MODELS. THE CURRENT
FORECAST HAS BEEN ALIGNED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CLOSE
TO THE ECMWF FORECAST TRACK ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE. NOTE THAT EVEN IF JIMENA LOSES MOST OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION
AND BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM...THE BAM-SHALLOW FORECAST IS STILL
RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS AND KEEPS JIMENA WELL
NORTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 22.5N 147.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 23.4N 147.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 24.4N 148.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 25.0N 150.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 25.4N 151.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 25.0N 154.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 10/0000Z 25.0N 157.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 11/0000Z 25.0N 161.0W 25 KT 30 MPH

$$
FORECASTER KODAMA
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Re: EPAC: JIMENA - Tropical Storm

#356 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 06, 2015 4:58 am

TROPICAL STORM JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 43
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP132015
1100 PM HST SAT SEP 05 2015

JIMENA CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A RATHER HARSH ENVIRONMENT...
CHARACTERIZED BY SIGNIFICANT /NEAR 25 KT PER UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS/
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT IS HELPING TO ENTRAIN DRY
MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL AIR INTO THE CIRCULATION. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS SEVERELY RESTRICTED OUTFLOW IN THE SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE...WITH
A CURVED BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING IN TOWARD THE CENTER FROM
THE NORTH. RECENT MICROWAVE OVERPASSES INCLUDE A RECENTLY ARRIVED
0526Z SSMIS IMAGE AS WELL AS A 0326Z SSMIS IMAGE...BOTH OF WHICH
SHOW THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER /LLCC/ IS BECOMING
DETACHED FROM THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION...WITH THE SYSTEM TILTED
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH HEIGHT. LATEST DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY /CI/ ESTIMATES WERE 3.5/55 KT FROM PHFO AND PGTW...WHILE
SAB INDICATED 3.0/45 KT. ADT CI VALUES FROM UW-CIMSS HAVE BEEN RIGHT
AROUND 3.2/49 KT FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. A BLEND OF THE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES LEADS TO AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY...THUS INDICATING THAT JIMENA HAS RAPIDLY WEAKENED OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS.

THE LLCC IS ESTIMATED TO BE ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE DIMINISHING
COLD CLOUD CANOPY...AND THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS PACKAGE IS
325/07 KT. THERE IS A GREATER THAN NORMAL AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...AS THE LLCC IS SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT...AND THE AFOREMENTIONED 0526Z SSMIS IMAGE SUGGESTS THAT
THE INITIAL POSITION FOR THIS PACKAGE MAY HAVE BEEN A LITTLE TOO
FAR TO THE SOUTHWEST. JIMENA CONTINUES TO MOVE BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM...TOWARD A TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST. AFTER ABOUT 36 HOURS...
THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST TO BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN BEFORE THEN
BUILDING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF JIMENA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST...WITH THE AMOUNT OF TURN VARYING AMONG THE
DIFFERENT MODELS...PRIMARILY DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND
POSITION OF THE BUILDING RIDGE. THE UPDATED TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS
THE TRAJECTORY OF THE PREVIOUS VERY CLOSELY...BUT IS FASTER AND TO
THE RIGHT THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND THEN VERY CLOSE...BUT JUST NORTH
OF THE PREVIOUS THROUGH DAY 5. WHILE THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
HAD BEEN ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THAT SHOWS
INCREASING SPREAD IN THE LATER PERIODS...IT NOW LIES BETWEEN THE
TVCN AND GFEX CONSENSUS...AS THE LATEST ECMWF BUILDS A STRONGER
RIDGE TO THE WEST OF JIMENA...THEREBY IMPARTING A SOUTHWESTERLY
MOTION TO THE CYCLONE ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.

