ATL: FRED- Remnants - Discussion

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Re: ATL: FRED- Tropical Storm - Discussion

#241 Postby otowntiger » Thu Sep 03, 2015 9:41 am

cycloneye wrote:Closeup of spectacular sunrise in FRED.Look at the shadow obscuring the LLC.

Image

That is an AMAZING pic! I wish we could get pics like that more often for other storms.
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#242 Postby galaxy401 » Thu Sep 03, 2015 3:45 pm

TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015
500 PM AST THU SEP 03 2015

Despite the 35-kt westerly wind shear impinging on Fred, deep
convection, once again, regenerated near or over the center of the
vigorous low-level circulation this afternoon. Given the lack of
scatterometer data today, the initial intensity is kept at 35 kt
based on the blend of Dvorak estimates. It will be very difficult
for Fred to survive the very strong westerly wind shear which is
forecast to continue affecting the cyclone for the next couple of
days and the NHC forecast calls for Fred to become a remnant low in
about 24 hours. By the end of the forecast period, if Fred has not
completely dissipated, the shear could be lighter. This combined
with the presence of anomalously warm waters in the North Atlantic,
could provide a very small opportunity for Fred to redevelop. The
1200 UTC global models, however, show a less favorable environment
for Fred to redevelop than in earlier runs, and perhaps the
regeneration will not materialize.

A weak to moderate ridge of high pressure over the North Atlantic
continues to steer Fred toward the west-northwest or 295 degrees at
10 kt. In a couple of days, Fred or its remnants will be located on
the southwestern edge of the ridge, and will begin to move toward
the northwest and north. After 3 days, the system will recurve
toward the northeast in the mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC
forecast continues to be very close to the consensus of the GFS and
the ECMWF global models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 22.0N 35.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 22.4N 36.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 22.7N 38.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 05/0600Z 23.0N 40.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 05/1800Z 23.5N 42.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 06/1800Z 26.0N 43.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/1800Z 29.0N 40.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 08/1800Z 31.0N 38.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: ATL: FRED- Tropical Storm - Discussion

#243 Postby abajan » Thu Sep 03, 2015 6:13 pm

Tenacious Fred: Maintaining 35 knots MSW despite 35 knots of shear! :lol:
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#244 Postby galaxy401 » Thu Sep 03, 2015 8:13 pm

Umm the top image is Kevin not Fred.

Looks like it might be dead.

Image
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Re: ATL: FRED- Tropical Storm - Discussion

#245 Postby txwatcher91 » Thu Sep 03, 2015 10:18 pm

Fred refuses to die and is refiring convection near/north of the center. I don't think I've ever seen a more persistent LLC before!
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#246 Postby galaxy401 » Thu Sep 03, 2015 11:34 pm

Fred reminds me of several EPAC systems that constantly fire convection near the LLC despite unfavorable conditions. They usually last a couple days longer than they should have.
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Re: ATL: FRED- Tropical Storm - Discussion

#247 Postby abajan » Fri Sep 04, 2015 4:44 am

Believe it or not, it's still a tropical storm!
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Re: ATL: FRED- Tropical Storm - Discussion

#248 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 04, 2015 6:33 am

Still going . . . . .
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#249 Postby galaxy401 » Fri Sep 04, 2015 9:52 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 04 2015

Fred consists of a tight swirl of low clouds with intermittent
bursts of deep convection. There has been no scatterometer data over
the cyclone for several hours, but it appears that the circulation
is not as vigorous as it was yesterday. Dvorak T-numbers are
gradually decreasing, and on this basis, the initial intensity has
been lowered to 30 kt.

The shear is forecast to remain high during the next 48 hours or so,
resulting in additional weakening. Fred is expected to become a
remnant low tonight or Saturday, however, most of the global
models suggest that the shear near the system could relax in 3
days. If Fred still exists by then, and given that the ocean is
anomalously warm in the North Atlantic, there is a chance of
regeneration. This would likely occur after Fred or its remnants
recurve into the mid-latitude westerlies.

