ATL: FRED- Remnants - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3765
Age: 35
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

#221 Postby Hammy » Tue Sep 01, 2015 11:37 pm

Latest satellite shows it's completely decoupled and most convection is gone.
0 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
---
My comics.
http://tba.cfw.me/
http://tbakids.cfw.me/

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114475
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: FRED- Tropical Storm - Discussion

#222 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 02, 2015 4:59 am

TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015
500 AM AST WED SEP 02 2015

Fred has been devoid of significant deep convection near the
center for almost 6 hours. The pronounced upper-level circulation
and associated convection is displaced at least 150 n mi to the
east of the now fully exposed low-level circulation due to strong
westerly vertical wind shear. The initial intensity of 40 kt is
based on a gradual spin down of the 45-kt ASCAT-B vortex mentioned
in the previous discussion, and a blend of 35-kt and 45-kt Dvorak
satellite intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB, respectively.

Now that the upper-level circulation has decoupled from the low- and
mid-level circulations, it is unlikely that Fred will restrengthen
since the cyclone will be moving over cooler SSTs of about 26 deg C,
into even stronger shear in excess of 30 kt, and also into a much
drier airmass. Cloud top temperatures in the radius of maximum
winds are only in the -10 to -20 deg C range, which suggests that
Fred's circulation now likely only extends no higher than the 400-mb
level, if that. As a result, Fred should continue to slowly spin
down and become a depression within the next 18-24 hours, and
degenerate into a remnant low within 36 hours, if not sooner. The
NHC intensity forecast follows a blend of the SHIPS, LGEM, and HWRF
models, which steadily weaken Fred, and is lower than the IVCN model
due to the GFDL model re-strengthening Fred into a 75-kt hurricane
again, which has created a high bias in the consensus.

The initial motion estimate is 295/09. There remains no significant
change to the previous track forecast or reasoning. Fred is
expected to continue moving west-northwestward for the next 72 hours
or so while it remains embedded within the trade wind flow south of
the Bermuda-Azores subtropical high. After that time, the models
continue to forecast a mid-latitude trough to dig southward over
the central Atlantic and erode the western portion of the ridge,
allowing Fred to turn slowly northwestward by 96 hours and
northward by 120 hours. The new forecast track is a tad south of
the previous advisory track, mainly due to the more southerly
initial position. The track forecast also lies along the southern
edge of the guidance envelope and is left of the TVCA consensus
model due to the more northerly track created by the much stronger
and vertically deeper GFDL model, which has strongly biased the
consensus model with a more northward and eastward track.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 19.5N 30.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 20.0N 31.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 20.7N 32.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 21.2N 34.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 04/0600Z 21.6N 35.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 05/0600Z 22.3N 39.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 06/0600Z 23.5N 41.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 07/0600Z 25.6N 43.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 18122
Age: 61
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: FRED- Tropical Storm - Discussion

#223 Postby wxman57 » Wed Sep 02, 2015 7:43 am

Downgrade to TD likely on the next advisory. It's just a convectionless swirl now.
0 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 14431
Age: 55
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: FRED- Tropical Storm - Discussion

#224 Postby tolakram » Wed Sep 02, 2015 7:54 am

0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

AutoPenalti
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1711
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm

Re: ATL: FRED- Tropical Storm - Discussion

#225 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Sep 02, 2015 8:13 am

wxman57 wrote:Downgrade to TD likely on the next advisory. It's just a convectionless swirl now.

It looks really cool though, I'm not going to lie.
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 18122
Age: 61
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: FRED- Tropical Storm - Discussion

#226 Postby wxman57 » Wed Sep 02, 2015 8:41 am

NHC just issued new model guidance initializing Fred at 35kts. I guess they're going to keep it a TS this morning. Looking like a quiet Labor Day weekend across the Atlantic this year.
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 27370
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: ATL: FRED- Tropical Storm - Discussion

#227 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 02, 2015 9:06 am

wxman57 wrote:NHC just issued new model guidance initializing Fred at 35kts. I guess they're going to keep it a TS this morning. Looking like a quiet Labor Day weekend across the Atlantic this year.


That's how tourism especially likes it...they can have a carefree last long weekend of the summer. It isn't always that way.
0 likes   

User avatar
galaxy401
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1397
Age: 23
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:04 pm
Location: Casa Grande, Arizona

#228 Postby galaxy401 » Wed Sep 02, 2015 9:37 am

Still 40 knts.

TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015
1100 AM AST WED SEP 02 2015

Fred has been without deep convection for about 12 hours and
consists of a tight swirl of low- to mid-level clouds. The
circulation remains fairly strong and the initial wind speed is
maintained at 40 kt, which is in agreement with data from a recent
ASCAT overpass. If organized deep convection does not return very
soon, which appears unlikely, Fred will become a post-tropical
cyclone this afternoon. Strong westerly shear, marginal sea surface
temperatures, and dry mid-level air should cause the circulation to
gradually spin down during the next few days. Very late in the
forecast period, the remnant low could be over slightly warmer SSTs
and in an area of lower shear. Redevelopment appears unlikely,
however, due to a dry and stable air mass over the east-central
Atlantic.

Fred is moving west-northwestward at about 9 kt. The forecast calls
for the cyclone to continue on a west-northwestward heading over
the next 72 hours to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge over the
eastern Atlantic. After that time, the remnant low is predicted to
turn turn northwestward, and then north-northwestward while it
moves around the western periphery of a low-level high pressure
area centered south of the Azores. The new NHC track forecast is
in good agreement with the latest ECMWF, which is along the
southern edge of the model envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 19.8N 30.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 20.2N 32.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 03/1200Z 20.9N 33.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 04/0000Z 21.5N 35.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 04/1200Z 21.9N 36.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 05/1200Z 22.7N 39.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 06/1200Z 24.2N 41.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 07/1200Z 26.5N 42.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown
0 likes   
I don't get hurricanes here but I do get their remnants.

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114475
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: FRED- Tropical Storm - Discussion

#229 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 02, 2015 3:37 pm

TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015
500 PM AST WED SEP 02 2015

Thunderstorm activity has redeveloped about 70 n mi north of the
center this afternoon. Thus, the system remains a tropical cyclone
for a bit longer. The initial intensity is set at 35 kt, partially
based on the earlier ASCAT data and an 1800 UTC Dvorak CI number of
2.5 from TAFB. Strong westerly shear and dry mid-level air
should cause Fred to weaken and become a remnant low within the
next 12 to 24 hours. Because Fred will remain over marginal SSTs
for the next couple of days, however, it is difficult to predict
when the system will completely lose its organized deep convection.
Near the end of the forecast period the cyclone could move into a
slightly more favorable environment, but few of the statistical or
dynamical models indicate restrengthening at this time.

The track forecast philosophy remains unchanged. Fred should move
west-northwestward to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge over
the eastern Atlantic during the next 2-3 days. After that time,
the cyclone should turn northwestward, and then northward around
the western portion of a high pressure area located south of the
Azores. The new NHC track is similar to the previous forecast and
is near the middle of the model envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 20.3N 31.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 20.7N 32.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 21.4N 34.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 04/0600Z 21.9N 36.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 04/1800Z 22.4N 37.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 05/1800Z 23.4N 40.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 06/1800Z 25.3N 41.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 07/1800Z 27.5N 42.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3765
Age: 35
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

#230 Postby Hammy » Wed Sep 02, 2015 4:14 pm

The fact that this is able to maintain itself (even if the convection is somewhat transient) sort of says something about the conditions compared to the last few years, especially 2013 when becoming a naked swirl would've been the end all together.
0 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
---
My comics.
http://tba.cfw.me/
http://tbakids.cfw.me/

User avatar
HurricaneBelle
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 639
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 6:12 pm
Location: Clearwater, FL

#231 Postby HurricaneBelle » Wed Sep 02, 2015 7:08 pm

When the time comes for Fred to go, instead of Bones, we need to play this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0B6TKClPFQA
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 20734
Age: 40
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: FRED- Tropical Storm - Discussion

#232 Postby gatorcane » Wed Sep 02, 2015 7:34 pm

wxman57 wrote:NHC just issued new model guidance initializing Fred at 35kts. I guess they're going to keep it a TS this morning. Looking like a quiet Labor Day weekend across the Atlantic this year.


Except for the new system getting ready to move off Africa that models have becoming increasingly more bullish on.
0 likes   

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3765
Age: 35
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

#233 Postby Hammy » Wed Sep 02, 2015 8:21 pm

Convection maintaining and expanding, after NHC stated the likelihood of being downgraded to post-tropical earlier today. Seems to be fighting off the shear well (or it's weakening) and has walled off the dry air surrounding it.
0 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
---
My comics.
http://tba.cfw.me/
http://tbakids.cfw.me/

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114475
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: FRED- Tropical Storm - Discussion

#234 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 02, 2015 9:38 pm

TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015
1100 PM AST WED SEP 02 2015

The cluster of thunderstorm activity that developed before the
previous advisory has persisted, with cloud tops colder than -80C
seen to the northeast of the partly exposed low-level center.
Satellite intensity estimates are unchanged since the previous
advisory, so the initial intensity remains 35 kt.