PERSISTENT AND RELATIVELY STRONG SHEAR...FIRST FROM THE SOUTHWEST...
AND THEN FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO THE
EVENTUAL DEMISE OF JIMENA. A BRIEF RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR IS
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY...AND THUS THE WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST TO
ABATE BRIEFLY...UNTIL SHEAR INCREASES AGAIN THEREAFTER. GIVEN THAT
THE RECENT RATE OF WEAKENING HAS BEEN WELL ANTICIPATED BY SHIPS
GUIDANCE...AND LESS SO BY OTHER MEMBERS OF THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS
IVCN...THE UPDATED INTENSITY FORECAST HAS GIVEN ADDITIONAL WEIGHT TO
SHIPS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IN THE LATER PERIODS WHERE IVCN
INDICATES RE-STRENGTHENING DUE TO CONTRIBUTIONS FROM THE GFDL...WHICH
BRINGS JIMENA BACK NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH ON DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE IN THAT IT
MAINTAINS A VIABLE TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH DAY 4...WHEREAS SHIPS
DISSIPATES JIMENA AFTER 60 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 22.9N 147.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 23.9N 148.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 24.8N 149.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 25.4N 151.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 25.6N 152.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 25.2N 155.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 25.0N 159.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 11/0600Z 25.0N 162.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD
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Re: EPAC: JIMENA - Tropical Storm

#357 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 06, 2015 3:55 pm

TROPICAL STORM JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 45
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP132015
1100 AM HST SUN SEP 06 2015

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF JIMENA HAS BEEN DEGRADING. WESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 23 KT ACCORDING TO THE LATEST CIMSS ANALYSIS
HAS LED TO THE EXPOSURE OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER WITH DEEP
CONVECTION RECENTLY LIMITED TO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THE WESTERLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ALSO PUSHING DRY AIR ALOFT OVER JIMENA AND IS
DISRUPTING OUTFLOW IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 2.5/35 KT FROM HFO AND SAB
TO 3.0/45 KT FROM JTWC...WHILE CIMSS ADT CAME IN AT JUST BELOW 35
KT. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS ESTIMATED BY LAST EVENING/S
ASCAT PASS...WE HAVE DECIDED TO WEAKEN JIMENA SLOWLY...AND THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE FOR THIS ADVISORY WILL BE 45 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS SET AT NORTHWEST...OR 325 DEGREES...AT 8 KT.
THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS...JIMENA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD A
WEAKNESS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FAR TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST CREATED BY A DEEP TROUGH WEST OF HAWAII ALONG 170W. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CURRENTLY ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF JIMENA BUILDS
OVER HAWAII AND DISPLACES THE DEEP TROUGH NORTHWESTWARD. IN
RESPONSE...THE LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY FAR NORTH OF JIMENA
WILL BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. AS A RESULT...A GENERAL
WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST RUNS ALONG THE LEFT SIDE OF A
RATHER TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH 36 HOURS...AND
THE GUIDANCE DIVERGES ON DAY TWO AND BEYOND...WHEN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS NEAR TVCN AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE ECMWF CONTINUES
TO BE THE SOUTHERN OUTLIER.

CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DISRUPTION TO THE
OUTFLOW ARE FORECAST TO EASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... BUT
WIND SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN WEAKENING AS
JIMENA PASSES OVER WATER TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND 26C. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS ICON THROUGH DAY THREE AND IS MORE
CONSERVATIVE THAN LGEM AND SHIPS...WHICH DISSIPATES JIMENA ON DAY
THREE.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 24.8N 148.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 25.7N 149.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 26.3N 150.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 26.4N 151.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 26.3N 153.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 26.1N 156.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 26.0N 159.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 11/1800Z 26.1N 162.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER WROE
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Re: EPAC: JIMENA - Tropical Storm

#358 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 07, 2015 5:50 am

TROPICAL STORM JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 47
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP132015
1100 PM HST SUN SEP 06 2015

JIMENA GENERATED A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER AND WEST OF THE
APPARENT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER /LLCC/ DURING THE EARLY
EVENING...BUT CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED ONCE AGAIN SINCE THEN...WITH
DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND FROM THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION
INTO THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM. 0600Z SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES CAME IN AT 2.5/35 KT FROM PHFO/SAB...AND
2.0/30KT FROM JTWC...WHILE THE UW-CIMSS ADT IS HOVERING NEAR
2.5/35KT. HOWEVER...THE EVENING ASCAT PASS DOES SHOW A SIGNIFICANT
AREA OF 45 KT WIND RETRIEVALS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF JIMENA...
AND WE HAVE MAINTAINED THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 45 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.