The depression is moving toward the west or 280 degrees at 9 kt,
steered by a subtropical high to its north. A strong mid-latitude
trough is forecast by the global models to deepen in the central
Atlantic during the next 2 days, and this pattern will force Fred to
recurve northeastward. This is indicated in the NHC forecast, which
follows the reliable dynamical guidance very closely. It is
interesting to note that the GFS global model in the past couple of
runs keeps Fred lingering across the North Atlantic for more than a
week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 22.3N 38.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 22.6N 39.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 23.0N 41.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 06/0000Z 24.0N 42.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 06/1200Z 25.0N 42.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/1200Z 28.0N 40.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
96H 08/1200Z 30.5N 36.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H 09/1200Z 34.0N 31.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION

$$
Forecaster Avila
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#250 Postby Hammy » Fri Sep 04, 2015 1:17 pm

Convection looks to be starting to build on the eastern side of the circulation again.
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Re: ATL: FRED- Tropical Depression - Discussion

#251 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 04, 2015 3:34 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015
500 PM AST FRI SEP 04 2015

The depression consists of a very tight circulation largely devoid
of deep convection. Recently a convective band is forming east of
the center, but it appears that each new burst of convection is
weaker than the previous one. It is estimated that the winds are
still 30 kt, and given the strong shear the NHC forecast calls for
Fred to become a remnant low in 24 hours or so. The GFS and UK
global models, as well as the SHIPS/GFS and SHIPS/ECMWF intensity
guidance, regenerate Fred by the end of the forecast period, and so
does the official forecast.

The steering pattern has not changed yet, and the depression is
still moving on a general west to west-northwest track at 8 kt. In
about 48 hours, a strong mid-latitude trough is forecast by the
global models to deepen in the central Atlantic. This pattern should
force the depression or its remnants to recurve and become embedded
within the mid-latitude westerly flow. The NHC forecast is within
the guidance envelope during the next 2 to 3 days and then lies
between the GFS and the multi-model consensus. The GFS insists on
keeping Fred meandering across the North Atlantic for more than a
week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 22.6N 39.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 22.8N 40.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 23.3N 41.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 06/0600Z 24.0N 42.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 06/1800Z 25.5N 42.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/1800Z 28.5N 39.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
96H 08/1800Z 31.5N 35.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H 09/1800Z 33.5N 31.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION

$$
Forecaster Avila
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#252 Postby Hammy » Fri Sep 04, 2015 9:34 pm

Each convective burst seems slightly less intense (it's out of the deep tropics afterall) but they are becoming more frequent at the same time.
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Re: ATL: FRED- Tropical Storm - Discussion

#253 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 04, 2015 9:36 pm

The unexpected has happened.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRED ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 04 2015

...FRED REGAINS TROPICAL STORM STATUS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.8N 40.1W
ABOUT 1305 MI...2100 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 04 2015

An ASCAT-A pass just before 0000 UTC showed a small area of 35-kt
winds northeast of Fred's center, and that is the basis for the
initial intensity, making Fred a tropical storm once again. The
central pressure has been adjusted upward to 1009 mb based on
observations from drifting buoy 13519, as it appears Fred is now
embedded in an environment of higher pressure. Despite rather
hostile vertical shear, Fred has managed to maintain enough
organized deep convection during the past couple of days to stave
off post-tropical status. The latest burst of convection is now
moving away from the low-level center, but this bursting pattern
seems likely to continue for the next couple of days as the cyclone
moves over gradually warmer waters in moderate to strong shear.
Since Fred has survived this long, it seems less likely that the
cyclone will become post-tropical in the short term, and that is no
longer shown in the official forecast. However, given our limited
ability to predict convective scale changes, this still remains a
possibility.

Little significant change in intensity is shown in the first 48
hours, as the guidance shows Fred between 30 and 35 kt during that
time. Subsequently, as the shear weakens all of the guidance shows
at least some strengthening. The NHC forecast shows only a modest
re-intensification later in the period, given the possibility that
the circulation of Fred could open up or be absorbed in 4 or 5 days
as shown by the GFS and ECMWF models.

The initial motion estimate is 290/09, and Fred should begin to move
around the western periphery of the subtropical ridge during the
next couple of days and then turn northeastward in the mid-latitude
westerlies. This cycle the models have trended faster with the
forward speed of Fred, and have shown a northward shift after 48
hours. The NHC forecast has been adjusted to account for these
trends, but now lies on the right side of the guidance envelope at
days 3 through 5. Given the large spread at these time ranges, and
the possibility that Fred could be absorbed or dissipate late in the
period, the extended portion of the track forecast is of lower than
normal confidence.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 22.8N 40.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 23.2N 41.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 23.9N 42.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 25.3N 42.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 27.1N 41.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 30.5N 38.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 34.5N 33.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 10/0000Z 36.0N 30.5W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan

NNNN
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#254 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 04, 2015 9:39 pm

Wow - models seem to fail again, no doubt this season is giving them fits.

How about how tenacious Fred is? :eek:

Snippet from latest disco (posted above):

Despite rather
hostile vertical shear, Fred has managed to maintain enough
organized deep convection during the past couple of days to stave
off post-tropical status.
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#255 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 04, 2015 9:43 pm

I remember seeing earlier this week that the conditions were better in that region...but it is like Fred can't be beaten! At this rate, maybe Hurricane Fred again in the medium to long term?

I know on Wednesday there was no convection for like 24 hours, maybe the final BT will show it as post-tropical then, and regaining TS status later? The TCR should be an interesting one.
Last edited by CrazyC83 on Fri Sep 04, 2015 9:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#256 Postby Hammy » Fri Sep 04, 2015 9:43 pm

Despite not being particularly strong this has been one of the more interesting storms to track. I see they are not only no longer forecasting degeneration (as it seems to be moving out of the coolest waters and worst shear) but now show regaining TS strength after weakening.
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Re:

#257 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 04, 2015 9:46 pm

Hammy wrote:Despite not being particularly strong this has been one of the more interesting storms to track. I see they are not only no longer forecasting degeneration (as it seems to be moving out of the coolest waters and worst shear) but now show regaining TS strength after weakening.


It does mention degeneration is still certainly possible, but it managed to survive 3 days in brutal conditions that it would have more likely done so by now.
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Re: ATL: FRED- Tropical Storm - Discussion

#258 Postby blp » Fri Sep 04, 2015 9:55 pm

txwatcher91 wrote:Fred refuses to die and is refiring convection near/north of the center. I don't think I've ever seen a more persistent LLC before!


You think this Fred is persistent. Take a look at the last Fred. I remember tracking it and thinking it would die every day only to survive.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2009/FRED/track.gif
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Re: ATL: FRED- Tropical Storm - Discussion

#259 Postby Hammy » Fri Sep 04, 2015 10:39 pm

blp wrote:
txwatcher91 wrote:Fred refuses to die and is refiring convection near/north of the center. I don't think I've ever seen a more persistent LLC before!


You think this Fred is persistent. Take a look at the last Fred. I remember tracking it and thinking it would die every day only to survive.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2009/FRED/track.gif


I'll have to give the prize to this year's Fred though, not only persisting but strengthening twice, with winds as high as the shear it's running through.
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Re: ATL: FRED- Tropical Storm - Discussion

#260 Postby LarryWx » Fri Sep 04, 2015 10:43 pm

blp wrote:
txwatcher91 wrote:Fred refuses to die and is refiring convection near/north of the center. I don't think I've ever seen a more persistent LLC before!


You think this Fred is persistent. Take a look at the last Fred. I remember tracking it and thinking it would die every day only to survive.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2009/FRED/track.gif


I remember Fred of 2009 quite well. Do you remember that the remnants came all of the way into the SE US?
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