ATL: FRED- Remnants - Discussion

[ScottNAtlanta]

I'd say it looks like Fred now. Erika never looked this good

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[northjaxpro]

It does amaze me how some people forget about the Cape Verde Islands as being.inhabited lol...

[northjaxpro]

I'd say it looks like Fred now. Erika never looked this good

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

I agree with you. Look at thiis thing, based on satellite presentation alone it is Fred imo. An impressive looking tropical cyclone for sure.

[abajan]

It does amaze me how some people forget about the Cape Verde Islands as being.inhabited lol...

Yep. They do it with Bermuda too. S2K really ought to have a rule that no storm having a potential impact on any inhabited landmass be referred to as a fish. Many of us find it offensive.

Anyway, kinda getting off-topic here. As to 99L, it sure looks like it means business!

[galaxy401]

80%

Satellite pictures indicate that thunderstorm activity associated
with a low pressure area that recently moved off of the west coast
of Africa is becoming better organized, and a tropical depression
could be forming. If this development trend continues, advisories
would likely be initiated tonight or Sunday. This system is
expected to move northwest toward the Cape Verde Islands at 10 to
15 mph, and interests in those islands should closely monitor the
progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

[EquusStorm]

Yeah, I haven't seen a tropical wave come off the coast of Africa this organized in quite a while. I guess it won't take much for them to pull the trigger on advisories.

If I recall correctly, the Cape Verde Islands are very mountainous and rather prone to mudslides and other severe impacts from heavy rain, so it could be quite a concern. Fran in 1984 killed 31 people on the islands from flooding and mudslides.

[leanne_uk]

I have a friend from here in the UK that is currently on holiday in Santa Maria, Cape Verde.... she has not been given any info on the potential for bad weather and is a little concerned.

What kind of time frame would we be looking at for interaction with this invest and the islands? I enitially told her Monday/Tuesday but could someone more experienced give me a better idea so I can give her the best advise.

Thanks

[cycloneye]

Impressive invest.

[floridasun78]

big too this likely will go out to see what i seen one form out their go out to sea most the time

[cycloneye]

As of 00:00 UTC Aug 30, 2015:


Location: 10.9°N 17.8°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1010 mb
Radius of Circulation: 180 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 60 NM

[StormTracker]

The Cape Verde islands are so small and 99L is so big, they need to use the eye-test since there will be no recon for a while and issue some kind of warnings tonite don't you think? Not to jump the gun on this, but just to give them a heads-up of some sort? I know this doesn't look right, an invest jumping off the coast of Africa and heading straight towards them, but hey, it's happened 2wice before from what I've read in this thread! And to my untrained-eyes, I would skip the TD and go with a TS!


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just educated opinions of this poster. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[gatorcane]

Saved loop, looks to have finally started some movement to the NW:

[CrazyC83]

TXNT26 KNES 300013
TCSNTL

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (99L)

B. 29/2345Z

C. 11.1N

D. 17.6W

E. THREE/MET-10

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS/AMSU

H. REMARKS...MICROWAVE AND GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY SUGGESTING THE SYSTEM
HAS CONSOLIDATED AND IS BETTER DEFINED IN THE LOW LEVELS. DT IS 1.5
BASED ON .3-.35 BANDING. MET IS 1.0 BASED ON DEVELOPMENT COMPARED TO
24 HOURS AGO. PT IS 1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

29/2038Z 11.3N 17.5W SSMIS
29/2214Z 11.5N 17.5W AMSU


...LIDDICK

[Hammy]

Here we go again, another system that looks good on satellite but doesn't look at all closed on satellite.

[HURAKAN]

Here we go again, another system that looks good on satellite but doesn't look at all closed on satellite.

It would be difficult for the system to cut off the Monsoon trough until it pulls away .. the resolution of the ASCAT pass may not be able to resolve if it's completely closed or not

[cycloneye]

Hammy,you posted that ASCAT at the 90L thread but I moved it here.

[Hammy]

Hammy,you posted that ASCAT at the 90L thread but I moved it here.

I got the threads confused, watching Erika's back and fourth for three days sort of fried my brain.

[CrazyC83]

This would be a great time for a Recon flight to check, but there are no planes stationed in Cape Verde.

[Hammy]

No upgrade by the looks of it, as expected. Hopefully the rain isn't nearly as bad there as Erika caused in the Antilles.

[cycloneye]

This would be a great time for a Recon flight to check, but there are no planes stationed in Cape Verde.

Maybe the Global Hawk?