THE APPARENT LLCC OF JIMENA HAS BECOME OBSCURED UNDERNEATH LAYERED
CLOUDINESS AS SHOWN IN INFRARED SATELLITE ANIMATIONS DURING THE
EVENING...BUT A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES HAVE AIDED A SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 315/08 KT. THERE IS NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK REASONING. JIMENA HAS BEEN
MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST...TOWARD A WEAKNESS BETWEEN A MID/UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED FAR NORTHEAST OF HAWAII AND A DEEP
TROUGH CENTERED NEAR 170W. THE ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO
THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...DISPLACING THE LOW
WESTWARD. THIS WILL FORCE JIMENA TO TURN ONTO A WESTERLY TRACK
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. A WESTWARD MOTION IS THEN EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH 72 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN BACK TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST THEREAFTER AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
DEEPENS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK REMAINS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF A RATHER TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH 36 HOURS...THEN STAYS CLOSE TO THE TVCN
MODEL CONSENSUS AT 48 HOURS AND BEYOND...WHEN THE GUIDANCE SUITE
DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY. AS WITH PREVIOUS CYCLES...THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO BE THE SOUTHERN OUTLIER.

THE LATEST UW-CIMSS AND SHIPS ANALYSES SHOW RATHER STRONG
WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR NEAR 23 KT CONTINUING OVER
JIMENA. A TEMPORARY AND SLIGHT LESSENING OF THE WIND SHEAR IS
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...BUT JIMENA IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS THE CYCLONE STRUGGLES WITH ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AND
CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 26C. THE NEW
INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...
REMAINING CLOSE TO THE LGEM AND ICON CONSENSUS...BUT NOT WEAKENING
JIMENA AS RAPIDLY AS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE HWRF AND GFDL CONTINUE
TO INDICATE SOME REINTENSIFICATION AT DAY 3 AND BEYOND...BUT THIS
SEEMS QUITE UNLIKELY SINCE THE GLOBAL MODELS AND SHIPS SHOW STRONG
WESTERLY WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM AT THAT TIME. WE CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN JIMENA TO A DEPRESSION BY 48 HOURS...AND MAKE THE SYSTEM A
REMNANT LOW AT DAYS 4 AND 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 26.1N 149.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 26.6N 150.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 26.9N 152.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 27.0N 153.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 27.0N 155.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 27.2N 158.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 11/0600Z 27.5N 161.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 12/0600Z 29.0N 163.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER JACOBSON
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Re: EPAC: JIMENA - Tropical Storm

#359 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 07, 2015 11:51 am

TROPICAL STORM JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 48
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP132015
500 AM HST MON SEP 07 2015

JIMENA HAS GENERATED ANOTHER BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER /LLCC/ HAS
NOT BEEN EVIDENT OVERNIGHT VIA INFRARED...FOG PRODUCT OR VIIRS
DAY-NIGHT BAND IMAGERY...BUT A FEW MICROWAVE PASSES INDICATE THAT
THE LLCC IS PROBABLY LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION. 1200Z SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES CAME
IN AT 2.5/35 KT FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES...WHILE THE UW-CIMSS ADT IS
ALSO HOVERING NEAR 2.5/35KT. HOWEVER...THE SUNDAY EVENING ASCAT-B
PASS FOUND A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF 40-45 KT WIND RETRIEVALS IN THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF JIMENA...AND WITH DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING
NEAR AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC SINCE THAT TIME WE HAVE
MAINTAINED AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

DUE TO DIFFICULTIES IN LOCATING THE EXACT POSITION OF THE LLCC...
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 295/06 KT IS QUITE UNCERTAIN.
THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK REASONING.
JIMENA HAS BEEN MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...
TOWARD A WEAKNESS BETWEEN A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED FAR
NORTHEAST OF HAWAII AND A DEEP LOW CENTERED NEAR 170W. THE
ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...DISPLACING THE LOW WESTWARD. THIS WILL FORCE
JIMENA ONTO A DUE WESTERLY TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND IT
APPEARS THAT THE CYCLONE HAS ALREADY TURNED TO A WEST-NORTHWEST
HEADING. A WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FROM 24 THROUGH
72 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR
NORTHWEST THEREAFTER AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DEEPENS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS QUITE
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS...BUT IS NUDGED
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD...CLOSER TO THE TVCN MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND
VERY CLOSE TO THE GFS. BEYOND 72 HOURS...MOST OF THE RELIABLE
GUIDANCE SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE RIGHT. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK IS
NUDGED TO THE RIGHT AS WELL...AND REMAINS NEAR THE TVCN CONSENSUS.