There is little change in either the forecast guidance or the
forecast track since the last advisory. Fred should move
west-northwestward to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge over
the eastern Atlantic during the next 2-3 days. After that time,
the cyclone should turn northwestward, and then northward between
the ridge and a low- to mid-level trough over the central Atlantic.
The new forecast track lies near the center of the guidance
envelope.

Fred is experiencing 25-30 kt of westerly vertical wind shear, and
the dynamical models suggest this will continue for the next 60-72
hours. This, in combination with dry air entraining into the
cyclone, should cause it to degenerate into a remnant low in 24-36
hours, if not earlier. After 72 hours, the remnants of Fred are
expected to reach an environment of warmer sea surface temperatures,
decreasing shear, and increasing moisture. In theory, this could
allow the system to regenerate. However, while the dynamical
models show the remnant low persisting through 120 hours, none of
them show any significant intensification in the more favorable
environment. Based on this, the forecast will continue to show a
weak remnant low through 120 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 20.6N 32.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 21.2N 33.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 21.8N 35.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 22.2N 37.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 05/0000Z 22.6N 38.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 06/0000Z 23.5N 41.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/0000Z 26.0N 42.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 08/0000Z 28.5N 41.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3765
Age: 35
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

#235 Postby Hammy » Thu Sep 03, 2015 12:22 am

Another strong burst of convection. Fred seems to be fighting off the shear by turning northward with it rather than plowing straight west like Erika did, and now seems to be moving NNW over the last several hours.
0 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
---
My comics.
http://tba.cfw.me/
http://tbakids.cfw.me/

User avatar
abajan
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3312
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 5:10 am
Location: Barbados

Re: ATL: FRED- Tropical Storm - Discussion

#236 Postby abajan » Thu Sep 03, 2015 7:46 am

spiral wrote:[img ]http://i.imgur.com/jF2XaJV.gif[/img]
This storm is amazing. It's defying the odds and is actually a bit stronger than yesterday! :lol:
0 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 14431
Age: 55
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: FRED- Tropical Storm - Discussion

#237 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 03, 2015 7:48 am

It's interesting how Fred should have dissipated yet continues this year where last year the exact opposite occurred.
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 18122
Age: 61
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: FRED- Tropical Storm - Discussion

#238 Postby wxman57 » Thu Sep 03, 2015 7:56 am

Fred has hit an area of increasing wind shear this morning, causing it to lose its convection once again. Back to a naked swirl.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114475
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: FRED- Tropical Storm - Discussion

#239 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 03, 2015 9:26 am

Closeup of spectacular sunrise in FRED.Look at the shadow obscuring the LLC.

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114475
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: FRED- Tropical Storm - Discussion

#240 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 03, 2015 9:35 am

TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015
1100 AM AST THU SEP 03 2015

As anticipated, a surge of strong upper-level westerly winds removed
most of the convection from Fred overnight, and again the cyclone
consists of a very vigorous swirl of low clouds. Just like
yesterday, a few new convective cells are redeveloping to the north
of the center. Assuming that the winds are gradually decaying, the
initial intensity has been lowered to 35 kt. The strong upper-level
winds affecting Fred are forecast to continue creating a very
hostile environment for the cyclone. Consequently, the NHC forecast
calls for Fred to become a remnant low in about 12 to 24 hours. By
the end of the forecast period, if Fred has not dissipated, models
are showing less shear. This combined with the presence of anomalous
warm waters in the North Atlantic, will provide a small opportunity
for Fred to redevelop some as indicated in the NHC forecast.

A weak to moderate ridge of high pressure over the North Atlantic
is steering Fred toward the west-northwest or 295 degrees at 9 kt.
In a couple of days, Fred or its remnants will be located on the
southwestern edge of the ridge, and will begin to move toward the
northwest and north. After 3 days, the system will then recurve
toward the northeast around the ridge. Although most of the track
models provided this solution, the NHC forecast is very close to the
consensus of the GFS and the ECMWF global models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 21.5N 34.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 21.9N 35.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 22.3N 37.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 05/0000Z 22.6N 38.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 05/1200Z 23.0N 40.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 06/1200Z 25.0N 42.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/1200Z 27.5N 41.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 08/1200Z 30.5N 38.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION

$$
Forecaster Avila
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here


Return to “2015”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest