ATL: FRED- Remnants - Discussion

[dexterlabio]

That's what I thought that Vince holds that record, and even managed to go all the way to Portugal if I'm not mistaken...

[Hammy]

06L FRED 150831 0600 15.3N 22.5W ATL 70 989

[TheEuropean]

History being made here. First time a TC of hurricane intensity is approaching the Cape Verde islands.

Sorry, but I think it's only the first time we know that a TC of hurricane intensity is approaching the Cape Verde islands. There is a little difference.

[LarryWx]

Folks,
Fred makes history as it becomes a hurricane the furthest east of any known (on record) within the MDR at 22.5W! This beats the old record of 23.0 set in 1900 with storm #3:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Congrats to Fred! This is the second quite interesting Fred in a row.

However, Fred didn't break the record for furthest east known tropical storm within the MDR. Whereas Fred became a TS at 18.9W, #3 of 1900 as well as TS #6 of 1988 both became a TS at 18.5W:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

[Hammy]

FHowever, Fred didn't break the record for furthest east known tropical storm within the MDR. Whereas Fred became a TS at 18.9W, #3 of 1900 as well as TS #6 of 1988 both became a TS at 18.5W

I would say quite the feat nonetheless considering how dead many (myself included) assumed the MDR would be this year.

[LarryWx]

FHowever, Fred didn't break the record for furthest east known tropical storm within the MDR. Whereas Fred became a TS at 18.9W, #3 of 1900 as well as TS #6 of 1988 both became a TS at 18.5W

I would say quite the feat nonetheless considering how dead many (myself included) assumed the MDR would be this year.

Indeed! Huge feat! Also, major kudos to the GFS and Euro, which both had many runs predicting Fred to form so close to African if I'm not mistaken.

[SouthernBreeze]

With forecasts predicting considerable weakening a few days out, would this not make it more favorable for Fred or remnants of him to drift westward?

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Folks,
Fred makes history as it becomes a hurricane the furthest east of any known (on record) within the MDR at 22.5W! This beats the old record of 23.0 set in 1900 with storm #3:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Congrats to Fred! This is the second quite interesting Fred in a row.

However, Fred didn't break the record for furthest east known tropical storm within the MDR. Whereas Fred became a TS at 18.9W, #3 of 1900 as well as TS #6 of 1988 both became a TS at 18.5W:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

The best track database, which eventually will be official, has been updated to reflect Fred having tropical storm force winds at 18.4W. (ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal062015.dat)

Edit: Here is the link about that:
"SPECIAL NOTES: Best track data is verified post season, so expect revisions after the season."
ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/README

[Chris_in_Tampa]

All tracks from the best track database where cyclones with hurricane force winds existed, though not necessarily when they were actually called hurricanes. It includes whatever information comes from the best track database, including post tropical points in the North Atlantic. (Any 65 knot or higher wind in the best track database is included here.) It does not include anywhere along a path where something was a tropical storm or less. All images include Fred through 06Z on August 31st.

Wide view:
http://imgur.com/q1IeG8f

Eastern Atlantic, with latitude and longitude:
http://imgur.com/A13HRXx

Closeup on near Cape Verde:
http://imgur.com/twxP33V

Edit: Better layering of wind category colors.

[leanne_uk]

Just had news from my friend who is in Santa Maria.... There is currently around 4 inches on the ground in her hotel and the winds are intensifying as expected.

They still have power at the minute but she doesn't know how much longer it will hold out. I am hoping that she is able to get pics over to me once things settle down and I shall post them accordingly.

The worrying thing is that no one at all seems to have been prepared for this.... I know that getting a hurricane is pretty much unheard of but even yesterday when my friend tried to speak to the staff about what was happening, she was told not to worry it will probably just rain for a bit and be a bit windy.
I'm just glad I was at least able to give her a proper heads up and she knew what she needed to do.

[Cyclenall]

something that popped in my mind just now, not saying this will happen at all but imagine if this became FRED and went on to hit land, especially Florida. The last was WILMA, that would be some Flintstones irony

Seriously though, I think this one is worth watching as we near the Peak of Hurricane season.

The Fred and Wilma thing is funny, that would have truly been something else. It was close to happening if you think just another named storm before Erika formed and then Erika (would be Fred) following the NHC forecast.

There's an exactly 0% chance of this making it to the US, so we'll have to wait till 2021 for that.

Its not 0%.

Last Fred was mightly similar

*Images Cut*

That's creepy, these aren't even common tracks or scenarios either. In fact they're very rare. Jimena was similar to the last one in the Epac too strength wise.

Could this actually rapidly intensify into a strong, even major, hurricane?

For some reason that idea popped into my mind when I woke up yesterday.

Doesn't seem like there is any news coming from the Cape Verdes. This hurricane is hitting during daylight.

[StormTracker]

Latest pass showing a rare sight this far east in the Atlantic. History being made here. First time a TC of hurricane intensity is approaching the Cape Verde islands.

Kinda sad only 9 pages for a historic system whereas Erika got up to 160 pages...I know location is important but i would be excited for both not just one...

How long were we tracking Erika? Fred blew up as soon as he jumped in the water! I don't think it's the case of "excited" or not in this situation...ST

[leanne_uk]

Well it ain't just outside the hotel that is struggling with surface water.... my friend now has around 2 inches in her room and it's rising

[leanne_uk]

In the last message she sent she told me that the hotel was moving everyone upto the 2nd floor.... not had anything from her since but she did say that the power was struggling.

Well it ain't just outside the hotel that is struggling with surface water.... my friend now has around 2 inches in her room and it's rising

Tell your friend if they can go upstairs from inside the hotel asap.

[leanne_uk]

She is in the Riu Garopa

Any idea of the hotel name.

[tolakram]

MIMIC loop

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2015_06L/webManager/basicGifDisplay48.html

live satellite loop
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_meteosat.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_met_4km_visir2_floater&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=15

[1900hurricane]

Any idea if it is surge flooding or freshwater runoff?

[LarryWx]

Folks,
Fred makes history as it becomes a hurricane the furthest east of any known (on record) within the MDR at 22.5W! This beats the old record of 23.0 set in 1900 with storm #3:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Congrats to Fred! This is the second quite interesting Fred in a row.

However, Fred didn't break the record for furthest east known tropical storm within the MDR. Whereas Fred became a TS at 18.9W, #3 of 1900 as well as TS #6 of 1988 both became a TS at 18.5W:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

The best track database, which eventually will be official, has been updated to reflect Fred having tropical storm force winds at 18.4W. (ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal062015.dat)

Edit: Here is the link about that:
"SPECIAL NOTES: Best track data is verified post season, so expect revisions after the season."
ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/README

Thanks for this info. So, it looks like Fred will officially become also furthest east known TS in MDR by 0.1 degree if this best track will become official!

[1900hurricane]

A few hour old SSMIS pass showed a pretty decent eyewall.

[AutoPenalti]

It looks to have peaked for now.