THE LATEST UW-CIMSS AND SHIPS ANALYSES SHOW RATHER STRONG
WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 22 TO 25 KT CONTINUING OVER
JIMENA...AND THE SHEARED SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE CYCLONE
CERTAINLY SUPPORTS THIS. ALTHOUGH JIMENA HAS REMAINED QUITE
RESILIENT IN THE FACE OF HOSTILE CONDITIONS THUS FAR...WE STILL
EXPECT THE CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT STRUGGLES WITH
CONTINUED STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR AND ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL DRY AIR...
AND CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 26C. THE
NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...
REMAINING CLOSE TO THE LGEM...BUT NOT WEAKENING JIMENA AS RAPIDLY AS
THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE GFDL AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE HWRF
CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME REINTENSIFICATION BETWEEN 72 AND 96
HOURS...BUT THIS SEEMS QUITE UNLIKELY SINCE THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
SHIPS SHOW STRONG WESTERLY WIND SHEAR CONTINUING OVER THE SYSTEM AT
THAT TIME. WE CONTINUE TO WEAKEN JIMENA TO A DEPRESSION BY 48
HOURS...AND MAKE THE SYSTEM A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 26.3N 150.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 26.7N 151.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 26.8N 152.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 26.8N 154.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 26.7N 156.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 27.0N 159.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 28.0N 161.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 12/1200Z 30.0N 163.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER JACOBSON
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Re: EPAC: JIMENA - Tropical Storm

#360 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 07, 2015 4:45 pm

TROPICAL STORM JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 49
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP132015
1100 AM HST MON SEP 07 2015

DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BURST NEAR THE SUSPECTED LOW LEVEL
CENTER OF JIMENA...AND THERE IS SOME WEAK CURVED BANDING STRUCTURE.
OUTFLOW APPEARS VERY RESTRICTED IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT...
HOWEVER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE SATELLITE ANALYSTS
WERE A UNANIMOUS 2.5...OR 35 KT. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK
THAT MUCH DIFFERENT THAN LAST EVENING WHEN AN ASCAT-B PASS FOUND 45
KT WINDS WITH IT. IN ADDITION...THERE WAS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN
THE CENTER LOCATION ESTIMATES AND THEIR PROXIMITY TO THE REMAINING
DEEP CONVECTION. THERE SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO MAINTAIN
THE CURRENT INTENSITY AT A POSSIBLY GENEROUS 45 KT UNTIL WE SEE MORE
DEFINITIVE EVIDENCE OF WEAKENING.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 300/4...DRIVEN
MAINLY BY A HIGH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
CYCLONE. JIMENA CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE THROUGH RELENTLESS WESTERLY
SHEAR OF 20 TO 30 KT. THE MORE RELIABLE MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE AND
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS BECOMING DECOUPLED IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...
CHANGING THE STEERING FLOW TO A MORE SHALLOW LAYER. THIS SHOULD
INDUCE A MOTION JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST AFTER 24 HOURS AS LOW LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. BEYOND 48 HOURS...JIMENA
WILL BEGIN TO GET PICKED UP BY A DEVELOPING FRONTAL WAVE NORTH OF
FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE TRACK
GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF DIFFERENCES IN WHEN JIMENA FINALLY SUCCUMBS TO
WIND SHEAR. OUR CURRENT FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE
SOUTH...AND A LITTLE SLOWER...TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE WHICH HAS ALSO BEEN SHIFTING SOUTH. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED AND SHOWS A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS AND THE ECMWF. JIMENA IS STILL FORECAST TO BECOME A
REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4...BUT THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 26.4N 150.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 26.7N 151.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 26.7N 152.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 26.3N 154.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 26.2N 156.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 26.6N 158.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 27.2N 160.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 12/1800Z 29.0N 161.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD
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